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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: J Linington

Middlesbrough 2–1 Derby

Full time · half time 0–1 · season 2025/2026

Home ✓ 1.71 fair 2.39
Draw 3.60 fair 3.86
Away 5.00 fair 3.09
Under 2.5 1.67 fair 1.98
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.20 fair 2.02

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Middlesbrough Derby
21 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 1
9 Corners 8
9 Fouls 13
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (207 league matches this season so far).
Result Middlesbrough to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.86
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.23
Home / Draw / Away
MiddlesbroughDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.3% 1–0 10% 2–1 8.8%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Middlesbrough before this match, all matches
1.76points / match
1.29scored / match
1.06conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 17 played · 22:18
Derby before this match, all matches
1.53points / match
1.41scored / match
1.35conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 17 played · 24:23
Middlesbrough all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.29 Goals scored 1.41
1.06 Goals conceded 1.35
2.35 Total goals 2.76
12.65 Shots 8.76
3.76 Shots on target 2.94
11.12 Shots faced 12.88
5.47 Corners 4.47
4.47 Corners against 6.00
9.71 Fouls 12.71
1.82 Yellow cards 2.53
0.47 1st-half goals scored 0.59
0.59 1st-half goals conceded 0.47

How often Full Time

47% Wins 41%
35% Draws 29%
18% Losses 29%
94% Over 0.5 goals 100%
71% Over 1.5 goals 71%
47% Over 2.5 goals 47%
12% Over 3.5 goals 29%
6% Over 4.5 goals 12%
6% Over 5.5 goals 6%
59% Both teams scored 71%
29% Clean sheets 18%
18% Failed to score 12%

How often Half Time

29% Wins 35%
29% Draws 35%
41% Losses 29%
71% Over 0.5 goals 76%
24% Over 1.5 goals 18%
12% Over 2.5 goals 6%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Middlesbrough all matches
Derby all matches
Middlesbrough before this match, at home
2.13points / match
1.38scored / match
1.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 8 played · 11:8
Derby before this match, away
1.75points / match
1.50scored / match
1.25conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 8 played · 12:10
Middlesbrough at home away Derby

Per match

1.38 Goals scored 1.50
1.00 Goals conceded 1.25
2.38 Total goals 2.75
11.25 Shots 7.38
4.00 Shots on target 2.75
12.50 Shots faced 13.63
4.88 Corners 3.75
5.38 Corners against 7.25
9.00 Fouls 13.50
1.00 Yellow cards 2.88
0.63 1st-half goals scored 0.50
0.50 1st-half goals conceded 0.25

How often Full Time

63% Wins 50%
25% Draws 25%
13% Losses 25%
88% Over 0.5 goals 100%
63% Over 1.5 goals 75%
50% Over 2.5 goals 63%
13% Over 3.5 goals 38%
13% Over 4.5 goals 0%
13% Over 5.5 goals 0%
63% Both teams scored 75%
38% Clean sheets 13%
13% Failed to score 13%

How often Half Time

38% Wins 38%
38% Draws 38%
25% Losses 25%
63% Over 0.5 goals 63%
25% Over 1.5 goals 13%
25% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Middlesbrough at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

Middlesbrough all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.11.25 Middlesbrough – Coventry 2–4 (1–2) 2.573.402.55 1.93 1.93
22.11.25 Oxford – Middlesbrough 1–1 (1–0) 3.703.301.96 2.05 1.80
08.11.25 Middlesbrough – Birmingham 2–1 (2–1) 2.553.252.65 2.30 1.62
04.11.25 Leicester – Middlesbrough 1–1 (1–0) 2.153.403.20 1.98 1.88
01.11.25 Watford – Middlesbrough 3–0 (2–0) 2.653.402.45 2.05 1.80
25.10.25 Middlesbrough – Wrexham 1–1 (0–1) 1.683.604.75 2.00 1.85
22.10.25 Sheffield Weds – Middlesbrough 0–1 (0–1) 4.753.751.66 1.93 1.93
17.10.25 Middlesbrough – Ipswich 2–1 (1–0) 2.703.252.50 2.10 1.73
04.10.25 Portsmouth – Middlesbrough 1–0 (1–0) 3.003.402.25 2.03 1.83
30.09.25 Middlesbrough – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 1.763.404.50 2.00 1.80

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.11.25 Swansea – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 2.103.053.60 2.50 1.53
22.11.25 Derby – Watford 2–3 (1–0) 2.453.202.82 2.30 1.62
08.11.25 Blackburn – Derby 1–2 (0–2) 1.913.303.90 2.38 1.57
04.11.25 Derby – Hull 2–1 (1–0) 2.153.253.30 2.10 1.73
01.11.25 Sheffield United – Derby 1–3 (0–1) 1.763.504.33 2.20 1.67
25.10.25 Derby – QPR 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.252.65 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Derby – Norwich 1–0 (0–0) 2.503.052.82 2.20 1.67
18.10.25 Oxford – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.403.052.95 2.50 1.53
04.10.25 Derby – Southampton 1–1 (1–1) 3.503.302.05 2.20 1.67
30.09.25 Derby – Charlton 1–1 (0–1) 2.553.252.65 2.63 1.50

Middlesbrough at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.11.25 Middlesbrough – Coventry 2–4 (1–2) 2.573.402.55 1.93 1.93
08.11.25 Middlesbrough – Birmingham 2–1 (2–1) 2.553.252.65 2.30 1.62
25.10.25 Middlesbrough – Wrexham 1–1 (0–1) 1.683.604.75 2.00 1.85
17.10.25 Middlesbrough – Ipswich 2–1 (1–0) 2.703.252.50 2.10 1.73
30.09.25 Middlesbrough – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 1.763.404.50 2.00 1.80
19.09.25 Middlesbrough – West Brom 2–1 (1–0) 2.103.403.30 2.10 1.73
30.08.25 Middlesbrough – Sheffield United 1–0 (0–0) 2.153.403.10 1.90 1.95
09.08.25 Middlesbrough – Swansea 1–0 (0–0) 2.003.503.60 1.98 1.88
26.04.25 Middlesbrough – Norwich 0–0 (0–0) 1.554.335.25 1.53 2.50
18.04.25 Middlesbrough – Plymouth 2–1 (1–1) 1.365.007.00 1.57 2.38

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.11.25 Swansea – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 2.103.053.60 2.50 1.53
08.11.25 Blackburn – Derby 1–2 (0–2) 1.913.303.90 2.38 1.57
01.11.25 Sheffield United – Derby 1–3 (0–1) 1.763.504.33 2.20 1.67
18.10.25 Oxford – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.403.052.95 2.50 1.53
27.09.25 Wrexham – Derby 1–1 (0–0) 2.053.303.50 2.38 1.57
13.09.25 West Brom – Derby 0–1 (0–0) 1.713.504.75 2.30 1.62
30.08.25 Ipswich – Derby 2–2 (1–0) 1.493.906.50 2.00 1.80
09.08.25 Stoke – Derby 3–1 (0–0) 2.303.203.20 2.50 1.53
26.04.25 Hull – Derby 0–1 (0–0) 2.403.003.25 2.63 1.50
21.04.25 West Brom – Derby 1–3 (0–2) 1.913.503.80 2.38 1.57

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Middlesbrough winsDrawsDerby wins
4matches
1.75goals / match
25%over 2.5
25%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.03.25E1 Middlesbrough – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 1.653.605.50 1.90 1.95
17.08.24E1 Derby – Middlesbrough 1–0 (1–0) 3.503.502.00 1.85 2.00
12.02.22E1 Middlesbrough – Derby 4–1 (3–1) 1.613.805.75 2.10 1.72
21.08.21E1 Derby – Middlesbrough 0–0 (0–0) 3.103.102.45 2.30 1.61

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 17 12 4 1 47 17 +30 40
2 Stoke 18 9 3 6 26 14 +12 30
3 Middlesbrough 17 8 6 3 22 18 +4 30
4 Bristol City 18 8 5 5 26 20 +6 29
5 Hull 18 8 4 6 30 30 0 28
6 Millwall 17 8 4 5 19 23 -4 28
7 Ipswich 17 7 6 4 29 18 +11 27
8 Preston 17 7 6 4 22 17 +5 27
9 Derby 17 7 5 5 24 23 +1 26
10 Birmingham 17 7 4 6 25 19 +6 25
11 Wrexham 17 6 7 4 22 19 +3 25
12 QPR 17 7 4 6 21 25 -4 25
13 Southampton 17 6 6 5 26 22 +4 24
14 Watford 17 6 6 5 23 21 +2 24
15 Leicester 18 6 6 6 22 23 -1 24
16 Charlton 17 6 5 6 17 20 -3 23
17 West Brom 17 6 4 7 17 20 -3 22
18 Blackburn 16 6 1 9 16 21 -5 19
19 Sheffield United 18 6 1 11 20 28 -8 19
20 Oxford 18 4 6 8 20 25 -5 18
21 Swansea 17 4 5 8 16 24 -8 17
22 Portsmouth 18 4 5 9 15 25 -10 17
23 Norwich 17 2 4 11 16 28 -12 10
24 Sheffield Weds 17 1 5 11 12 33 -21 8
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 8 6 2 0 22 6 +16 20
2 Watford 9 5 3 1 15 9 +6 18
3 Birmingham 8 5 2 1 19 7 +12 17
4 Preston 9 5 2 2 13 9 +4 17
5 Middlesbrough 8 5 2 1 11 8 +3 17
6 Hull 9 5 2 2 15 14 +1 17
7 Stoke 9 5 1 3 15 7 +8 16
8 Ipswich 9 4 4 1 15 9 +6 16
9 Millwall 9 5 1 3 9 10 -1 16
10 Wrexham 9 4 3 2 14 12 +2 15
11 Bristol City 9 4 2 3 14 10 +4 14
12 Charlton 8 4 2 2 10 9 +1 14
13 West Brom 8 3 4 1 8 6 +2 13
14 Leicester 9 3 4 2 11 10 +1 13
15 Southampton 8 3 3 2 10 7 +3 12
16 Derby 9 3 3 3 12 13 -1 12
17 QPR 8 3 2 3 11 12 -1 11
18 Portsmouth 10 3 2 5 9 11 -2 11
19 Oxford 9 2 4 3 10 13 -3 10
20 Swansea 9 2 3 4 10 15 -5 9
21 Sheffield United 8 2 1 5 7 11 -4 7
22 Blackburn 8 1 1 6 7 14 -7 4
23 Sheffield Weds 9 0 2 7 3 21 -18 2
24 Norwich 8 0 1 7 6 14 -8 1
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 9 6 2 1 25 11 +14 20
2 Bristol City 9 4 3 2 12 10 +2 15
3 Blackburn 8 5 0 3 9 7 +2 15
4 Stoke 9 4 2 3 11 7 +4 14
5 Derby 8 4 2 2 12 10 +2 14
6 QPR 9 4 2 3 10 13 -3 14
7 Middlesbrough 9 3 4 2 11 10 +1 13
8 Southampton 9 3 3 3 16 15 +1 12
9 Millwall 8 3 3 2 10 13 -3 12
10 Sheffield United 10 4 0 6 13 17 -4 12
11 Ipswich 8 3 2 3 14 9 +5 11
12 Hull 9 3 2 4 15 16 -1 11
13 Leicester 9 3 2 4 11 13 -2 11
14 Preston 8 2 4 2 9 8 +1 10
15 Wrexham 8 2 4 2 8 7 +1 10
16 Norwich 9 2 3 4 10 14 -4 9
17 Charlton 9 2 3 4 7 11 -4 9
18 West Brom 9 3 0 6 9 14 -5 9
19 Oxford 9 2 2 5 10 12 -2 8
20 Swansea 8 2 2 4 6 9 -3 8
21 Birmingham 9 2 2 5 6 12 -6 8
22 Sheffield Weds 8 1 3 4 9 12 -3 6
23 Watford 8 1 3 4 8 12 -4 6
24 Portsmouth 8 1 3 4 6 14 -8 6

Middlesbrough   Derby

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Hull 18 5 13 1.7 1.7 8 4 6 30 30 28
2 1 Coventry 17 5 12 2.8 1.0 12 4 1 47 17 40
3 13 Southampton 17 6 11 1.5 1.3 6 6 5 26 22 24
4 19 Sheffield United 18 8 10 1.1 1.6 6 1 11 20 28 19
5 20 Oxford 18 8 10 1.1 1.4 4 6 8 20 25 18
6 24 Sheffield Weds 17 7 10 0.7 1.9 1 5 11 12 33 8
7 7 Ipswich 17 8 9 1.7 1.1 7 6 4 29 18 27
8 12 QPR 17 8 9 1.2 1.5 7 4 6 21 25 25
9 14 Watford 17 8 9 1.4 1.2 6 6 5 23 21 24
10 15 Leicester 18 9 9 1.2 1.3 6 6 6 22 23 24
11 2 Stoke 18 10 8 1.4 0.8 9 3 6 26 14 30
12 3 Middlesbrough 17 9 8 1.3 1.1 8 6 3 22 18 30
13 4 Bristol City 18 10 8 1.4 1.1 8 5 5 26 20 29
14 6 Millwall 17 9 8 1.1 1.4 8 4 5 19 23 28
15 9 Derby 17 9 8 1.4 1.4 7 5 5 24 23 26
16 10 Birmingham 17 9 8 1.5 1.1 7 4 6 25 19 25
17 18 Blackburn 16 8 8 1.0 1.3 6 1 9 16 21 19
18 21 Swansea 17 9 8 0.9 1.4 4 5 8 16 24 17
19 22 Portsmouth 18 10 8 0.8 1.4 4 5 9 15 25 17
20 23 Norwich 17 9 8 0.9 1.6 2 4 11 16 28 10
21 8 Preston 17 10 7 1.3 1.0 7 6 4 22 17 27
22 17 West Brom 17 10 7 1.0 1.2 6 4 7 17 20 22
23 11 Wrexham 17 11 6 1.3 1.1 6 7 4 22 19 25
24 16 Charlton 17 11 6 1.0 1.2 6 5 6 17 20 23
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Hull 9 3 6 1.7 1.6 5 2 2 15 14 17
2 14 Watford 9 3 6 1.7 1.0 5 3 1 15 9 18
3 1 Coventry 8 3 5 2.8 0.8 6 2 0 22 6 20
4 4 Bristol City 9 4 5 1.6 1.1 4 2 3 14 10 14
5 7 Ipswich 9 4 5 1.7 1.0 4 4 1 15 9 16
6 8 Preston 9 4 5 1.4 1.0 5 2 2 13 9 17
7 10 Birmingham 8 3 5 2.4 0.9 5 2 1 19 7 17
8 12 QPR 8 3 5 1.4 1.5 3 2 3 11 12 11
9 18 Blackburn 8 3 5 0.9 1.8 1 1 6 7 14 4
10 20 Oxford 9 4 5 1.1 1.4 2 4 3 10 13 10
11 21 Swansea 9 4 5 1.1 1.7 2 3 4 10 15 9
12 24 Sheffield Weds 9 4 5 0.3 2.3 0 2 7 3 21 2
13 2 Stoke 9 5 4 1.7 0.8 5 1 3 15 7 16
14 3 Middlesbrough 8 4 4 1.4 1.0 5 2 1 11 8 17
15 11 Wrexham 9 5 4 1.6 1.3 4 3 2 14 12 15
16 13 Southampton 8 4 4 1.2 0.9 3 3 2 10 7 12
17 19 Sheffield United 8 4 4 0.9 1.4 2 1 5 7 11 7
18 22 Portsmouth 10 6 4 0.9 1.1 3 2 5 9 11 11
19 23 Norwich 8 4 4 0.8 1.8 0 1 7 6 14 1
20 6 Millwall 9 6 3 1.0 1.1 5 1 3 9 10 16
21 9 Derby 9 6 3 1.3 1.4 3 3 3 12 13 12
22 15 Leicester 9 6 3 1.2 1.1 3 4 2 11 10 13
23 16 Charlton 8 5 3 1.2 1.1 4 2 2 10 9 14
24 17 West Brom 8 6 2 1.0 0.8 3 4 1 8 6 13
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Coventry 9 2 7 2.8 1.2 6 2 1 25 11 20
2 5 Hull 9 2 7 1.7 1.8 3 2 4 15 16 11
3 13 Southampton 9 2 7 1.8 1.7 3 3 3 16 15 12
4 15 Leicester 9 3 6 1.2 1.4 3 2 4 11 13 11
5 19 Sheffield United 10 4 6 1.3 1.7 4 0 6 13 17 12
6 6 Millwall 8 3 5 1.2 1.6 3 3 2 10 13 12
7 9 Derby 8 3 5 1.5 1.2 4 2 2 12 10 14
8 17 West Brom 9 4 5 1.0 1.6 3 0 6 9 14 9
9 20 Oxford 9 4 5 1.1 1.3 2 2 5 10 12 8
10 24 Sheffield Weds 8 3 5 1.1 1.5 1 3 4 9 12 6
11 2 Stoke 9 5 4 1.2 0.8 4 2 3 11 7 14
12 3 Middlesbrough 9 5 4 1.2 1.1 3 4 2 11 10 13
13 7 Ipswich 8 4 4 1.8 1.1 3 2 3 14 9 11
14 12 QPR 9 5 4 1.1 1.4 4 2 3 10 13 14
15 22 Portsmouth 8 4 4 0.8 1.8 1 3 4 6 14 6
16 23 Norwich 9 5 4 1.1 1.6 2 3 4 10 14 9
17 4 Bristol City 9 6 3 1.3 1.1 4 3 2 12 10 15
18 10 Birmingham 9 6 3 0.7 1.3 2 2 5 6 12 8
19 14 Watford 8 5 3 1.0 1.5 1 3 4 8 12 6
20 16 Charlton 9 6 3 0.8 1.2 2 3 4 7 11 9
21 18 Blackburn 8 5 3 1.1 0.9 5 0 3 9 7 15
22 21 Swansea 8 5 3 0.8 1.1 2 2 4 6 9 8
23 8 Preston 8 6 2 1.1 1.0 2 4 2 9 8 10
24 11 Wrexham 8 6 2 1.0 0.9 2 4 2 8 7 10

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 05:38