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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: S Martin

Burnley 1–1 Derby

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2026/2027

Home 1.76 fair 2.23
Draw ✓ 3.60 fair 4.14
Away 4.33 fair 3.22
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.98 fair 2.32
Over 2.5 1.88 fair 1.76

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Burnley Derby
6 Shots 17
2 Shots on target 6
0.45 Expected goals (xG) 1.75
4 Corners 6
9 Fouls 12
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✗ Goals missed ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (87 league matches this season so far).
Result Burnley to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.69
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.33
Home / Draw / Away
BurnleyDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.2% 2–1 9.2% 1–0 8.5%

Statistics 2026/2027, before this match

Burnley before this match, all matches
0.43points / match
1.14scored / match
2.29conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 8:16
Derby before this match, all matches
0.57points / match
0.86scored / match
1.86conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 6:13
Burnley all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.14 Goals scored 0.86
2.29 Goals conceded 1.86
3.43 Total goals 2.71
1.22 xG created 0.91
1.59 xG allowed 2.02
14.43 Shots 11.57
4.00 Shots on target 3.29
13.57 Shots faced 16.57
5.00 Corners 6.43
4.00 Corners against 5.86
10.86 Fouls 13.57
2.14 Yellow cards 2.29
0.43 1st-half goals scored 0.57
1.14 1st-half goals conceded 1.00

How often Full Time

0% Wins 14%
43% Draws 14%
57% Losses 71%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
100% Over 1.5 goals 86%
71% Over 2.5 goals 71%
57% Over 3.5 goals 14%
14% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
100% Both teams scored 43%
0% Clean sheets 14%
0% Failed to score 43%

How often Half Time

14% Wins 29%
29% Draws 14%
57% Losses 57%
86% Over 0.5 goals 100%
43% Over 1.5 goals 43%
14% Over 2.5 goals 14%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Burnley all matches
Derby all matches
Burnley before this match, at home
0.67points / match
1.33scored / match
1.67conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 3 played · 4:5
Derby before this match, away
1.00points / match
1.00scored / match
1.67conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 3 played · 3:5
Burnley at home away Derby

Per match

1.33 Goals scored 1.00
1.67 Goals conceded 1.67
3.00 Total goals 2.67
1.07 xG created 0.55
1.21 xG allowed 1.87
12.33 Shots 9.00
3.67 Shots on target 3.00
12.00 Shots faced 18.00
5.00 Corners 4.00
5.00 Corners against 7.00
12.00 Fouls 15.67
2.00 Yellow cards 2.33
0.00 1st-half goals scored 0.67
0.67 1st-half goals conceded 0.33

How often Full Time

0% Wins 33%
67% Draws 0%
33% Losses 67%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
100% Over 1.5 goals 100%
67% Over 2.5 goals 67%
33% Over 3.5 goals 0%
0% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
100% Both teams scored 33%
0% Clean sheets 33%
0% Failed to score 33%

How often Half Time

0% Wins 67%
33% Draws 0%
67% Losses 33%
67% Over 0.5 goals 100%
0% Over 1.5 goals 0%
0% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Burnley at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

Burnley all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
12.09.26 Swansea – Burnley 3–1 (2–0) 2.103.403.30 1.90 1.95
08.09.26 Wrexham – Burnley 1–1 (0–1) 2.013.403.60 1.93 1.93
05.09.26 Burnley – Bristol City 1–2 (0–0) 1.813.604.00 1.83 2.03
02.09.26 Burnley – Middlesbrough 1–1 (0–1) 2.823.402.32 1.80 2.00
29.08.26 Norwich – Burnley 4–1 (3–1) 2.203.603.00 1.80 2.00
23.08.26 West Brom – Burnley 3–1 (1–1) 2.703.302.45 2.10 1.73
16.08.26 Burnley – West Ham 2–2 (0–1) 2.853.502.25 1.73 2.10
24.05.26E0 Burnley – Wolves 1–1 (0–1) 2.353.502.90 1.73 2.10
18.05.26E0 Arsenal – Burnley 1–0 (1–0) 1.0911.0023.00 1.33 3.40
10.05.26E0 Burnley – Aston Villa 2–2 (1–1) 5.004.331.60 1.73 2.10

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
12.09.26 Derby – Birmingham 1–2 (1–1) 3.403.302.10 2.10 1.73
09.09.26 Derby – West Brom 0–1 (0–1) 3.003.252.30 1.98 1.88
05.09.26 West Ham – Derby 3–0 (1–0) 1.335.007.50 1.67 2.20
01.09.26 Portsmouth – Derby 0–2 (0–1) 1.863.404.00 2.00 1.85
29.08.26 Derby – Swansea 0–3 (0–2) 2.203.253.20 2.10 1.73
22.08.26 Derby – Cardiff 2–2 (1–2) 1.913.503.75 2.03 1.83
15.08.26 Charlton – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 2.653.202.65 2.20 1.67
02.05.26 Derby – Sheffield United 1–2 (1–0) 1.793.803.90 1.62 2.30
25.04.26 QPR – Derby 2–3 (1–1) 2.853.502.20 1.80 2.00
21.04.26 Norwich – Derby 2–1 (1–0) 1.963.503.60 1.83 2.03

Burnley at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
05.09.26 Burnley – Bristol City 1–2 (0–0) 1.813.604.00 1.83 2.03
02.09.26 Burnley – Middlesbrough 1–1 (0–1) 2.823.402.32 1.80 2.00
16.08.26 Burnley – West Ham 2–2 (0–1) 2.853.502.25 1.73 2.10
24.05.26E0 Burnley – Wolves 1–1 (0–1) 2.353.502.90 1.73 2.10
10.05.26E0 Burnley – Aston Villa 2–2 (1–1) 5.004.331.60 1.73 2.10
22.04.26E0 Burnley – Man City 0–1 (0–1) 19.009.001.13 1.33 3.40
11.04.26E0 Burnley – Brighton 0–2 (0–1) 4.504.001.73 1.73 2.10
14.03.26E0 Burnley – Bournemouth 0–0 (0–0) 4.103.801.83 1.73 2.10
28.02.26E0 Burnley – Brentford 3–4 (1–3) 4.503.901.73 1.85 2.00
07.02.26E0 Burnley – West Ham 0–2 (0–2) 3.303.502.15 1.90 1.95

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
05.09.26 West Ham – Derby 3–0 (1–0) 1.335.007.50 1.67 2.20
01.09.26 Portsmouth – Derby 0–2 (0–1) 1.863.404.00 2.00 1.85
15.08.26 Charlton – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 2.653.202.65 2.20 1.67
25.04.26 QPR – Derby 2–3 (1–1) 2.853.502.20 1.80 2.00
21.04.26 Norwich – Derby 2–1 (1–0) 1.963.503.60 1.83 2.03
11.04.26 Southampton – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 1.713.804.20 1.80 2.00
03.04.26 Coventry – Derby 3–2 (1–1) 1.534.006.00 1.73 2.10
16.03.26 Portsmouth – Derby 0–1 (0–1) 2.153.203.40 2.20 1.67
10.03.26 Millwall – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.053.403.50 2.05 1.80
24.02.26 Hull – Derby 4–2 (2–2) 2.553.202.70 2.10 1.73

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Burnley winsDrawsDerby wins
2matches
0.00goals / match
0%over 2.5
0%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
08.04.25E1 Derby – Burnley 0–0 (0–0) 4.203.301.82 2.75 1.44
10.12.24E1 Burnley – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 1.703.505.25 2.63 1.50

England Championship table 2026/2027, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Ham 8 4 3 1 22 11 +11 15
2 Southampton 7 4 2 1 18 8 +10 14
3 Swansea 7 4 2 1 11 5 +6 14
4 Middlesbrough 7 4 2 1 14 10 +4 14
5 West Brom 7 4 2 1 10 7 +3 14
6 Stoke 8 4 1 3 13 12 +1 13
7 Bristol City 8 4 1 3 11 12 -1 13
8 QPR 7 3 3 1 8 5 +3 12
9 Charlton 8 3 3 2 7 10 -3 12
10 Wolves 6 3 2 1 14 10 +4 11
11 Millwall 8 3 2 3 15 15 0 11
12 Lincoln 7 3 2 2 6 6 0 11
13 Birmingham 7 2 4 1 10 9 +1 10
14 Norwich 7 3 0 4 13 13 0 9
15 Sheffield United 8 2 3 3 9 11 -2 9
16 Blackburn 7 2 2 3 10 10 0 8
17 Watford 8 2 2 4 7 10 -3 8
18 Portsmouth 6 2 1 3 7 8 -1 7
19 Cardiff 8 1 4 3 10 12 -2 7
20 Wrexham 7 1 4 2 7 11 -4 7
21 Bolton 7 2 1 4 7 12 -5 7
22 Derby 7 1 1 5 6 13 -7 4
23 Preston 7 1 0 6 6 13 -7 3
24 Burnley 7 0 3 4 8 16 -8 3
  • Promotion to Premier League
  • Play-off semi-finals
  • Play-off quarter-finals
  • Relegation to League One
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Southampton 4 4 0 0 15 4 +11 12
2 Middlesbrough 4 3 1 0 11 7 +4 10
3 West Ham 4 3 0 1 14 4 +10 9
4 Stoke 4 3 0 1 8 3 +5 9
5 Swansea 4 2 2 0 5 1 +4 8
6 West Brom 4 2 2 0 6 3 +3 8
7 Charlton 4 2 2 0 3 1 +2 8
8 Millwall 4 2 1 1 9 5 +4 7
9 Watford 4 2 1 1 6 5 +1 7
10 Norwich 3 2 0 1 7 4 +3 6
11 Cardiff 4 1 3 0 7 5 +2 6
12 Blackburn 4 2 0 2 7 6 +1 6
13 Bolton 4 2 0 2 5 5 0 6
14 Bristol City 4 2 0 2 3 4 -1 6
15 Wolves 2 1 1 0 6 3 +3 4
16 QPR 3 1 1 1 2 2 0 4
17 Sheffield United 4 1 1 2 4 6 -2 4
18 Birmingham 3 0 3 0 5 5 0 3
19 Portsmouth 3 1 0 2 3 5 -2 3
20 Preston 4 1 0 3 4 8 -4 3
21 Burnley 3 0 2 1 4 5 -1 2
22 Wrexham 3 0 2 1 3 4 -1 2
23 Lincoln 3 0 2 1 2 4 -2 2
24 Derby 4 0 1 3 3 8 -5 1
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lincoln 4 3 0 1 4 2 +2 9
2 QPR 4 2 2 0 6 3 +3 8
3 Wolves 4 2 1 1 8 7 +1 7
4 Birmingham 4 2 1 1 5 4 +1 7
5 Bristol City 4 2 1 1 8 8 0 7
6 Swansea 3 2 0 1 6 4 +2 6
7 West Ham 4 1 3 0 8 7 +1 6
8 West Brom 3 2 0 1 4 4 0 6
9 Sheffield United 4 1 2 1 5 5 0 5
10 Wrexham 4 1 2 1 4 7 -3 5
11 Portsmouth 3 1 1 1 4 3 +1 4
12 Middlesbrough 3 1 1 1 3 3 0 4
13 Millwall 4 1 1 2 6 10 -4 4
14 Stoke 4 1 1 2 5 9 -4 4
15 Charlton 4 1 1 2 4 9 -5 4
16 Derby 3 1 0 2 3 5 -2 3
17 Norwich 4 1 0 3 6 9 -3 3
18 Blackburn 3 0 2 1 3 4 -1 2
19 Southampton 3 0 2 1 3 4 -1 2
20 Cardiff 4 0 1 3 3 7 -4 1
21 Watford 4 0 1 3 1 5 -4 1
22 Bolton 3 0 1 2 2 7 -5 1
23 Burnley 4 0 1 3 4 11 -7 1
24 Preston 3 0 0 3 2 5 -3 0

Burnley   Derby

Under / Over goals 2026/2027, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 West Ham 8 1 7 2.8 1.4 4 3 1 22 11 15
2 11 Millwall 8 1 7 1.9 1.9 3 2 3 15 15 11
3 6 Stoke 8 2 6 1.6 1.5 4 1 3 13 12 13
4 14 Norwich 7 1 6 1.9 1.9 3 0 4 13 13 9
5 16 Blackburn 7 1 6 1.4 1.4 2 2 3 10 10 8
6 2 Southampton 7 2 5 2.6 1.1 4 2 1 18 8 14
7 4 Middlesbrough 7 2 5 2.0 1.4 4 2 1 14 10 14
8 7 Bristol City 8 3 5 1.4 1.5 4 1 3 11 12 13
9 10 Wolves 6 1 5 2.3 1.7 3 2 1 14 10 11
10 13 Birmingham 7 2 5 1.4 1.3 2 4 1 10 9 10
11 15 Sheffield United 8 3 5 1.1 1.4 2 3 3 9 11 9
12 22 Derby 7 2 5 0.9 1.9 1 1 5 6 13 4
13 23 Preston 7 2 5 0.9 1.9 1 0 6 6 13 3
14 24 Burnley 7 2 5 1.1 2.3 0 3 4 8 16 3
15 3 Swansea 7 3 4 1.6 0.7 4 2 1 11 5 14
16 9 Charlton 8 4 4 0.9 1.2 3 3 2 7 10 12
17 19 Cardiff 8 4 4 1.2 1.5 1 4 3 10 12 7
18 21 Bolton 7 3 4 1.0 1.7 2 1 4 7 12 7
19 5 West Brom 7 4 3 1.4 1.0 4 2 1 10 7 14
20 8 QPR 7 4 3 1.1 0.7 3 3 1 8 5 12
21 17 Watford 8 5 3 0.9 1.2 2 2 4 7 10 8
22 18 Portsmouth 6 3 3 1.2 1.3 2 1 3 7 8 7
23 20 Wrexham 7 4 3 1.0 1.6 1 4 2 7 11 7
24 12 Lincoln 7 5 2 0.9 0.9 3 2 2 6 6 11
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 West Ham 4 0 4 3.5 1.0 3 0 1 14 4 9
2 2 Southampton 4 0 4 3.8 1.0 4 0 0 15 4 12
3 4 Middlesbrough 4 0 4 2.8 1.8 3 1 0 11 7 10
4 11 Millwall 4 0 4 2.2 1.2 2 1 1 9 5 7
5 16 Blackburn 4 0 4 1.8 1.5 2 0 2 7 6 6
6 6 Stoke 4 1 3 2.0 0.8 3 0 1 8 3 9
7 14 Norwich 3 0 3 2.3 1.3 2 0 1 7 4 6
8 17 Watford 4 1 3 1.5 1.2 2 1 1 6 5 7
9 22 Derby 4 1 3 0.8 2.0 0 1 3 3 8 1
10 23 Preston 4 1 3 1.0 2.0 1 0 3 4 8 3
11 10 Wolves 2 0 2 3.0 1.5 1 1 0 6 3 4
12 13 Birmingham 3 1 2 1.7 1.7 0 3 0 5 5 3
13 15 Sheffield United 4 2 2 1.0 1.5 1 1 2 4 6 4
14 19 Cardiff 4 2 2 1.8 1.2 1 3 0 7 5 6
15 21 Bolton 4 2 2 1.2 1.2 2 0 2 5 5 6
16 24 Burnley 3 1 2 1.3 1.7 0 2 1 4 5 2
17 3 Swansea 4 3 1 1.2 0.2 2 2 0 5 1 8
18 5 West Brom 4 3 1 1.5 0.8 2 2 0 6 3 8
19 7 Bristol City 4 3 1 0.8 1.0 2 0 2 3 4 6
20 8 QPR 3 2 1 0.7 0.7 1 1 1 2 2 4
21 9 Charlton 4 3 1 0.8 0.2 2 2 0 3 1 8
22 12 Lincoln 3 2 1 0.7 1.3 0 2 1 2 4 2
23 18 Portsmouth 3 2 1 1.0 1.7 1 0 2 3 5 3
24 20 Wrexham 3 2 1 1.0 1.3 0 2 1 3 4 2
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 7 Bristol City 4 0 4 2.0 2.0 2 1 1 8 8 7
2 1 West Ham 4 1 3 2.0 1.8 1 3 0 8 7 6
3 3 Swansea 3 0 3 2.0 1.3 2 0 1 6 4 6
4 6 Stoke 4 1 3 1.2 2.2 1 1 2 5 9 4
5 9 Charlton 4 1 3 1.0 2.2 1 1 2 4 9 4
6 10 Wolves 4 1 3 2.0 1.8 2 1 1 8 7 7
7 11 Millwall 4 1 3 1.5 2.5 1 1 2 6 10 4
8 13 Birmingham 4 1 3 1.2 1.0 2 1 1 5 4 7
9 14 Norwich 4 1 3 1.5 2.2 1 0 3 6 9 3
10 15 Sheffield United 4 1 3 1.2 1.2 1 2 1 5 5 5
11 24 Burnley 4 1 3 1.0 2.8 0 1 3 4 11 1
12 5 West Brom 3 1 2 1.3 1.3 2 0 1 4 4 6
13 8 QPR 4 2 2 1.5 0.8 2 2 0 6 3 8
14 16 Blackburn 3 1 2 1.0 1.3 0 2 1 3 4 2
15 18 Portsmouth 3 1 2 1.3 1.0 1 1 1 4 3 4
16 19 Cardiff 4 2 2 0.8 1.8 0 1 3 3 7 1
17 20 Wrexham 4 2 2 1.0 1.8 1 2 1 4 7 5
18 21 Bolton 3 1 2 0.7 2.3 0 1 2 2 7 1
19 22 Derby 3 1 2 1.0 1.7 1 0 2 3 5 3
20 23 Preston 3 1 2 0.7 1.7 0 0 3 2 5 0
21 2 Southampton 3 2 1 1.0 1.3 0 2 1 3 4 2
22 4 Middlesbrough 3 2 1 1.0 1.0 1 1 1 3 3 4
23 12 Lincoln 4 3 1 1.0 0.5 3 0 1 4 2 9
24 17 Watford 4 4 0 0.2 1.2 0 1 3 1 5 1

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51