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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: J Smith

Stoke 2–1 Derby

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2024/2025

Home ✓ 2.20 fair 2.08
Draw 3.40 fair 3.99
Away 3.25 fair 3.72
Under 2.5 1.83 fair 2.02
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.03 fair 1.98

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Stoke Derby
13 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 3
9 Corners 4
10 Fouls 14
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (145 league matches this season so far).
Result Stoke to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.87
Expected goals 1.58 – 1.12
Home / Draw / Away
StokeDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.9% 1–0 10.7% 2–1 9.4%

Statistics 2024/2025, before this match

Stoke before this match, all matches
1.00points / match
1.08scored / match
1.42conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 13:17
Derby before this match, all matches
1.25points / match
1.25scored / match
1.25conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 15:15
Stoke all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.08 Goals scored 1.25
1.42 Goals conceded 1.25
2.50 Total goals 2.50
10.92 Shots 11.00
3.67 Shots on target 3.50
16.25 Shots faced 12.58
4.83 Corners 5.67
6.25 Corners against 5.58
11.67 Fouls 12.50
2.58 Yellow cards 2.17
0.67 1st-half goals scored 0.33
0.50 1st-half goals conceded 0.42

How often Full Time

25% Wins 33%
25% Draws 25%
50% Losses 42%
92% Over 0.5 goals 100%
67% Over 1.5 goals 75%
42% Over 2.5 goals 33%
25% Over 3.5 goals 17%
8% Over 4.5 goals 17%
8% Over 5.5 goals 8%
42% Both teams scored 50%
25% Clean sheets 33%
42% Failed to score 17%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 25%
50% Draws 42%
25% Losses 33%
58% Over 0.5 goals 67%
33% Over 1.5 goals 8%
17% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Stoke all matches
Derby all matches
Stoke before this match, at home
1.33points / match
2.00scored / match
1.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 6 played · 12:9
Derby before this match, away
0.33points / match
0.83scored / match
1.83conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 6 played · 5:11
Stoke at home away Derby

Per match

2.00 Goals scored 0.83
1.50 Goals conceded 1.83
3.50 Total goals 2.67
12.67 Shots 9.67
4.17 Shots on target 2.83
13.00 Shots faced 12.83
5.00 Corners 5.33
7.00 Corners against 4.50
9.50 Fouls 12.50
2.00 Yellow cards 2.50
1.33 1st-half goals scored 0.17
0.67 1st-half goals conceded 0.67

How often Full Time

33% Wins 0%
33% Draws 33%
33% Losses 67%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
83% Over 1.5 goals 83%
67% Over 2.5 goals 33%
50% Over 3.5 goals 17%
17% Over 4.5 goals 17%
17% Over 5.5 goals 17%
83% Both teams scored 67%
17% Clean sheets 0%
0% Failed to score 33%

How often Half Time

50% Wins 0%
33% Draws 50%
17% Losses 50%
83% Over 0.5 goals 67%
67% Over 1.5 goals 17%
33% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Stoke at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

Stoke all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.10.24 Sheffield United – Stoke 2–0 (1–0) 1.753.604.75 1.93 1.93
22.10.24 Stoke – Bristol City 2–2 (2–0) 2.383.402.90 1.98 1.88
19.10.24 Stoke – Norwich 1–1 (1–1) 2.553.402.63 1.80 2.00
05.10.24 Swansea – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 2.203.503.10 1.98 1.88
02.10.24 Stoke – Portsmouth 6–1 (3–1) 1.803.604.33 1.85 2.00
28.09.24 Middlesbrough – Stoke 2–0 (1–0) 1.604.005.00 1.73 2.10
20.09.24 Stoke – Hull 1–3 (1–0) 2.103.303.50 1.93 1.93
14.09.24 Oxford – Stoke 1–0 (0–0) 3.103.402.25 1.98 1.88
31.08.24 Plymouth – Stoke 0–1 (0–0) 3.103.602.15 1.70 2.10
24.08.24 Stoke – West Brom 1–2 (1–2) 2.553.202.80 2.30 1.62

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.10.24 Derby – Hull 1–1 (0–0) 2.303.303.10 1.90 1.95
22.10.24 Oxford – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 2.553.252.75 2.10 1.73
19.10.24 Millwall – Derby 1–1 (0–0) 1.953.204.10 2.30 1.62
05.10.24 Derby – QPR 2–0 (0–0) 2.203.503.10 2.10 1.73
01.10.24 Sunderland – Derby 2–0 (1–0) 1.673.904.75 2.03 1.83
28.09.24 Derby – Norwich 2–3 (0–1) 2.633.602.50 1.98 1.88
21.09.24 Sheffield United – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 1.574.105.50 1.80 2.00
14.09.24 Derby – Cardiff 1–0 (1–0) 2.353.403.00 2.10 1.73
31.08.24 Derby – Bristol City 3–0 (1–0) 2.903.252.40 2.05 1.80
24.08.24 Watford – Derby 2–1 (1–1) 1.853.504.10 1.88 1.98

Stoke at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
22.10.24 Stoke – Bristol City 2–2 (2–0) 2.383.402.90 1.98 1.88
19.10.24 Stoke – Norwich 1–1 (1–1) 2.553.402.63 1.80 2.00
02.10.24 Stoke – Portsmouth 6–1 (3–1) 1.803.604.33 1.85 2.00
20.09.24 Stoke – Hull 1–3 (1–0) 2.103.303.50 1.93 1.93
24.08.24 Stoke – West Brom 1–2 (1–2) 2.553.202.80 2.30 1.62
10.08.24 Stoke – Coventry 1–0 (0–0) 2.453.602.70 1.83 2.03
04.05.24 Stoke – Bristol City 4–0 (3–0) 2.053.403.75 1.90 1.95
20.04.24 Stoke – Plymouth 3–0 (2–0) 1.803.504.75 1.93 1.93
06.04.24 Stoke – West Brom 2–2 (0–1) 2.603.202.80 2.20 1.67
01.04.24 Stoke – Huddersfield 1–1 (0–1) 2.053.403.75 2.05 1.75

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
22.10.24 Oxford – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 2.553.252.75 2.10 1.73
19.10.24 Millwall – Derby 1–1 (0–0) 1.953.204.10 2.30 1.62
01.10.24 Sunderland – Derby 2–0 (1–0) 1.673.904.75 2.03 1.83
21.09.24 Sheffield United – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 1.574.105.50 1.80 2.00
24.08.24 Watford – Derby 2–1 (1–1) 1.853.504.10 1.88 1.98
09.08.24 Blackburn – Derby 4–2 (1–0) 2.203.503.10 2.03 1.83
20.04.24E2 Cambridge – Derby 0–1 (0–1) 5.504.001.55 1.90 1.95
10.04.24E2 Wycombe – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 4.203.751.83 1.98 1.88
02.04.24E2 Portsmouth – Derby 2–2 (1–2) 2.253.303.30 2.08 1.73
23.03.24E2 Northampton – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 5.753.601.65 2.08 1.73

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Stoke winsDrawsDerby wins
2matches
3.00goals / match
100%over 2.5
100%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
30.12.21E1 Stoke – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 1.663.755.50 2.20 1.66
18.09.21E1 Derby – Stoke 2–1 (2–0) 3.103.102.45 2.37 1.57

England Championship table 2024/2025, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sunderland 12 9 1 2 23 9 +14 28
2 Sheffield United 12 7 3 2 14 6 +8 24
3 Burnley 12 6 5 1 17 5 +12 23
4 Leeds 12 6 5 1 19 8 +11 23
5 West Brom 13 5 6 2 14 8 +6 21
6 Blackburn 12 5 4 3 16 12 +4 19
7 Watford 12 6 1 5 16 19 -3 19
8 Norwich 12 4 6 2 22 16 +6 18
9 Middlesbrough 12 5 3 4 14 12 +2 18
10 Millwall 12 4 4 4 15 12 +3 16
11 Bristol City 12 3 7 2 14 16 -2 16
12 Derby 12 4 3 5 15 15 0 15
13 Sheffield Weds 12 4 3 5 13 18 -5 15
14 Oxford 12 3 5 4 15 15 0 14
15 Hull 12 3 5 4 14 16 -2 14
16 Preston 12 3 5 4 13 17 -4 14
17 Swansea 12 3 4 5 8 8 0 13
18 Coventry 12 3 3 6 14 17 -3 12
19 Stoke 12 3 3 6 13 17 -4 12
20 Luton 13 3 3 7 15 21 -6 12
21 Cardiff 12 3 3 6 11 18 -7 12
22 Plymouth 12 3 3 6 13 22 -9 12
23 QPR 12 1 6 5 11 19 -8 9
24 Portsmouth 12 1 5 6 12 25 -13 8
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sunderland 6 5 1 0 12 2 +10 16
2 Blackburn 6 5 1 0 12 3 +9 16
3 Watford 6 5 1 0 11 4 +7 16
4 Sheffield United 6 5 1 0 9 2 +7 16
5 Leeds 6 4 1 1 12 5 +7 13
6 Derby 6 4 1 1 10 4 +6 13
7 Burnley 6 3 3 0 9 2 +7 12
8 Oxford 6 3 3 0 8 3 +5 12
9 Plymouth 6 3 2 1 12 9 +3 11
10 Preston 6 3 2 1 7 4 +3 11
11 Middlesbrough 6 3 2 1 7 5 +2 11
12 Norwich 6 2 4 0 15 8 +7 10
13 Millwall 6 3 1 2 10 6 +4 10
14 Bristol City 6 2 4 0 8 6 +2 10
15 Swansea 6 2 3 1 6 3 +3 9
16 Coventry 6 3 0 3 11 9 +2 9
17 Cardiff 6 3 0 3 8 6 +2 9
18 West Brom 6 2 3 1 2 1 +1 9
19 Stoke 6 2 2 2 12 9 +3 8
20 Sheffield Weds 6 2 2 2 8 7 +1 8
21 Luton 7 2 2 3 11 12 -1 8
22 Hull 6 1 3 2 6 6 0 6
23 QPR 6 0 3 3 6 11 -5 3
24 Portsmouth 6 0 3 3 3 9 -6 3
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Brom 7 3 3 1 12 7 +5 12
2 Sunderland 6 4 0 2 11 7 +4 12
3 Burnley 6 3 2 1 8 3 +5 11
4 Leeds 6 2 4 0 7 3 +4 10
5 Sheffield United 6 2 2 2 5 4 +1 8
6 Norwich 6 2 2 2 7 8 -1 8
7 Hull 6 2 2 2 8 10 -2 8
8 Middlesbrough 6 2 1 3 7 7 0 7
9 Sheffield Weds 6 2 1 3 5 11 -6 7
10 Millwall 6 1 3 2 5 6 -1 6
11 QPR 6 1 3 2 5 8 -3 6
12 Bristol City 6 1 3 2 6 10 -4 6
13 Portsmouth 6 1 2 3 9 16 -7 5
14 Swansea 6 1 1 4 2 5 -3 4
15 Luton 6 1 1 4 4 9 -5 4
16 Stoke 6 1 1 4 1 8 -7 4
17 Blackburn 6 0 3 3 4 9 -5 3
18 Coventry 6 0 3 3 3 8 -5 3
19 Preston 6 0 3 3 6 13 -7 3
20 Cardiff 6 0 3 3 3 12 -9 3
21 Watford 6 1 0 5 5 15 -10 3
22 Oxford 6 0 2 4 7 12 -5 2
23 Derby 6 0 2 4 5 11 -6 2
24 Plymouth 6 0 1 5 1 13 -12 1

Stoke   Derby

Under / Over goals 2024/2025, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 7 Watford 12 3 9 1.3 1.6 6 1 5 16 19 19
2 20 Luton 13 5 8 1.2 1.6 3 3 7 15 21 12
3 24 Portsmouth 12 4 8 1.0 2.1 1 5 6 12 25 8
4 13 Sheffield Weds 12 5 7 1.1 1.5 4 3 5 13 18 15
5 1 Sunderland 12 6 6 1.9 0.8 9 1 2 23 9 28
6 6 Blackburn 12 6 6 1.3 1.0 5 4 3 16 12 19
7 8 Norwich 12 6 6 1.8 1.3 4 6 2 22 16 18
8 16 Preston 12 6 6 1.1 1.4 3 5 4 13 17 14
9 18 Coventry 12 6 6 1.2 1.4 3 3 6 14 17 12
10 22 Plymouth 12 6 6 1.1 1.8 3 3 6 13 22 12
11 11 Bristol City 12 7 5 1.2 1.3 3 7 2 14 16 16
12 14 Oxford 12 7 5 1.2 1.2 3 5 4 15 15 14
13 19 Stoke 12 7 5 1.1 1.4 3 3 6 13 17 12
14 23 QPR 12 7 5 0.9 1.6 1 6 5 11 19 9
15 4 Leeds 12 8 4 1.6 0.7 6 5 1 19 8 23
16 5 West Brom 13 9 4 1.1 0.6 5 6 2 14 8 21
17 10 Millwall 12 8 4 1.2 1.0 4 4 4 15 12 16
18 12 Derby 12 8 4 1.2 1.2 4 3 5 15 15 15
19 15 Hull 12 8 4 1.2 1.3 3 5 4 14 16 14
20 3 Burnley 12 9 3 1.4 0.4 6 5 1 17 5 23
21 9 Middlesbrough 12 9 3 1.2 1.0 5 3 4 14 12 18
22 21 Cardiff 12 9 3 0.9 1.5 3 3 6 11 18 12
23 17 Swansea 12 10 2 0.7 0.7 3 4 5 8 8 13
24 2 Sheffield United 12 11 1 1.2 0.5 7 3 2 14 6 24
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 20 Luton 7 1 6 1.6 1.7 2 2 3 11 12 8
2 18 Coventry 6 1 5 1.8 1.5 3 0 3 11 9 9
3 7 Watford 6 2 4 1.8 0.7 5 1 0 11 4 16
4 8 Norwich 6 2 4 2.5 1.3 2 4 0 15 8 10
5 19 Stoke 6 2 4 2.0 1.5 2 2 2 12 9 8
6 22 Plymouth 6 2 4 2.0 1.5 3 2 1 12 9 11
7 4 Leeds 6 3 3 2.0 0.8 4 1 1 12 5 13
8 6 Blackburn 6 3 3 2.0 0.5 5 1 0 12 3 16
9 10 Millwall 6 3 3 1.7 1.0 3 1 2 10 6 10
10 23 QPR 6 3 3 1.0 1.8 0 3 3 6 11 3
11 24 Portsmouth 6 3 3 0.5 1.5 0 3 3 3 9 3
12 1 Sunderland 6 4 2 2.0 0.3 5 1 0 12 2 16
13 3 Burnley 6 4 2 1.5 0.3 3 3 0 9 2 12
14 11 Bristol City 6 4 2 1.3 1.0 2 4 0 8 6 10
15 12 Derby 6 4 2 1.7 0.7 4 1 1 10 4 13
16 13 Sheffield Weds 6 4 2 1.3 1.2 2 2 2 8 7 8
17 16 Preston 6 4 2 1.2 0.7 3 2 1 7 4 11
18 2 Sheffield United 6 5 1 1.5 0.3 5 1 0 9 2 16
19 9 Middlesbrough 6 5 1 1.2 0.8 3 2 1 7 5 11
20 14 Oxford 6 5 1 1.3 0.5 3 3 0 8 3 12
21 15 Hull 6 5 1 1.0 1.0 1 3 2 6 6 6
22 17 Swansea 6 5 1 1.0 0.5 2 3 1 6 3 9
23 21 Cardiff 6 5 1 1.3 1.0 3 0 3 8 6 9
24 5 West Brom 6 6 0 0.3 0.2 2 3 1 2 1 9
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 7 Watford 6 1 5 0.8 2.5 1 0 5 5 15 3
2 13 Sheffield Weds 6 1 5 0.8 1.8 2 1 3 5 11 7
3 24 Portsmouth 6 1 5 1.5 2.7 1 2 3 9 16 5
4 1 Sunderland 6 2 4 1.8 1.2 4 0 2 11 7 12
5 5 West Brom 7 3 4 1.7 1.0 3 3 1 12 7 12
6 14 Oxford 6 2 4 1.2 2.0 0 2 4 7 12 2
7 16 Preston 6 2 4 1.0 2.2 0 3 3 6 13 3
8 6 Blackburn 6 3 3 0.7 1.5 0 3 3 4 9 3
9 11 Bristol City 6 3 3 1.0 1.7 1 3 2 6 10 6
10 15 Hull 6 3 3 1.3 1.7 2 2 2 8 10 8
11 8 Norwich 6 4 2 1.2 1.3 2 2 2 7 8 8
12 9 Middlesbrough 6 4 2 1.2 1.2 2 1 3 7 7 7
13 12 Derby 6 4 2 0.8 1.8 0 2 4 5 11 2
14 20 Luton 6 4 2 0.7 1.5 1 1 4 4 9 4
15 21 Cardiff 6 4 2 0.5 2.0 0 3 3 3 12 3
16 22 Plymouth 6 4 2 0.2 2.2 0 1 5 1 13 1
17 23 QPR 6 4 2 0.8 1.3 1 3 2 5 8 6
18 3 Burnley 6 5 1 1.3 0.5 3 2 1 8 3 11
19 4 Leeds 6 5 1 1.2 0.5 2 4 0 7 3 10
20 10 Millwall 6 5 1 0.8 1.0 1 3 2 5 6 6
21 17 Swansea 6 5 1 0.3 0.8 1 1 4 2 5 4
22 18 Coventry 6 5 1 0.5 1.3 0 3 3 3 8 3
23 19 Stoke 6 5 1 0.2 1.3 1 1 4 1 8 4
24 2 Sheffield United 6 6 0 0.8 0.7 2 2 2 5 4 8

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51