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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: M Corlett

QPR 4–1 Derby

Full time · half time 3–0 · season 2026/2027

Home ✓ 1.66 fair 2.07
Draw 3.80 fair 3.98
Away 4.50 fair 3.76
Under 2.5 2.00 fair 2.00
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.80 fair 2.00

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

QPR Derby
9 Shots 15
7 Shots on target 6
1.52 Expected goals (xG) 0.86
1 Corners 3
10 Fouls 10
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (115 league matches this season so far).
Result QPR to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.89
Expected goals 1.57 – 1.10
Home / Draw / Away
QPRDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.9% 1–0 10.8% 2–1 9.4%

Statistics 2026/2027, before this match

QPR before this match, all matches
1.56points / match
1.22scored / match
0.89conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 11:8
Derby before this match, all matches
0.67points / match
0.89scored / match
1.67conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 8:15
QPR all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.22 Goals scored 0.89
0.89 Goals conceded 1.67
2.11 Total goals 2.56
1.59 xG created 0.97
1.22 xG allowed 1.78
15.78 Shots 12.00
5.00 Shots on target 3.67
11.33 Shots faced 15.00
6.11 Corners 5.78
3.89 Corners against 5.89
8.78 Fouls 13.00
1.89 Yellow cards 2.33
0.67 1st-half goals scored 0.56
0.56 1st-half goals conceded 0.89

How often Full Time

33% Wins 11%
56% Draws 33%
11% Losses 56%
78% Over 0.5 goals 100%
67% Over 1.5 goals 89%
44% Over 2.5 goals 56%
22% Over 3.5 goals 11%
0% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
67% Both teams scored 56%
22% Clean sheets 11%
33% Failed to score 33%

How often Half Time

33% Wins 33%
44% Draws 11%
22% Losses 56%
67% Over 0.5 goals 100%
33% Over 1.5 goals 33%
11% Over 2.5 goals 11%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

QPR all matches
Derby all matches
QPR before this match, at home
1.25points / match
1.00scored / match
1.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 4:4
Derby before this match, away
1.00points / match
1.00scored / match
1.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 4 played · 4:6
QPR at home away Derby

Per match

1.00 Goals scored 1.00
1.00 Goals conceded 1.50
2.00 Total goals 2.50
1.98 xG created 0.85
1.15 xG allowed 1.52
21.00 Shots 11.00
6.25 Shots on target 3.75
10.00 Shots faced 15.00
8.25 Corners 4.50
3.00 Corners against 6.25
6.75 Fouls 14.75
1.00 Yellow cards 2.25
0.25 1st-half goals scored 0.50
0.75 1st-half goals conceded 0.50

How often Full Time

25% Wins 25%
50% Draws 25%
25% Losses 50%
75% Over 0.5 goals 100%
50% Over 1.5 goals 100%
50% Over 2.5 goals 50%
25% Over 3.5 goals 0%
0% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
50% Both teams scored 50%
25% Clean sheets 25%
50% Failed to score 25%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 50%
25% Draws 0%
50% Losses 50%
75% Over 0.5 goals 100%
25% Over 1.5 goals 0%
0% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

QPR at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

QPR all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.10.26 West Ham – QPR 1–1 (0–1) 1.414.337.00 1.53 2.50
19.09.26 QPR – Preston 2–2 (0–2) 1.683.754.75 1.80 2.00
12.09.26 West Brom – QPR 1–1 (1–1) 2.013.303.60 1.85 2.00
09.09.26 Charlton – QPR 0–0 (0–0) 3.203.252.20 1.98 1.88
05.09.26 QPR – Middlesbrough 0–1 (0–1) 3.203.402.15 1.73 2.10
02.09.26 QPR – Cardiff 2–1 (1–0) 1.863.603.75 1.73 2.10
29.08.26 Blackburn – QPR 1–2 (0–0) 2.503.302.65 2.00 1.80
22.08.26 QPR – Bolton 0–0 (0–0) 1.863.603.75 1.93 1.93
15.08.26 Portsmouth – QPR 1–3 (1–3) 2.253.403.00 2.00 1.85
02.05.26 Ipswich – QPR 3–0 (2–0) 1.255.5010.00 1.53 2.50

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.10.26 Derby – Wrexham 1–1 (1–0) 2.703.202.57 2.00 1.80
19.09.26 Burnley – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 1.763.604.33 1.88 1.98
12.09.26 Derby – Birmingham 1–2 (1–1) 3.403.302.10 2.10 1.73
09.09.26 Derby – West Brom 0–1 (0–1) 3.003.252.30 1.98 1.88
05.09.26 West Ham – Derby 3–0 (1–0) 1.335.007.50 1.67 2.20
01.09.26 Portsmouth – Derby 0–2 (0–1) 1.863.404.00 2.00 1.85
29.08.26 Derby – Swansea 0–3 (0–2) 2.203.253.20 2.10 1.73
22.08.26 Derby – Cardiff 2–2 (1–2) 1.913.503.75 2.03 1.83
15.08.26 Charlton – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 2.653.202.65 2.20 1.67
02.05.26 Derby – Sheffield United 1–2 (1–0) 1.793.803.90 1.62 2.30

QPR at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
19.09.26 QPR – Preston 2–2 (0–2) 1.683.754.75 1.80 2.00
05.09.26 QPR – Middlesbrough 0–1 (0–1) 3.203.402.15 1.73 2.10
02.09.26 QPR – Cardiff 2–1 (1–0) 1.863.603.75 1.73 2.10
22.08.26 QPR – Bolton 0–0 (0–0) 1.863.603.75 1.93 1.93
25.04.26 QPR – Derby 2–3 (1–1) 2.853.502.20 1.80 2.00
21.04.26 QPR – Swansea 1–2 (0–1) 2.203.253.25 2.00 1.80
11.04.26 QPR – Bristol City 0–0 (0–0) 2.203.303.10 1.98 1.88
03.04.26 QPR – Watford 2–1 (1–0) 2.503.402.65 1.88 1.98
21.03.26 QPR – Portsmouth 6–1 (3–1) 2.753.102.50 2.30 1.62
08.03.26 QPR – Middlesbrough 0–4 (0–1) 3.753.401.96 1.91 1.91

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
19.09.26 Burnley – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 1.763.604.33 1.88 1.98
05.09.26 West Ham – Derby 3–0 (1–0) 1.335.007.50 1.67 2.20
01.09.26 Portsmouth – Derby 0–2 (0–1) 1.863.404.00 2.00 1.85
15.08.26 Charlton – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 2.653.202.65 2.20 1.67
25.04.26 QPR – Derby 2–3 (1–1) 2.853.502.20 1.80 2.00
21.04.26 Norwich – Derby 2–1 (1–0) 1.963.503.60 1.83 2.03
11.04.26 Southampton – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 1.713.804.20 1.80 2.00
03.04.26 Coventry – Derby 3–2 (1–1) 1.534.006.00 1.73 2.10
16.03.26 Portsmouth – Derby 0–1 (0–1) 2.153.203.40 2.20 1.67
10.03.26 Millwall – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.053.403.50 2.05 1.80

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

QPR winsDrawsDerby wins
6matches
2.67goals / match
50%over 2.5
33%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.04.26E1 QPR – Derby 2–3 (1–1) 2.853.502.20 1.80 2.00
25.10.25E1 Derby – QPR 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.252.65 2.10 1.73
14.02.25E1 QPR – Derby 4–0 (2–0) 2.053.204.00 2.63 1.50
05.10.24E1 Derby – QPR 2–0 (0–0) 2.203.503.10 2.10 1.73
18.04.22E1 QPR – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 2.203.253.40 2.10 1.72
29.11.21E1 Derby – QPR 1–2 (1–0) 3.003.402.40 2.00 1.80

England Championship table 2026/2027, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 10 7 2 1 16 7 +9 23
2 Middlesbrough 10 6 3 1 20 14 +6 21
3 Southampton 9 5 2 2 20 10 +10 17
4 Birmingham 10 4 5 1 17 11 +6 17
5 West Brom 10 5 2 3 12 10 +2 17
6 West Ham 9 4 4 1 23 12 +11 16
7 Stoke 10 5 1 4 17 16 +1 16
8 Blackburn 10 4 3 3 15 13 +2 15
9 QPR 9 3 5 1 11 8 +3 14
10 Wolves 9 4 2 3 16 14 +2 14
11 Millwall 10 4 2 4 16 16 0 14
12 Bristol City 10 4 2 4 12 14 -2 14
13 Charlton 10 3 5 2 10 13 -3 14
14 Bolton 10 4 1 5 15 18 -3 13
15 Sheffield United 9 3 3 3 12 11 +1 12
16 Wrexham 10 2 5 3 11 15 -4 11
17 Lincoln 9 3 2 4 7 11 -4 11
18 Cardiff 10 2 4 4 16 15 +1 10
19 Norwich 9 3 0 6 17 19 -2 9
20 Portsmouth 8 2 2 4 9 11 -2 8
21 Burnley 10 1 5 4 15 19 -4 8
22 Watford 10 2 2 6 8 19 -11 8
23 Derby 9 1 3 5 8 15 -7 6
24 Preston 10 1 1 8 8 20 -12 4
  • Promotion to Premier League
  • Play-off semi-finals
  • Play-off quarter-finals
  • Relegation to League One
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Southampton 5 5 0 0 16 4 +12 15
2 Middlesbrough 5 4 1 0 12 7 +5 13
3 Swansea 5 3 2 0 7 2 +5 11
4 West Ham 5 3 1 1 15 5 +10 10
5 Cardiff 5 2 3 0 12 6 +6 9
6 Stoke 5 3 0 2 10 6 +4 9
7 Blackburn 5 3 0 2 9 7 +2 9
8 Charlton 5 2 3 0 4 2 +2 9
9 West Brom 5 2 2 1 6 4 +2 8
10 Birmingham 5 1 4 0 11 7 +4 7
11 Millwall 5 2 1 2 9 6 +3 7
12 Wolves 4 2 1 1 8 6 +2 7
13 Sheffield United 5 2 1 2 7 6 +1 7
14 Watford 5 2 1 2 6 9 -3 7
15 Norwich 4 2 0 2 10 8 +2 6
16 Bolton 5 2 0 3 6 7 -1 6
17 Bristol City 5 2 0 3 3 5 -2 6
18 QPR 4 1 2 1 4 4 0 5
19 Wrexham 5 1 2 2 6 7 -1 5
20 Burnley 5 0 4 1 7 8 -1 4
21 Portsmouth 4 1 1 2 5 7 -2 4
22 Preston 5 1 0 4 4 9 -5 3
23 Lincoln 4 0 2 2 3 6 -3 2
24 Derby 5 0 2 3 4 9 -5 2
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Swansea 5 4 0 1 9 5 +4 12
2 Birmingham 5 3 1 1 6 4 +2 10
3 QPR 5 2 3 0 7 4 +3 9
4 West Brom 5 3 0 2 6 6 0 9
5 Lincoln 5 3 0 2 4 5 -1 9
6 Middlesbrough 5 2 2 1 8 7 +1 8
7 Bristol City 5 2 2 1 9 9 0 8
8 Wolves 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
9 Bolton 5 2 1 2 9 11 -2 7
10 Millwall 5 2 1 2 7 10 -3 7
11 Stoke 5 2 1 2 7 10 -3 7
12 West Ham 4 1 3 0 8 7 +1 6
13 Blackburn 5 1 3 1 6 6 0 6
14 Wrexham 5 1 3 1 5 8 -3 6
15 Sheffield United 4 1 2 1 5 5 0 5
16 Charlton 5 1 2 2 6 11 -5 5
17 Portsmouth 4 1 1 2 4 4 0 4
18 Derby 4 1 1 2 4 6 -2 4
19 Burnley 5 1 1 3 8 11 -3 4
20 Norwich 5 1 0 4 7 11 -4 3
21 Southampton 4 0 2 2 4 6 -2 2
22 Cardiff 5 0 1 4 4 9 -5 1
23 Preston 5 0 1 4 4 11 -7 1
24 Watford 5 0 1 4 2 10 -8 1

QPR   Derby

Under / Over goals 2026/2027, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 7 Stoke 10 2 8 1.7 1.6 5 1 4 17 16 16
2 8 Blackburn 10 2 8 1.5 1.3 4 3 3 15 13 15
3 19 Norwich 9 1 8 1.9 2.1 3 0 6 17 19 9
4 2 Middlesbrough 10 3 7 2.0 1.4 6 3 1 20 14 21
5 4 Birmingham 10 3 7 1.7 1.1 4 5 1 17 11 17
6 6 West Ham 9 2 7 2.6 1.3 4 4 1 23 12 16
7 11 Millwall 10 3 7 1.6 1.6 4 2 4 16 16 14
8 14 Bolton 10 3 7 1.5 1.8 4 1 5 15 18 13
9 21 Burnley 10 3 7 1.5 1.9 1 5 4 15 19 8
10 24 Preston 10 3 7 0.8 2.0 1 1 8 8 20 4
11 1 Swansea 10 4 6 1.6 0.7 7 2 1 16 7 23
12 3 Southampton 9 3 6 2.2 1.1 5 2 2 20 10 17
13 10 Wolves 9 3 6 1.8 1.6 4 2 3 16 14 14
14 15 Sheffield United 9 3 6 1.3 1.2 3 3 3 12 11 12
15 18 Cardiff 10 4 6 1.6 1.5 2 4 4 16 15 10
16 12 Bristol City 10 5 5 1.2 1.4 4 2 4 12 14 14
17 13 Charlton 10 5 5 1.0 1.3 3 5 2 10 13 14
18 16 Wrexham 10 5 5 1.1 1.5 2 5 3 11 15 11
19 22 Watford 10 5 5 0.8 1.9 2 2 6 8 19 8
20 23 Derby 9 4 5 0.9 1.7 1 3 5 8 15 6
21 5 West Brom 10 6 4 1.2 1.0 5 2 3 12 10 17
22 9 QPR 9 5 4 1.2 0.9 3 5 1 11 8 14
23 17 Lincoln 9 5 4 0.8 1.2 3 2 4 7 11 11
24 20 Portsmouth 8 4 4 1.1 1.4 2 2 4 9 11 8
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 8 Blackburn 5 0 5 1.8 1.4 3 0 2 9 7 9
2 2 Middlesbrough 5 1 4 2.4 1.4 4 1 0 12 7 13
3 3 Southampton 5 1 4 3.2 0.8 5 0 0 16 4 15
4 4 Birmingham 5 1 4 2.2 1.4 1 4 0 11 7 7
5 6 West Ham 5 1 4 3.0 1.0 3 1 1 15 5 10
6 7 Stoke 5 1 4 2.0 1.2 3 0 2 10 6 9
7 11 Millwall 5 1 4 1.8 1.2 2 1 2 9 6 7
8 19 Norwich 4 0 4 2.5 2.0 2 0 2 10 8 6
9 22 Watford 5 1 4 1.2 1.8 2 1 2 6 9 7
10 10 Wolves 4 1 3 2.0 1.5 2 1 1 8 6 7
11 14 Bolton 5 2 3 1.2 1.4 2 0 3 6 7 6
12 15 Sheffield United 5 2 3 1.4 1.2 2 1 2 7 6 7
13 16 Wrexham 5 2 3 1.2 1.4 1 2 2 6 7 5
14 18 Cardiff 5 2 3 2.4 1.2 2 3 0 12 6 9
15 21 Burnley 5 2 3 1.4 1.6 0 4 1 7 8 4
16 23 Derby 5 2 3 0.8 1.8 0 2 3 4 9 2
17 24 Preston 5 2 3 0.8 1.8 1 0 4 4 9 3
18 1 Swansea 5 3 2 1.4 0.4 3 2 0 7 2 11
19 9 QPR 4 2 2 1.0 1.0 1 2 1 4 4 5
20 17 Lincoln 4 2 2 0.8 1.5 0 2 2 3 6 2
21 20 Portsmouth 4 2 2 1.2 1.8 1 1 2 5 7 4
22 5 West Brom 5 4 1 1.2 0.8 2 2 1 6 4 8
23 12 Bristol City 5 4 1 0.6 1.0 2 0 3 3 5 6
24 13 Charlton 5 4 1 0.8 0.4 2 3 0 4 2 9
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Swansea 5 1 4 1.8 1.0 4 0 1 9 5 12
2 7 Stoke 5 1 4 1.4 2.0 2 1 2 7 10 7
3 12 Bristol City 5 1 4 1.8 1.8 2 2 1 9 9 8
4 13 Charlton 5 1 4 1.2 2.2 1 2 2 6 11 5
5 14 Bolton 5 1 4 1.8 2.2 2 1 2 9 11 7
6 19 Norwich 5 1 4 1.4 2.2 1 0 4 7 11 3
7 21 Burnley 5 1 4 1.6 2.2 1 1 3 8 11 4
8 24 Preston 5 1 4 0.8 2.2 0 1 4 4 11 1
9 2 Middlesbrough 5 2 3 1.6 1.4 2 2 1 8 7 8
10 4 Birmingham 5 2 3 1.2 0.8 3 1 1 6 4 10
11 5 West Brom 5 2 3 1.2 1.2 3 0 2 6 6 9
12 6 West Ham 4 1 3 2.0 1.8 1 3 0 8 7 6
13 8 Blackburn 5 2 3 1.2 1.2 1 3 1 6 6 6
14 10 Wolves 5 2 3 1.6 1.6 2 1 2 8 8 7
15 11 Millwall 5 2 3 1.4 2.0 2 1 2 7 10 7
16 15 Sheffield United 4 1 3 1.2 1.2 1 2 1 5 5 5
17 18 Cardiff 5 2 3 0.8 1.8 0 1 4 4 9 1
18 3 Southampton 4 2 2 1.0 1.5 0 2 2 4 6 2
19 9 QPR 5 3 2 1.4 0.8 2 3 0 7 4 9
20 16 Wrexham 5 3 2 1.0 1.6 1 3 1 5 8 6
21 17 Lincoln 5 3 2 0.8 1.0 3 0 2 4 5 9
22 20 Portsmouth 4 2 2 1.0 1.0 1 1 2 4 4 4
23 23 Derby 4 2 2 1.0 1.5 1 1 2 4 6 4
24 22 Watford 5 4 1 0.4 2.0 0 1 4 2 10 1

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51