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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: J Busby

QPR 2–3 Derby

Full time · half time 1–1 · season 2025/2026

Home 2.85 fair 2.66
Draw 3.50 fair 4.17
Away ✓ 2.20 fair 2.60
Under 2.5 2.00 fair 2.45
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.80 fair 1.69

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

QPR Derby
23 Shots 12
12 Shots on target 3
10 Corners 6
12 Fouls 8
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (532 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.63
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.54
Home / Draw / Away
QPRDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 10.9% 1–2 8.5% 2–1 8.3%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

QPR before this match, all matches
1.32points / match
1.34scored / match
1.52conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 44 played · 59:67
Derby before this match, all matches
1.50points / match
1.43scored / match
1.25conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 44 played · 63:55
QPR all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.34 Goals scored 1.43
1.52 Goals conceded 1.25
2.86 Total goals 2.68
12.50 Shots 10.82
3.89 Shots on target 3.55
12.02 Shots faced 12.45
4.77 Corners 4.50
5.23 Corners against 5.32
10.82 Fouls 12.43
1.86 Yellow cards 2.32
0.57 1st-half goals scored 0.68
0.80 1st-half goals conceded 0.55

How often Full Time

36% Wins 43%
23% Draws 20%
41% Losses 36%
86% Over 0.5 goals 100%
75% Over 1.5 goals 75%
61% Over 2.5 goals 50%
36% Over 3.5 goals 23%
16% Over 4.5 goals 11%
5% Over 5.5 goals 5%
64% Both teams scored 64%
23% Clean sheets 27%
27% Failed to score 9%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 39%
39% Draws 34%
36% Losses 27%
73% Over 0.5 goals 80%
39% Over 1.5 goals 25%
14% Over 2.5 goals 14%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

QPR all matches
Derby all matches
QPR before this match, at home
1.50points / match
1.73scored / match
1.55conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 22 played · 38:34
Derby before this match, away
1.36points / match
1.50scored / match
1.36conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 22 played · 33:30
QPR at home away Derby

Per match

1.73 Goals scored 1.50
1.55 Goals conceded 1.36
3.27 Total goals 2.86
13.95 Shots 9.95
4.68 Shots on target 3.45
10.27 Shots faced 14.00
5.18 Corners 3.50
3.73 Corners against 6.23
11.05 Fouls 13.05
2.00 Yellow cards 2.59
0.77 1st-half goals scored 0.77
0.50 1st-half goals conceded 0.45

How often Full Time

45% Wins 41%
14% Draws 14%
41% Losses 45%
91% Over 0.5 goals 100%
86% Over 1.5 goals 77%
77% Over 2.5 goals 64%
41% Over 3.5 goals 27%
23% Over 4.5 goals 14%
5% Over 5.5 goals 5%
73% Both teams scored 64%
18% Clean sheets 23%
18% Failed to score 14%

How often Half Time

41% Wins 45%
36% Draws 27%
23% Losses 27%
73% Over 0.5 goals 82%
32% Over 1.5 goals 23%
14% Over 2.5 goals 14%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

QPR at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

QPR all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
21.04.26 QPR – Swansea 1–2 (0–1) 2.203.253.25 2.00 1.80
18.04.26 Millwall – QPR 2–0 (2–0) 1.623.754.75 1.85 2.00
11.04.26 QPR – Bristol City 0–0 (0–0) 2.203.303.10 1.98 1.88
06.04.26 Preston – QPR 1–1 (0–0) 2.323.302.82 2.10 1.73
03.04.26 QPR – Watford 2–1 (1–0) 2.503.402.65 1.88 1.98
21.03.26 QPR – Portsmouth 6–1 (3–1) 2.753.102.50 2.30 1.62
14.03.26 Leicester – QPR 1–3 (1–1) 1.913.503.80 2.00 1.80
11.03.26 Birmingham – QPR 1–0 (1–0) 1.683.754.50 2.00 1.85
08.03.26 QPR – Middlesbrough 0–4 (0–1) 3.753.401.96 1.91 1.91
28.02.26 QPR – Sheffield United 0–2 (0–2) 3.003.602.20 1.88 1.98

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
21.04.26 Norwich – Derby 2–1 (1–0) 1.963.503.60 1.83 2.03
18.04.26 Derby – Oxford 1–0 (1–0) 1.863.404.10 2.10 1.73
11.04.26 Southampton – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 1.713.804.20 1.80 2.00
06.04.26 Derby – Stoke 2–0 (0–0) 1.863.503.90 2.03 1.83
03.04.26 Coventry – Derby 3–2 (1–1) 1.534.006.00 1.73 2.10
21.03.26 Derby – Birmingham 1–0 (1–0) 2.703.252.50 1.98 1.88
16.03.26 Portsmouth – Derby 0–1 (0–1) 2.153.203.40 2.20 1.67
10.03.26 Millwall – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.053.403.50 2.05 1.80
07.03.26 Derby – Sheffield Weds 2–1 (2–1) 1.245.2512.00 1.73 2.10
28.02.26 Derby – Blackburn 3–1 (0–1) 2.103.303.30 2.20 1.67

QPR at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
21.04.26 QPR – Swansea 1–2 (0–1) 2.203.253.25 2.00 1.80
11.04.26 QPR – Bristol City 0–0 (0–0) 2.203.303.10 1.98 1.88
03.04.26 QPR – Watford 2–1 (1–0) 2.503.402.65 1.88 1.98
21.03.26 QPR – Portsmouth 6–1 (3–1) 2.753.102.50 2.30 1.62
08.03.26 QPR – Middlesbrough 0–4 (0–1) 3.753.401.96 1.91 1.91
28.02.26 QPR – Sheffield United 0–2 (0–2) 3.003.602.20 1.88 1.98
14.02.26 QPR – Blackburn 1–3 (1–2) 2.153.103.25 2.20 1.67
31.01.26 QPR – Coventry 2–1 (0–0) 3.103.402.15 1.91 1.91
24.01.26 QPR – Wrexham 2–3 (1–0) 2.303.253.10 2.20 1.67
04.01.26 QPR – Sheffield Weds 3–0 (1–0) 1.394.756.50 1.80 2.00

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
21.04.26 Norwich – Derby 2–1 (1–0) 1.963.503.60 1.83 2.03
11.04.26 Southampton – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 1.713.804.20 1.80 2.00
03.04.26 Coventry – Derby 3–2 (1–1) 1.534.006.00 1.73 2.10
16.03.26 Portsmouth – Derby 0–1 (0–1) 2.153.203.40 2.20 1.67
10.03.26 Millwall – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.053.403.50 2.05 1.80
24.02.26 Hull – Derby 4–2 (2–2) 2.553.202.70 2.10 1.73
21.02.26 Watford – Derby 2–0 (1–0) 2.103.303.40 2.20 1.67
30.01.26 Bristol City – Derby 0–5 (0–3) 2.153.303.30 2.10 1.73
20.01.26 Charlton – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 2.653.002.75 2.50 1.53
17.01.26 Preston – Derby 0–1 (0–0) 2.203.103.40 2.38 1.57

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

QPR winsDrawsDerby wins
5matches
2.20goals / match
40%over 2.5
20%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.10.25E1 Derby – QPR 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.252.65 2.10 1.73
14.02.25E1 QPR – Derby 4–0 (2–0) 2.053.204.00 2.63 1.50
05.10.24E1 Derby – QPR 2–0 (0–0) 2.203.503.10 2.10 1.73
18.04.22E1 QPR – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 2.203.253.40 2.10 1.72
29.11.21E1 Derby – QPR 1–2 (1–0) 3.003.402.40 2.00 1.80

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 44 26 11 7 90 44 +46 89
2 Ipswich 44 22 14 8 75 45 +30 80
3 Millwall 45 23 11 11 62 49 +13 80
4 Middlesbrough 45 22 13 10 70 45 +25 79
5 Southampton 44 21 13 10 77 53 +24 76
6 Wrexham 44 19 13 12 66 60 +6 70
7 Hull 45 20 10 15 68 65 +3 70
8 Derby 44 19 9 16 63 55 +8 66
9 Norwich 44 19 7 18 61 53 +8 64
10 Birmingham 44 16 12 16 54 54 0 60
11 Swansea 44 17 9 18 53 57 -4 60
12 Bristol City 44 16 11 17 56 57 -1 59
13 QPR 44 16 10 18 59 67 -8 58
14 Sheffield United 44 17 6 21 62 62 0 57
15 Preston 44 14 15 15 51 57 -6 57
16 Watford 45 14 15 16 53 61 -8 57
17 Stoke 44 15 10 19 50 51 -1 55
18 West Brom 45 13 14 18 47 56 -9 53
19 Charlton 45 13 14 18 43 55 -12 53
20 Blackburn 45 13 13 19 42 55 -13 52
21 Portsmouth 44 13 12 19 45 62 -17 51
22 Leicester 45 11 16 18 57 68 -11 49
23 Oxford 44 10 14 20 41 56 -15 44
24 Sheffield Weds 44 1 12 31 26 84 -58 15
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 22 16 4 2 48 18 +30 52
2 Ipswich 22 13 8 1 40 17 +23 47
3 Southampton 22 12 7 3 36 17 +19 43
4 Middlesbrough 23 12 6 5 34 18 +16 42
5 Birmingham 22 11 8 3 37 21 +16 41
6 Millwall 22 12 3 7 31 25 +6 39
7 Watford 22 10 7 5 30 23 +7 37
8 Swansea 22 10 6 6 31 26 +5 36
9 Derby 22 10 6 6 30 25 +5 36
10 Wrexham 22 10 6 6 39 35 +4 36
11 Hull 22 10 5 7 33 33 0 35
12 West Brom 23 8 10 5 28 25 +3 34
13 Stoke 22 9 6 7 33 25 +8 33
14 QPR 22 10 3 9 38 34 +4 33
15 Sheffield United 22 9 4 9 36 30 +6 31
16 Preston 22 8 7 7 27 27 0 31
17 Charlton 23 9 4 10 23 26 -3 31
18 Portsmouth 22 8 5 9 24 22 +2 29
19 Norwich 22 9 2 11 26 27 -1 29
20 Bristol City 22 8 4 10 31 31 0 28
21 Leicester 23 7 7 9 31 34 -3 28
22 Oxford 22 6 8 8 20 26 -6 26
23 Blackburn 22 4 9 9 19 26 -7 21
24 Sheffield Weds 22 0 7 15 12 43 -31 7
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Millwall 23 11 8 4 31 24 +7 41
2 Coventry 22 10 7 5 42 26 +16 37
3 Middlesbrough 22 10 7 5 36 27 +9 37
4 Norwich 22 10 5 7 35 26 +9 35
5 Hull 23 10 5 8 35 32 +3 35
6 Wrexham 22 9 7 6 27 25 +2 34
7 Ipswich 22 9 6 7 35 28 +7 33
8 Southampton 22 9 6 7 41 36 +5 33
9 Bristol City 22 8 7 7 25 26 -1 31
10 Blackburn 23 9 4 10 23 29 -6 31
11 Derby 22 9 3 10 33 30 +3 30
12 Sheffield United 22 8 2 12 26 32 -6 26
13 Preston 22 6 8 8 24 30 -6 26
14 QPR 22 6 7 9 21 33 -12 25
15 Swansea 22 7 3 12 22 31 -9 24
16 Charlton 22 4 10 8 20 29 -9 22
17 Stoke 22 6 4 12 17 26 -9 22
18 Portsmouth 22 5 7 10 21 40 -19 22
19 Leicester 22 4 9 9 26 34 -8 21
20 Watford 23 4 8 11 23 38 -15 20
21 West Brom 22 5 4 13 19 31 -12 19
22 Birmingham 22 5 4 13 17 33 -16 19
23 Oxford 22 4 6 12 21 30 -9 18
24 Sheffield Weds 22 1 5 16 14 41 -27 8

QPR   Derby

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 7 Hull 45 16 29 1.5 1.4 20 10 15 68 65 70
2 1 Coventry 44 17 27 2.0 1.0 26 11 7 90 44 89
3 5 Southampton 44 17 27 1.8 1.2 21 13 10 77 53 76
4 13 QPR 44 17 27 1.3 1.5 16 10 18 59 67 58
5 14 Sheffield United 44 19 25 1.4 1.4 17 6 21 62 62 57
6 22 Leicester 45 20 25 1.3 1.5 11 16 18 57 68 49
7 4 Middlesbrough 45 21 24 1.6 1.0 22 13 10 70 45 79
8 2 Ipswich 44 22 22 1.7 1.0 22 14 8 75 45 80
9 3 Millwall 45 23 22 1.4 1.1 23 11 11 62 49 80
10 8 Derby 44 22 22 1.4 1.2 19 9 16 63 55 66
11 11 Swansea 44 22 22 1.2 1.3 17 9 18 53 57 60
12 24 Sheffield Weds 44 22 22 0.6 1.9 1 12 31 26 84 15
13 6 Wrexham 44 23 21 1.5 1.4 19 13 12 66 60 70
14 9 Norwich 44 23 21 1.4 1.2 19 7 18 61 53 64
15 16 Watford 45 24 21 1.2 1.4 14 15 16 53 61 57
16 10 Birmingham 44 24 20 1.2 1.2 16 12 16 54 54 60
17 12 Bristol City 44 24 20 1.3 1.3 16 11 17 56 57 59
18 15 Preston 44 24 20 1.2 1.3 14 15 15 51 57 57
19 18 West Brom 45 25 20 1.0 1.2 13 14 18 47 56 53
20 23 Oxford 44 24 20 0.9 1.3 10 14 20 41 56 44
21 17 Stoke 44 25 19 1.1 1.2 15 10 19 50 51 55
22 21 Portsmouth 44 25 19 1.0 1.4 13 12 19 45 62 51
23 20 Blackburn 45 27 18 0.9 1.2 13 13 19 42 55 52
24 19 Charlton 45 28 17 1.0 1.2 13 14 18 43 55 53
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 13 QPR 22 5 17 1.7 1.5 10 3 9 38 34 33
2 14 Sheffield United 22 6 16 1.6 1.4 9 4 9 36 30 31
3 1 Coventry 22 8 14 2.2 0.8 16 4 2 48 18 52
4 7 Hull 22 9 13 1.5 1.5 10 5 7 33 33 35
5 2 Ipswich 22 10 12 1.8 0.8 13 8 1 40 17 47
6 3 Millwall 22 10 12 1.4 1.1 12 3 7 31 25 39
7 6 Wrexham 22 10 12 1.8 1.6 10 6 6 39 35 36
8 17 Stoke 22 10 12 1.5 1.1 9 6 7 33 25 33
9 22 Leicester 23 11 12 1.3 1.5 7 7 9 31 34 28
10 5 Southampton 22 11 11 1.6 0.8 12 7 3 36 17 43
11 11 Swansea 22 11 11 1.4 1.2 10 6 6 31 26 36
12 12 Bristol City 22 11 11 1.4 1.4 8 4 10 31 31 28
13 4 Middlesbrough 23 13 10 1.5 0.8 12 6 5 34 18 42
14 9 Norwich 22 12 10 1.2 1.2 9 2 11 26 27 29
15 10 Birmingham 22 12 10 1.7 1.0 11 8 3 37 21 41
16 15 Preston 22 12 10 1.2 1.2 8 7 7 27 27 31
17 18 West Brom 23 13 10 1.2 1.1 8 10 5 28 25 34
18 19 Charlton 23 13 10 1.0 1.1 9 4 10 23 26 31
19 24 Sheffield Weds 22 12 10 0.5 2.0 0 7 15 12 43 7
20 16 Watford 22 13 9 1.4 1.0 10 7 5 30 23 37
21 21 Portsmouth 22 13 9 1.1 1.0 8 5 9 24 22 29
22 23 Oxford 22 13 9 0.9 1.2 6 8 8 20 26 26
23 8 Derby 22 14 8 1.4 1.1 10 6 6 30 25 36
24 20 Blackburn 22 15 7 0.9 1.2 4 9 9 19 26 21
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Southampton 22 6 16 1.9 1.6 9 6 7 41 36 33
2 7 Hull 23 7 16 1.5 1.4 10 5 8 35 32 35
3 4 Middlesbrough 22 8 14 1.6 1.2 10 7 5 36 27 37
4 8 Derby 22 8 14 1.5 1.4 9 3 10 33 30 30
5 1 Coventry 22 9 13 1.9 1.2 10 7 5 42 26 37
6 22 Leicester 22 9 13 1.2 1.5 4 9 9 26 34 21
7 16 Watford 23 11 12 1.0 1.7 4 8 11 23 38 20
8 24 Sheffield Weds 22 10 12 0.6 1.9 1 5 16 14 41 8
9 9 Norwich 22 11 11 1.6 1.2 10 5 7 35 26 35
10 11 Swansea 22 11 11 1.0 1.4 7 3 12 22 31 24
11 20 Blackburn 23 12 11 1.0 1.3 9 4 10 23 29 31
12 23 Oxford 22 11 11 1.0 1.4 4 6 12 21 30 18
13 2 Ipswich 22 12 10 1.6 1.3 9 6 7 35 28 33
14 3 Millwall 23 13 10 1.3 1.0 11 8 4 31 24 41
15 10 Birmingham 22 12 10 0.8 1.5 5 4 13 17 33 19
16 13 QPR 22 12 10 1.0 1.5 6 7 9 21 33 25
17 15 Preston 22 12 10 1.1 1.4 6 8 8 24 30 26
18 18 West Brom 22 12 10 0.9 1.4 5 4 13 19 31 19
19 21 Portsmouth 22 12 10 1.0 1.8 5 7 10 21 40 22
20 6 Wrexham 22 13 9 1.2 1.1 9 7 6 27 25 34
21 12 Bristol City 22 13 9 1.1 1.2 8 7 7 25 26 31
22 14 Sheffield United 22 13 9 1.2 1.5 8 2 12 26 32 26
23 17 Stoke 22 15 7 0.8 1.2 6 4 12 17 26 22
24 19 Charlton 22 15 7 0.9 1.3 4 10 8 20 29 22

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51