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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: O Langford

Derby 0–1 Stoke

Full time · half time 0–0 · season 2026/2027

Home 2.85 fair 2.71
Draw 3.40 fair 4.15
Away ✓ 2.30 fair 2.57
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.91 fair 2.41
Over 2.5 1.91 fair 1.71

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Stoke
17 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 4
0.99 Expected goals (xG) 0.59
6 Corners 4
12 Fouls 10
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (123 league matches this season so far).
Result Stoke to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.64
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.54
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawStoke
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.1% 1–2 8.5% 2–1 8.3%

Statistics 2026/2027, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
0.60points / match
0.90scored / match
1.90conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 10 played · 9:19
Stoke before this match, all matches
1.60points / match
1.70scored / match
1.60conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 10 played · 17:16
Derby all matches all matches Stoke

Per match

0.90 Goals scored 1.70
1.90 Goals conceded 1.60
2.80 Total goals 3.30
0.96 xG created 0.93
1.76 xG allowed 1.76
12.30 Shots 11.30
3.90 Shots on target 3.70
14.40 Shots faced 16.10
5.50 Corners 4.40
5.40 Corners against 5.00
12.70 Fouls 14.10
2.40 Yellow cards 2.30
0.50 1st-half goals scored 1.10
1.10 1st-half goals conceded 0.40

How often Full Time

10% Wins 50%
30% Draws 10%
60% Losses 40%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
90% Over 1.5 goals 90%
60% Over 2.5 goals 80%
20% Over 3.5 goals 40%
10% Over 4.5 goals 20%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
60% Both teams scored 80%
10% Clean sheets 20%
30% Failed to score 0%

How often Half Time

30% Wins 50%
10% Draws 40%
60% Losses 10%
100% Over 0.5 goals 80%
40% Over 1.5 goals 40%
20% Over 2.5 goals 20%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Stoke all matches
Derby before this match, at home
0.40points / match
0.80scored / match
1.80conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 4:9
Stoke before this match, away
1.40points / match
1.40scored / match
2.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 7:10
Derby at home away Stoke

Per match

0.80 Goals scored 1.40
1.80 Goals conceded 2.00
2.60 Total goals 3.40
1.06 xG created 1.03
2.00 xG allowed 2.42
12.80 Shots 12.80
3.60 Shots on target 3.80
15.00 Shots faced 19.60
6.80 Corners 4.00
5.60 Corners against 6.60
11.60 Fouls 14.00
2.40 Yellow cards 2.80
0.60 1st-half goals scored 1.00
1.20 1st-half goals conceded 0.60

How often Full Time

0% Wins 40%
40% Draws 20%
60% Losses 40%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
80% Over 1.5 goals 100%
60% Over 2.5 goals 80%
20% Over 3.5 goals 40%
0% Over 4.5 goals 20%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
60% Both teams scored 100%
0% Clean sheets 0%
40% Failed to score 0%

How often Half Time

20% Wins 60%
20% Draws 20%
60% Losses 20%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
60% Over 1.5 goals 40%
20% Over 2.5 goals 20%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Stoke away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
14.10.26 QPR – Derby 4–1 (3–0) 1.663.804.50 1.80 2.00
10.10.26 Derby – Wrexham 1–1 (1–0) 2.703.202.57 2.00 1.80
19.09.26 Burnley – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 1.763.604.33 1.88 1.98
12.09.26 Derby – Birmingham 1–2 (1–1) 3.403.302.10 2.10 1.73
09.09.26 Derby – West Brom 0–1 (0–1) 3.003.252.30 1.98 1.88
05.09.26 West Ham – Derby 3–0 (1–0) 1.335.007.50 1.67 2.20
01.09.26 Portsmouth – Derby 0–2 (0–1) 1.863.404.00 2.00 1.85
29.08.26 Derby – Swansea 0–3 (0–2) 2.203.253.20 2.10 1.73
22.08.26 Derby – Cardiff 2–2 (1–2) 1.913.503.75 2.03 1.83
15.08.26 Charlton – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 2.653.202.65 2.20 1.67

Stoke all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
13.10.26 Stoke – Middlesbrough 2–3 (0–0) 3.503.501.96 1.73 2.10
10.10.26 Bolton – Stoke 1–2 (0–1) 2.653.402.45 1.88 1.98
19.09.26 Stoke – Sheffield United 2–1 (0–0) 2.303.402.85 1.91 1.91
12.09.26 Watford – Stoke 1–2 (0–1) 2.253.303.10 1.93 1.93
08.09.26 Cardiff – Stoke 1–1 (0–1) 1.963.603.50 1.62 2.30
05.09.26 Stoke – Charlton 4–0 (4–0) 2.053.253.50 2.10 1.73
01.09.26 Stoke – Norwich 1–0 (1–0) 3.403.602.01 1.80 2.00
29.08.26 Wolves – Stoke 4–1 (2–1) 1.454.336.50 1.73 2.10
22.08.26 Southampton – Stoke 3–1 (1–1) 1.574.005.00 1.73 2.10
15.08.26 Stoke – Swansea 1–2 (1–1) 2.323.203.10 2.10 1.73

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.10.26 Derby – Wrexham 1–1 (1–0) 2.703.202.57 2.00 1.80
12.09.26 Derby – Birmingham 1–2 (1–1) 3.403.302.10 2.10 1.73
09.09.26 Derby – West Brom 0–1 (0–1) 3.003.252.30 1.98 1.88
29.08.26 Derby – Swansea 0–3 (0–2) 2.203.253.20 2.10 1.73
22.08.26 Derby – Cardiff 2–2 (1–2) 1.913.503.75 2.03 1.83
02.05.26 Derby – Sheffield United 1–2 (1–0) 1.793.803.90 1.62 2.30
18.04.26 Derby – Oxford 1–0 (1–0) 1.863.404.10 2.10 1.73
06.04.26 Derby – Stoke 2–0 (0–0) 1.863.503.90 2.03 1.83
21.03.26 Derby – Birmingham 1–0 (1–0) 2.703.252.50 1.98 1.88
07.03.26 Derby – Sheffield Weds 2–1 (2–1) 1.245.2512.00 1.73 2.10

Stoke away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.10.26 Bolton – Stoke 1–2 (0–1) 2.653.402.45 1.88 1.98
12.09.26 Watford – Stoke 1–2 (0–1) 2.253.303.10 1.93 1.93
08.09.26 Cardiff – Stoke 1–1 (0–1) 1.963.603.50 1.62 2.30
29.08.26 Wolves – Stoke 4–1 (2–1) 1.454.336.50 1.73 2.10
22.08.26 Southampton – Stoke 3–1 (1–1) 1.574.005.00 1.73 2.10
02.05.26 Bristol City – Stoke 2–0 (1–0) 1.913.703.60 1.62 2.30
18.04.26 Wrexham – Stoke 2–0 (2–0) 1.713.704.50 1.83 2.03
06.04.26 Derby – Stoke 2–0 (0–0) 1.863.503.90 2.03 1.83
20.03.26 Preston – Stoke 3–1 (1–1) 2.453.252.75 2.10 1.73
07.03.26 Swansea – Stoke 2–0 (0–0) 2.013.303.70 2.10 1.73

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Derby winsDrawsStoke wins
6matches
2.50goals / match
67%over 2.5
67%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
06.04.26E1 Derby – Stoke 2–0 (0–0) 1.863.503.90 2.03 1.83
09.08.25E1 Stoke – Derby 3–1 (0–0) 2.303.203.20 2.50 1.53
03.05.25E1 Derby – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 2.053.004.20 2.50 1.53
02.11.24E1 Stoke – Derby 2–1 (1–0) 2.203.403.25 2.03 1.83
30.12.21E1 Stoke – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 1.663.755.50 2.20 1.66
18.09.21E1 Derby – Stoke 2–1 (2–0) 3.103.102.45 2.37 1.57

England Championship table 2026/2027, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 10 7 2 1 16 7 +9 23
2 Middlesbrough 11 6 4 1 22 16 +6 22
3 Southampton 10 6 2 2 21 10 +11 20
4 West Ham 10 5 4 1 29 12 +17 19
5 Birmingham 10 4 5 1 17 11 +6 17
6 QPR 10 4 5 1 15 9 +6 17
7 Wolves 10 5 2 3 18 15 +3 17
8 West Brom 10 5 2 3 12 10 +2 17
9 Stoke 10 5 1 4 17 16 +1 16
10 Blackburn 10 4 3 3 15 13 +2 15
11 Millwall 11 4 3 4 18 18 0 15
12 Bristol City 10 4 2 4 12 14 -2 14
13 Charlton 11 3 5 3 10 15 -5 14
14 Bolton 10 4 1 5 15 18 -3 13
15 Sheffield United 10 3 3 4 14 14 0 12
16 Lincoln 11 3 3 5 9 19 -10 12
17 Cardiff 11 2 5 4 18 17 +1 11
18 Portsmouth 9 3 2 4 12 13 -1 11
19 Wrexham 10 2 5 3 11 15 -4 11
20 Watford 11 3 2 6 10 19 -9 11
21 Norwich 10 3 0 7 17 20 -3 9
22 Burnley 11 1 5 5 16 21 -5 8
23 Derby 10 1 3 6 9 19 -10 6
24 Preston 10 1 1 8 8 20 -12 4
  • Promotion to Premier League
  • Play-off semi-finals
  • Play-off quarter-finals
  • Relegation to League One
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Southampton 5 5 0 0 16 4 +12 15
2 Middlesbrough 6 4 2 0 14 9 +5 14
3 Swansea 5 3 2 0 7 2 +5 11
4 West Ham 5 3 1 1 15 5 +10 10
5 Watford 6 3 1 2 8 9 -1 10
6 Cardiff 5 2 3 0 12 6 +6 9
7 Stoke 5 3 0 2 10 6 +4 9
8 Blackburn 5 3 0 2 9 7 +2 9
9 Charlton 5 2 3 0 4 2 +2 9
10 Millwall 6 2 2 2 11 8 +3 8
11 QPR 5 2 2 1 8 5 +3 8
12 West Brom 5 2 2 1 6 4 +2 8
13 Birmingham 5 1 4 0 11 7 +4 7
14 Wolves 4 2 1 1 8 6 +2 7
15 Sheffield United 5 2 1 2 7 6 +1 7
16 Portsmouth 5 2 1 2 8 9 -1 7
17 Norwich 5 2 0 3 10 9 +1 6
18 Bolton 5 2 0 3 6 7 -1 6
19 Bristol City 5 2 0 3 3 5 -2 6
20 Wrexham 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
21 Burnley 6 0 4 2 8 10 -2 4
22 Preston 5 1 0 4 4 9 -5 3
23 Derby 5 0 2 3 4 9 -5 2
24 Lincoln 5 0 2 3 3 12 -9 2
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 5 4 0 1 9 5 +4 12
2 Birmingham 5 3 1 1 6 4 +2 10
3 Wolves 6 3 1 2 10 9 +1 10
4 Lincoln 6 3 1 2 6 7 -1 10
5 West Ham 5 2 3 0 14 7 +7 9
6 QPR 5 2 3 0 7 4 +3 9
7 West Brom 5 3 0 2 6 6 0 9
8 Middlesbrough 5 2 2 1 8 7 +1 8
9 Bristol City 5 2 2 1 9 9 0 8
10 Bolton 5 2 1 2 9 11 -2 7
11 Millwall 5 2 1 2 7 10 -3 7
12 Stoke 5 2 1 2 7 10 -3 7
13 Blackburn 5 1 3 1 6 6 0 6
14 Wrexham 5 1 3 1 5 8 -3 6
15 Sheffield United 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
16 Southampton 5 1 2 2 5 6 -1 5
17 Charlton 6 1 2 3 6 13 -7 5
18 Portsmouth 4 1 1 2 4 4 0 4
19 Burnley 5 1 1 3 8 11 -3 4
20 Derby 5 1 1 3 5 10 -5 4
21 Norwich 5 1 0 4 7 11 -4 3
22 Cardiff 6 0 2 4 6 11 -5 2
23 Preston 5 0 1 4 4 11 -7 1
24 Watford 5 0 1 4 2 10 -8 1

Derby   Stoke

Under / Over goals 2026/2027, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 2 Middlesbrough 11 3 8 2.0 1.5 6 4 1 22 16 22
2 4 West Ham 10 2 8 2.9 1.2 5 4 1 29 12 19
3 9 Stoke 10 2 8 1.7 1.6 5 1 4 17 16 16
4 10 Blackburn 10 2 8 1.5 1.3 4 3 3 15 13 15
5 11 Millwall 11 3 8 1.6 1.6 4 3 4 18 18 15
6 21 Norwich 10 2 8 1.7 2.0 3 0 7 17 20 9
7 22 Burnley 11 3 8 1.5 1.9 1 5 5 16 21 8
8 5 Birmingham 10 3 7 1.7 1.1 4 5 1 17 11 17
9 7 Wolves 10 3 7 1.8 1.5 5 2 3 18 15 17
10 14 Bolton 10 3 7 1.5 1.8 4 1 5 15 18 13
11 15 Sheffield United 10 3 7 1.4 1.4 3 3 4 14 14 12
12 17 Cardiff 11 4 7 1.6 1.5 2 5 4 18 17 11
13 24 Preston 10 3 7 0.8 2.0 1 1 8 8 20 4
14 1 Swansea 10 4 6 1.6 0.7 7 2 1 16 7 23
15 3 Southampton 10 4 6 2.1 1.0 6 2 2 21 10 20
16 16 Lincoln 11 5 6 0.8 1.7 3 3 5 9 19 12
17 23 Derby 10 4 6 0.9 1.9 1 3 6 9 19 6
18 6 QPR 10 5 5 1.5 0.9 4 5 1 15 9 17
19 12 Bristol City 10 5 5 1.2 1.4 4 2 4 12 14 14
20 13 Charlton 11 6 5 0.9 1.4 3 5 3 10 15 14
21 18 Portsmouth 9 4 5 1.3 1.4 3 2 4 12 13 11
22 19 Wrexham 10 5 5 1.1 1.5 2 5 3 11 15 11
23 20 Watford 11 6 5 0.9 1.7 3 2 6 10 19 11
24 8 West Brom 10 6 4 1.2 1.0 5 2 3 12 10 17
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 2 Middlesbrough 6 1 5 2.3 1.5 4 2 0 14 9 14
2 10 Blackburn 5 0 5 1.8 1.4 3 0 2 9 7 9
3 11 Millwall 6 1 5 1.8 1.3 2 2 2 11 8 8
4 3 Southampton 5 1 4 3.2 0.8 5 0 0 16 4 15
5 4 West Ham 5 1 4 3.0 1.0 3 1 1 15 5 10
6 5 Birmingham 5 1 4 2.2 1.4 1 4 0 11 7 7
7 9 Stoke 5 1 4 2.0 1.2 3 0 2 10 6 9
8 20 Watford 6 2 4 1.3 1.5 3 1 2 8 9 10
9 21 Norwich 5 1 4 2.0 1.8 2 0 3 10 9 6
10 22 Burnley 6 2 4 1.3 1.7 0 4 2 8 10 4
11 6 QPR 5 2 3 1.6 1.0 2 2 1 8 5 8
12 7 Wolves 4 1 3 2.0 1.5 2 1 1 8 6 7
13 14 Bolton 5 2 3 1.2 1.4 2 0 3 6 7 6
14 15 Sheffield United 5 2 3 1.4 1.2 2 1 2 7 6 7
15 16 Lincoln 5 2 3 0.6 2.4 0 2 3 3 12 2
16 17 Cardiff 5 2 3 2.4 1.2 2 3 0 12 6 9
17 18 Portsmouth 5 2 3 1.6 1.8 2 1 2 8 9 7
18 19 Wrexham 5 2 3 1.2 1.4 1 2 2 6 7 5
19 23 Derby 5 2 3 0.8 1.8 0 2 3 4 9 2
20 24 Preston 5 2 3 0.8 1.8 1 0 4 4 9 3
21 1 Swansea 5 3 2 1.4 0.4 3 2 0 7 2 11
22 8 West Brom 5 4 1 1.2 0.8 2 2 1 6 4 8
23 12 Bristol City 5 4 1 0.6 1.0 2 0 3 3 5 6
24 13 Charlton 5 4 1 0.8 0.4 2 3 0 4 2 9
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Swansea 5 1 4 1.8 1.0 4 0 1 9 5 12
2 4 West Ham 5 1 4 2.8 1.4 2 3 0 14 7 9
3 7 Wolves 6 2 4 1.7 1.5 3 1 2 10 9 10
4 9 Stoke 5 1 4 1.4 2.0 2 1 2 7 10 7
5 12 Bristol City 5 1 4 1.8 1.8 2 2 1 9 9 8
6 13 Charlton 6 2 4 1.0 2.2 1 2 3 6 13 5
7 14 Bolton 5 1 4 1.8 2.2 2 1 2 9 11 7
8 15 Sheffield United 5 1 4 1.4 1.6 1 2 2 7 8 5
9 17 Cardiff 6 2 4 1.0 1.8 0 2 4 6 11 2
10 21 Norwich 5 1 4 1.4 2.2 1 0 4 7 11 3
11 22 Burnley 5 1 4 1.6 2.2 1 1 3 8 11 4
12 24 Preston 5 1 4 0.8 2.2 0 1 4 4 11 1
13 2 Middlesbrough 5 2 3 1.6 1.4 2 2 1 8 7 8
14 5 Birmingham 5 2 3 1.2 0.8 3 1 1 6 4 10
15 8 West Brom 5 2 3 1.2 1.2 3 0 2 6 6 9
16 10 Blackburn 5 2 3 1.2 1.2 1 3 1 6 6 6
17 11 Millwall 5 2 3 1.4 2.0 2 1 2 7 10 7
18 16 Lincoln 6 3 3 1.0 1.2 3 1 2 6 7 10
19 23 Derby 5 2 3 1.0 2.0 1 1 3 5 10 4
20 3 Southampton 5 3 2 1.0 1.2 1 2 2 5 6 5
21 6 QPR 5 3 2 1.4 0.8 2 3 0 7 4 9
22 18 Portsmouth 4 2 2 1.0 1.0 1 1 2 4 4 4
23 19 Wrexham 5 3 2 1.0 1.6 1 3 1 5 8 6
24 20 Watford 5 4 1 0.4 2.0 0 1 4 2 10 1

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51