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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: E Bell

Derby 2–0 Stoke

Full time · half time 0–0 · season 2025/2026

Home ✓ 1.86 fair 2.40
Draw 3.50 fair 3.72
Away 3.90 fair 3.18
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.83 fair 1.83
Over 2.5 2.03 fair 2.21

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Stoke
20 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 0
5 Corners 3
18 Fouls 10
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (480 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.99
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.13
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawStoke
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.8% 1–0 11.3% 0–1 9.5%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
1.50points / match
1.45scored / match
1.28conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 40 played · 58:51
Stoke before this match, all matches
1.35points / match
1.20scored / match
1.08conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 40 played · 48:43
Derby all matches all matches Stoke

Per match

1.45 Goals scored 1.20
1.28 Goals conceded 1.08
2.73 Total goals 2.28
10.53 Shots 11.35
3.48 Shots on target 4.05
12.53 Shots faced 12.98
4.50 Corners 5.70
5.48 Corners against 5.20
12.10 Fouls 10.48
2.28 Yellow cards 2.00
0.70 1st-half goals scored 0.58
0.58 1st-half goals conceded 0.38

How often Full Time

43% Wins 38%
23% Draws 23%
35% Losses 40%
100% Over 0.5 goals 90%
75% Over 1.5 goals 65%
50% Over 2.5 goals 45%
25% Over 3.5 goals 18%
13% Over 4.5 goals 5%
5% Over 5.5 goals 5%
65% Both teams scored 43%
25% Clean sheets 33%
10% Failed to score 35%

How often Half Time

38% Wins 35%
35% Draws 45%
28% Losses 20%
80% Over 0.5 goals 63%
28% Over 1.5 goals 25%
15% Over 2.5 goals 8%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Stoke all matches
Derby before this match, at home
1.50points / match
1.35scored / match
1.25conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 20 played · 27:25
Stoke before this match, away
1.10points / match
0.85scored / match
1.10conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 20 played · 17:22
Derby at home away Stoke

Per match

1.35 Goals scored 0.85
1.25 Goals conceded 1.10
2.60 Total goals 1.95
11.10 Shots 9.85
3.75 Shots on target 3.10
11.10 Shots faced 14.75
5.45 Corners 5.20
4.55 Corners against 5.80
11.40 Fouls 10.20
1.95 Yellow cards 2.05
0.60 1st-half goals scored 0.30
0.70 1st-half goals conceded 0.55

How often Full Time

40% Wins 30%
30% Draws 20%
30% Losses 50%
100% Over 0.5 goals 90%
75% Over 1.5 goals 60%
40% Over 2.5 goals 35%
20% Over 3.5 goals 10%
10% Over 4.5 goals 0%
5% Over 5.5 goals 0%
70% Both teams scored 30%
25% Clean sheets 35%
5% Failed to score 45%

How often Half Time

30% Wins 15%
40% Draws 60%
30% Losses 25%
80% Over 0.5 goals 50%
30% Over 1.5 goals 30%
15% Over 2.5 goals 5%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Stoke away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
03.04.26 Coventry – Derby 3–2 (1–1) 1.534.006.00 1.73 2.10
21.03.26 Derby – Birmingham 1–0 (1–0) 2.703.252.50 1.98 1.88
16.03.26 Portsmouth – Derby 0–1 (0–1) 2.153.203.40 2.20 1.67
10.03.26 Millwall – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.053.403.50 2.05 1.80
07.03.26 Derby – Sheffield Weds 2–1 (2–1) 1.245.2512.00 1.73 2.10
28.02.26 Derby – Blackburn 3–1 (0–1) 2.103.303.30 2.20 1.67
24.02.26 Hull – Derby 4–2 (2–2) 2.553.202.70 2.10 1.73
21.02.26 Watford – Derby 2–0 (1–0) 2.103.303.40 2.20 1.67
14.02.26 Derby – Swansea 2–0 (0–0) 2.103.203.30 2.20 1.67
07.02.26 Derby – Ipswich 1–2 (0–1) 3.603.402.01 2.10 1.73

Stoke all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
03.04.26 Stoke – Sheffield Weds 2–0 (1–0) 1.304.7510.00 1.80 2.00
20.03.26 Preston – Stoke 3–1 (1–1) 2.453.252.75 2.10 1.73
14.03.26 Stoke – Watford 3–1 (1–0) 2.573.302.55 2.10 1.73
10.03.26 Stoke – Ipswich 3–3 (2–0) 4.503.751.66 2.05 1.80
07.03.26 Swansea – Stoke 2–0 (0–0) 2.013.303.70 2.10 1.73
28.02.26 Coventry – Stoke 2–1 (1–1) 1.514.205.75 1.73 2.10
25.02.26 Stoke – Oxford 2–1 (1–1) 1.793.504.50 2.20 1.67
21.02.26 Stoke – Leicester 2–2 (1–0) 2.153.303.30 2.10 1.73
11.02.26 Charlton – Stoke 1–0 (0–0) 2.573.102.70 2.30 1.62
07.02.26 West Brom – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 2.203.103.30 2.20 1.67

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
21.03.26 Derby – Birmingham 1–0 (1–0) 2.703.252.50 1.98 1.88
07.03.26 Derby – Sheffield Weds 2–1 (2–1) 1.245.2512.00 1.73 2.10
28.02.26 Derby – Blackburn 3–1 (0–1) 2.103.303.30 2.20 1.67
14.02.26 Derby – Swansea 2–0 (0–0) 2.103.203.30 2.20 1.67
07.02.26 Derby – Ipswich 1–2 (0–1) 3.603.402.01 2.10 1.73
23.01.26 Derby – West Brom 1–1 (1–0) 2.553.102.75 2.38 1.57
04.01.26 Derby – Wrexham 1–2 (1–1) 2.253.253.05 2.20 1.67
01.01.26 Derby – Middlesbrough 1–0 (0–0) 3.053.252.25 2.10 1.73
20.12.25 Derby – Portsmouth 1–1 (1–1) 1.963.204.00 2.20 1.67
10.12.25 Derby – Millwall 1–1 (0–0) 2.502.952.95 2.50 1.53

Stoke away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
20.03.26 Preston – Stoke 3–1 (1–1) 2.453.252.75 2.10 1.73
07.03.26 Swansea – Stoke 2–0 (0–0) 2.013.303.70 2.10 1.73
28.02.26 Coventry – Stoke 2–1 (1–1) 1.514.205.75 1.73 2.10
11.02.26 Charlton – Stoke 1–0 (0–0) 2.573.102.70 2.30 1.62
07.02.26 West Brom – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 2.203.103.30 2.20 1.67
24.01.26 Birmingham – Stoke 1–1 (1–0) 1.813.604.00 2.10 1.73
04.01.26 Norwich – Stoke 0–2 (0–0) 2.153.503.05 1.93 1.93
01.01.26 Hull – Stoke 0–1 (0–1) 2.323.203.05 2.10 1.73
20.12.25 Watford – Stoke 1–0 (0–0) 2.013.203.20 1.91 1.91
10.12.25 Ipswich – Stoke 1–0 (1–0) 1.573.755.50 1.88 1.98

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Derby winsDrawsStoke wins
5matches
2.60goals / match
80%over 2.5
80%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.08.25E1 Stoke – Derby 3–1 (0–0) 2.303.203.20 2.50 1.53
03.05.25E1 Derby – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 2.053.004.20 2.50 1.53
02.11.24E1 Stoke – Derby 2–1 (1–0) 2.203.403.25 2.03 1.83
30.12.21E1 Stoke – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 1.663.755.50 2.20 1.66
18.09.21E1 Derby – Stoke 2–1 (2–0) 3.103.102.45 2.37 1.57

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 40 25 8 7 84 42 +42 83
2 Millwall 41 21 9 11 56 47 +9 72
3 Middlesbrough 40 20 11 9 60 39 +21 71
4 Ipswich 38 19 12 7 67 39 +28 69
5 Hull 40 20 7 13 63 58 +5 67
6 Wrexham 40 17 13 10 62 53 +9 64
7 Southampton 39 17 12 10 63 48 +15 63
8 Derby 40 17 9 14 58 51 +7 60
9 Norwich 41 17 7 17 55 48 +7 58
10 Watford 40 14 14 12 51 48 +3 56
11 QPR 40 16 8 16 57 62 -5 56
12 Stoke 40 15 9 16 48 43 +5 54
13 Bristol City 40 15 9 16 51 51 0 54
14 Birmingham 40 14 11 15 48 50 -2 53
15 Preston 40 13 14 13 47 51 -4 53
16 Swansea 40 15 8 17 47 52 -5 53
17 Sheffield United 40 15 6 19 57 57 0 51
18 Charlton 40 12 12 16 37 48 -11 48
19 Leicester 40 11 13 16 53 62 -9 46
20 Blackburn 40 12 10 18 37 49 -12 46
21 West Brom 40 11 11 18 42 56 -14 44
22 Portsmouth 40 10 12 18 40 57 -17 42
23 Oxford 41 9 14 18 39 54 -15 41
24 Sheffield Weds 40 1 9 30 24 81 -57 12
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 20 15 3 2 43 17 +26 48
2 Ipswich 20 12 7 1 36 14 +22 43
3 Southampton 19 10 6 3 29 14 +15 36
4 Middlesbrough 20 10 6 4 28 16 +12 36
5 Watford 20 10 6 4 29 20 +9 36
6 Millwall 21 11 3 7 29 25 +4 36
7 Birmingham 20 9 8 3 33 20 +13 35
8 Swansea 20 10 5 5 28 22 +6 35
9 Wrexham 20 9 6 5 36 30 +6 33
10 Hull 20 10 3 7 32 32 0 33
11 Stoke 20 9 5 6 31 21 +10 32
12 QPR 20 10 2 8 37 32 +5 32
13 Derby 20 8 6 6 27 25 +2 30
14 Preston 20 8 6 6 26 24 +2 30
15 West Brom 20 7 8 5 25 25 0 29
16 Sheffield United 20 8 4 8 33 26 +7 28
17 Charlton 20 8 4 8 19 21 -2 28
18 Norwich 20 8 2 10 24 24 0 26
19 Leicester 20 7 5 8 28 30 -2 26
20 Bristol City 20 7 4 9 28 27 +1 25
21 Portsmouth 20 6 5 9 21 22 -1 23
22 Oxford 20 5 8 7 18 25 -7 23
23 Blackburn 20 4 7 9 18 25 -7 19
24 Sheffield Weds 20 0 5 15 10 41 -31 5
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Millwall 20 10 6 4 27 22 +5 36
2 Coventry 20 10 5 5 41 25 +16 35
3 Middlesbrough 20 10 5 5 32 23 +9 35
4 Hull 20 10 4 6 31 26 +5 34
5 Norwich 21 9 5 7 31 24 +7 32
6 Wrexham 20 8 7 5 26 23 +3 31
7 Derby 20 9 3 8 31 26 +5 30
8 Bristol City 20 8 5 7 23 24 -1 29
9 Southampton 20 7 6 7 34 34 0 27
10 Blackburn 20 8 3 9 19 24 -5 27
11 Ipswich 18 7 5 6 31 25 +6 26
12 QPR 20 6 6 8 20 30 -10 24
13 Preston 20 5 8 7 21 27 -6 23
14 Sheffield United 20 7 2 11 24 31 -7 23
15 Stoke 20 6 4 10 17 22 -5 22
16 Watford 20 4 8 8 22 28 -6 20
17 Leicester 20 4 8 8 25 32 -7 20
18 Charlton 20 4 8 8 18 27 -9 20
19 Portsmouth 20 4 7 9 19 35 -16 19
20 Oxford 21 4 6 11 21 29 -8 18
21 Swansea 20 5 3 12 19 30 -11 18
22 Birmingham 20 5 3 12 15 30 -15 18
23 West Brom 20 4 3 13 17 31 -14 15
24 Sheffield Weds 20 1 4 15 14 40 -26 7

Derby   Stoke

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Coventry 40 14 26 2.1 1.1 25 8 7 84 42 83
2 5 Hull 40 14 26 1.6 1.4 20 7 13 63 58 67
3 11 QPR 40 14 26 1.4 1.6 16 8 16 57 62 56
4 19 Leicester 40 16 24 1.3 1.6 11 13 16 53 62 46
5 17 Sheffield United 40 17 23 1.4 1.4 15 6 19 57 57 51
6 7 Southampton 39 17 22 1.6 1.2 17 12 10 63 48 63
7 24 Sheffield Weds 40 18 22 0.6 2.0 1 9 30 24 81 12
8 2 Millwall 41 20 21 1.4 1.1 21 9 11 56 47 72
9 3 Middlesbrough 40 19 21 1.5 1.0 20 11 9 60 39 71
10 6 Wrexham 40 20 20 1.6 1.3 17 13 10 62 53 64
11 8 Derby 40 20 20 1.4 1.3 17 9 14 58 51 60
12 23 Oxford 41 21 20 1.0 1.3 9 14 18 39 54 41
13 4 Ipswich 38 19 19 1.8 1.0 19 12 7 67 39 69
14 9 Norwich 41 22 19 1.3 1.2 17 7 17 55 48 58
15 10 Watford 40 21 19 1.3 1.2 14 14 12 51 48 56
16 16 Swansea 40 21 19 1.2 1.3 15 8 17 47 52 53
17 21 West Brom 40 21 19 1.1 1.4 11 11 18 42 56 44
18 12 Stoke 40 22 18 1.2 1.1 15 9 16 48 43 54
19 13 Bristol City 40 22 18 1.3 1.3 15 9 16 51 51 54
20 14 Birmingham 40 22 18 1.2 1.2 14 11 15 48 50 53
21 15 Preston 40 22 18 1.2 1.3 13 14 13 47 51 53
22 22 Portsmouth 40 22 18 1.0 1.4 10 12 18 40 57 42
23 20 Blackburn 40 24 16 0.9 1.2 12 10 18 37 49 46
24 18 Charlton 40 26 14 0.9 1.2 12 12 16 37 48 48
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 11 QPR 20 4 16 1.9 1.6 10 2 8 37 32 32
2 17 Sheffield United 20 6 14 1.6 1.3 8 4 8 33 26 28
3 1 Coventry 20 7 13 2.1 0.8 15 3 2 43 17 48
4 5 Hull 20 7 13 1.6 1.6 10 3 7 32 32 33
5 2 Millwall 21 9 12 1.4 1.2 11 3 7 29 25 36
6 6 Wrexham 20 9 11 1.8 1.5 9 6 5 36 30 33
7 12 Stoke 20 9 11 1.6 1.1 9 5 6 31 21 32
8 19 Leicester 20 9 11 1.4 1.5 7 5 8 28 30 26
9 4 Ipswich 20 10 10 1.8 0.7 12 7 1 36 14 43
10 13 Bristol City 20 10 10 1.4 1.4 7 4 9 28 27 25
11 15 Preston 20 10 10 1.3 1.2 8 6 6 26 24 30
12 24 Sheffield Weds 20 10 10 0.5 2.0 0 5 15 10 41 5
13 3 Middlesbrough 20 11 9 1.4 0.8 10 6 4 28 16 36
14 9 Norwich 20 11 9 1.2 1.2 8 2 10 24 24 26
15 10 Watford 20 11 9 1.4 1.0 10 6 4 29 20 36
16 14 Birmingham 20 11 9 1.6 1.0 9 8 3 33 20 35
17 16 Swansea 20 11 9 1.4 1.1 10 5 5 28 22 35
18 21 West Brom 20 11 9 1.2 1.2 7 8 5 25 25 29
19 22 Portsmouth 20 11 9 1.1 1.1 6 5 9 21 22 23
20 23 Oxford 20 11 9 0.9 1.2 5 8 7 18 25 23
21 7 Southampton 19 11 8 1.5 0.7 10 6 3 29 14 36
22 8 Derby 20 12 8 1.4 1.2 8 6 6 27 25 30
23 18 Charlton 20 13 7 0.9 1.1 8 4 8 19 21 28
24 20 Blackburn 20 13 7 0.9 1.2 4 7 9 18 25 19
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 7 Southampton 20 6 14 1.7 1.7 7 6 7 34 34 27
2 1 Coventry 20 7 13 2.0 1.2 10 5 5 41 25 35
3 5 Hull 20 7 13 1.6 1.3 10 4 6 31 26 34
4 19 Leicester 20 7 13 1.2 1.6 4 8 8 25 32 20
5 3 Middlesbrough 20 8 12 1.6 1.1 10 5 5 32 23 35
6 8 Derby 20 8 12 1.6 1.3 9 3 8 31 26 30
7 24 Sheffield Weds 20 8 12 0.7 2.0 1 4 15 14 40 7
8 23 Oxford 21 10 11 1.0 1.4 4 6 11 21 29 18
9 9 Norwich 21 11 10 1.5 1.1 9 5 7 31 24 32
10 10 Watford 20 10 10 1.1 1.4 4 8 8 22 28 20
11 11 QPR 20 10 10 1.0 1.5 6 6 8 20 30 24
12 16 Swansea 20 10 10 0.9 1.5 5 3 12 19 30 18
13 21 West Brom 20 10 10 0.8 1.6 4 3 13 17 31 15
14 2 Millwall 20 11 9 1.4 1.1 10 6 4 27 22 36
15 4 Ipswich 18 9 9 1.7 1.4 7 5 6 31 25 26
16 6 Wrexham 20 11 9 1.3 1.1 8 7 5 26 23 31
17 14 Birmingham 20 11 9 0.8 1.5 5 3 12 15 30 18
18 17 Sheffield United 20 11 9 1.2 1.6 7 2 11 24 31 23
19 20 Blackburn 20 11 9 0.9 1.2 8 3 9 19 24 27
20 22 Portsmouth 20 11 9 0.9 1.8 4 7 9 19 35 19
21 13 Bristol City 20 12 8 1.1 1.2 8 5 7 23 24 29
22 15 Preston 20 12 8 1.1 1.4 5 8 7 21 27 23
23 12 Stoke 20 13 7 0.8 1.1 6 4 10 17 22 22
24 18 Charlton 20 13 7 0.9 1.4 4 8 8 18 27 20

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:40