Middlesbrough 1–0 Derby – England Championship, 1 Mar 2025

Match facts

Middlesbrough Derby

18 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 1

5 Corners 3

9 Fouls 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (412 league matches this season so far).

Result Middlesbrough to win

Goals Over 2.5

Both teams score Yes fair 1.90

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.99

Home / Draw / Away

56% 23% 21%

MiddlesbroughDrawDerby

Under / Over 2.5 goals

47% 53%

Under 2.5Over 2.5

Both teams to score

47% 53%

NoYes

Total goals in the match

6% 0

17% 1

24% 2

22% 3

16% 4

15% 5+

Most likely scores

1–0 11% 1–1 10.9% 2–0 9.9%

Statistics 2024/2025, before this match

Middlesbrough before this match, all matches

1.38points / match

1.59scored / match

1.35conceded / match

13 8 13

WonDrawnLost 34 played · 54:46

Derby before this match, all matches

0.85points / match

0.97scored / match

1.38conceded / match

7 8 19

WonDrawnLost 34 played · 33:47

Middlesbrough all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.59 Goals scored 0.97

1.35 Goals conceded 1.38

2.94 Total goals 2.35

14.00 Shots 10.53

4.94 Shots on target 3.26

10.41 Shots faced 11.62

5.09 Corners 5.24

5.00 Corners against 5.32

9.41 Fouls 11.97

1.56 Yellow cards 1.85

0.82 1st-half goals scored 0.35

0.56 1st-half goals conceded 0.53

How often Full Time

38% Wins 21%

24% Draws 24%

38% Losses 56%

97% Over 0.5 goals 94%

71% Over 1.5 goals 71%

50% Over 2.5 goals 41%

35% Over 3.5 goals 15%

21% Over 4.5 goals 9%

15% Over 5.5 goals 6%

56% Both teams scored 50%

26% Clean sheets 21%

21% Failed to score 35%

How often Half Time

35% Wins 21%

38% Draws 44%

26% Losses 35%

79% Over 0.5 goals 65%

41% Over 1.5 goals 21%

12% Over 2.5 goals 3%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Middlesbrough all matches

1

W

1

D

1

2

L

2

W

1

2

L

2

3

L

1

3

L

1

L

1

2

L

3

1

W

Derby all matches

2

4

L

1

L

2

L

1

L

1

2

L

1

L

1

D

4

L

1

L

Middlesbrough before this match, at home

1.53points / match

1.41scored / match

1.12conceded / match

7 5 5

WonDrawnLost 17 played · 24:19

Derby before this match, away

0.47points / match

0.82scored / match

1.82conceded / match

1 5 11

WonDrawnLost 17 played · 14:31

Middlesbrough at home away Derby

Per match

1.41 Goals scored 0.82

1.12 Goals conceded 1.82

2.53 Total goals 2.65

14.82 Shots 8.35

4.53 Shots on target 2.76

9.29 Shots faced 13.12

5.53 Corners 5.18

4.41 Corners against 5.53

9.47 Fouls 11.94

1.41 Yellow cards 2.06

0.88 1st-half goals scored 0.18

0.53 1st-half goals conceded 0.71

How often Full Time

41% Wins 6%

29% Draws 29%

29% Losses 65%

94% Over 0.5 goals 94%

65% Over 1.5 goals 82%

35% Over 2.5 goals 47%

29% Over 3.5 goals 18%

18% Over 4.5 goals 12%

12% Over 5.5 goals 12%

41% Both teams scored 65%

35% Clean sheets 6%

29% Failed to score 35%

How often Half Time

41% Wins 6%

35% Draws 47%

24% Losses 47%

82% Over 0.5 goals 65%

47% Over 1.5 goals 24%

12% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Middlesbrough at home

5

1

W

1

L

3

1

W

1

W

3

D

1

D

2

W

2

3

L

1

L

Derby away

2

1

W

1

D

2

L

D

1

2

L

2

4

L

1

L

1

2

L

1

D

4

L

Last 10 matches before this match

Middlesbrough all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
25.02.25	Stoke – Middlesbrough	1–3 (1–1)	2.90	3.40	2.35	1.93	1.93
21.02.25	Bristol City – Middlesbrough	2–1 (0–1)	2.30	3.40	3.00	1.93	1.93
15.02.25	Middlesbrough – Watford	0–1 (0–1)	1.60	3.90	5.50	1.62	2.30
12.02.25	Sheffield United – Middlesbrough	3–1 (1–1)	2.25	3.40	3.10	1.93	1.93
03.02.25	Middlesbrough – Sunderland	2–3 (1–1)	2.35	3.40	3.00	1.93	1.93
25.01.25	Preston – Middlesbrough	2–1 (1–0)	3.25	3.25	2.25	2.10	1.73
21.01.25	Middlesbrough – West Brom	2–0 (1–0)	1.95	3.40	3.75	2.00	1.85
18.01.25	Portsmouth – Middlesbrough	2–1 (0–1)	4.50	3.60	1.75	1.67	2.20
04.01.25	Middlesbrough – Cardiff	1–1 (1–1)	1.57	4.20	5.25	1.73	2.10
01.01.25	Hull – Middlesbrough	0–1 (0–0)	3.25	3.50	2.10	1.88	1.98

Derby all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
22.02.25	Derby – Millwall	0–1 (0–0)	2.50	2.90	3.25	3.00	1.40
14.02.25	QPR – Derby	4–0 (2–0)	2.05	3.20	4.00	2.63	1.50
11.02.25	Derby – Oxford	0–0 (0–0)	2.20	3.00	3.60	2.75	1.44
08.02.25	Norwich – Derby	1–1 (0–0)	1.70	3.90	4.75	1.98	1.88
01.02.25	Derby – Sheffield United	0–1 (0–0)	3.60	3.10	2.15	2.20	1.67
25.01.25	Cardiff – Derby	2–1 (0–0)	2.20	3.10	3.40	2.50	1.53
21.01.25	Derby – Sunderland	0–1 (0–1)	3.50	3.30	2.10	2.20	1.67
18.01.25	Derby – Watford	0–2 (0–1)	2.20	3.40	3.20	2.10	1.73
04.01.25	Bristol City – Derby	1–0 (1–0)	1.90	3.30	4.20	2.30	1.62
01.01.25	Sheffield Weds – Derby	4–2 (1–0)	2.00	3.40	3.80	2.10	1.73

Middlesbrough at home

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
15.02.25	Middlesbrough – Watford	0–1 (0–1)	1.60	3.90	5.50	1.62	2.30
03.02.25	Middlesbrough – Sunderland	2–3 (1–1)	2.35	3.40	3.00	1.93	1.93
21.01.25	Middlesbrough – West Brom	2–0 (1–0)	1.95	3.40	3.75	2.00	1.85
04.01.25	Middlesbrough – Cardiff	1–1 (1–1)	1.57	4.20	5.25	1.73	2.10
29.12.24	Middlesbrough – Burnley	0–0 (0–0)	2.25	3.25	3.10	2.10	1.73
26.12.24	Middlesbrough – Sheffield Weds	3–3 (3–0)	1.65	3.90	5.00	1.73	2.10
14.12.24	Middlesbrough – Millwall	1–0 (1–0)	1.70	3.80	4.75	2.10	1.73
30.11.24	Middlesbrough – Hull	3–1 (2–0)	1.50	4.50	6.00	1.62	2.30
27.11.24	Middlesbrough – Blackburn	0–1 (0–0)	1.53	4.10	6.25	1.73	2.10
09.11.24	Middlesbrough – Luton	5–1 (2–0)	1.73	4.00	4.33	1.73	2.10

Derby away

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
14.02.25	QPR – Derby	4–0 (2–0)	2.05	3.20	4.00	2.63	1.50
08.02.25	Norwich – Derby	1–1 (0–0)	1.70	3.90	4.75	1.98	1.88
25.01.25	Cardiff – Derby	2–1 (0–0)	2.20	3.10	3.40	2.50	1.53
04.01.25	Bristol City – Derby	1–0 (1–0)	1.90	3.30	4.20	2.30	1.62
01.01.25	Sheffield Weds – Derby	4–2 (1–0)	2.00	3.40	3.80	2.10	1.73
20.12.24	Luton – Derby	2–1 (0–0)	2.15	3.20	3.50	2.30	1.62
10.12.24	Burnley – Derby	0–0 (0–0)	1.70	3.50	5.25	2.63	1.50
07.12.24	Leeds – Derby	2–0 (2–0)	1.36	4.75	8.50	1.88	1.98
23.11.24	Preston – Derby	1–1 (1–1)	2.20	3.20	3.40	2.20	1.67
06.11.24	Coventry – Derby	1–2 (0–1)	1.75	3.70	4.50	1.90	1.95

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

1 1 1

Middlesbrough winsDrawsDerby wins

3matches

2.00goals / match

33%over 2.5

33%both scored

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
17.08.24E1	Derby – Middlesbrough	1–0 (1–0)	3.50	3.50	2.00	1.85	2.00
12.02.22E1	Middlesbrough – Derby	4–1 (3–1)	1.61	3.80	5.75	2.10	1.72
21.08.21E1	Derby – Middlesbrough	0–0 (0–0)	3.10	3.10	2.45	2.30	1.61

England Championship table 2024/2025, before this match

All matches – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Leeds	35	22	10	3	72	22	+50	76
2	Sheffield United	34	22	6	6	48	26	+22	72
3	Burnley	34	18	14	2	43	9	+34	68
4	Sunderland	35	18	11	6	52	32	+20	65
5	Coventry	35	15	8	12	49	44	+5	53
6	West Brom	35	12	16	7	45	32	+13	52
7	Blackburn	35	15	7	13	40	35	+5	52
8	Bristol City	34	12	13	9	43	38	+5	49
9	Norwich	35	12	12	11	56	48	+8	48
10	Watford	34	14	6	14	45	48	-3	48
11	Middlesbrough	34	13	8	13	54	46	+8	47
12	Millwall	34	11	12	11	34	34	0	45
13	Sheffield Weds	35	12	9	14	47	56	-9	45
14	QPR	34	11	11	12	40	43	-3	44
15	Preston	34	9	15	10	36	41	-5	42
16	Swansea	34	11	7	16	37	46	-9	40
17	Portsmouth	34	10	9	15	43	56	-13	39
18	Oxford	35	9	11	15	36	52	-16	38
19	Cardiff	34	8	12	14	37	55	-18	36
20	Stoke	34	8	11	15	34	47	-13	35
21	Hull	34	8	9	17	33	44	-11	33
22	Plymouth	34	6	12	16	36	68	-32	30
23	Derby	34	7	8	19	33	47	-14	29
24	Luton	34	7	7	20	31	55	-24	28

Home – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Leeds	18	14	3	1	45	9	+36	45
2	Sheffield United	17	12	2	3	25	13	+12	38
3	Sunderland	17	10	6	1	28	13	+15	36
4	Burnley	17	9	8	0	22	4	+18	35
5	Blackburn	18	10	3	5	25	15	+10	33
6	Bristol City	17	9	5	3	25	13	+12	32
7	Watford	17	10	2	5	22	17	+5	32
8	West Brom	17	8	7	2	23	11	+12	31
9	Norwich	17	8	6	3	41	23	+18	30
10	Coventry	17	9	3	5	28	20	+8	30
11	Portsmouth	17	8	5	4	26	16	+10	29
12	Oxford	18	8	5	5	26	25	+1	29
13	Preston	17	6	9	2	19	14	+5	27
14	Middlesbrough	17	7	5	5	24	19	+5	26
15	QPR	17	7	5	5	26	22	+4	26
16	Millwall	17	7	4	6	19	15	+4	25
17	Plymouth	17	6	7	4	30	28	+2	25
18	Cardiff	17	7	3	7	20	20	0	24
19	Swansea	17	6	5	6	24	19	+5	23
20	Luton	17	6	5	6	19	19	0	23
21	Stoke	17	5	7	5	22	21	+1	22
22	Sheffield Weds	18	5	7	6	27	27	0	22
23	Derby	17	6	3	8	19	16	+3	21
24	Hull	17	2	7	8	17	23	-6	13

Away – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Sheffield United	17	10	4	3	23	13	+10	34
2	Burnley	17	9	6	2	21	5	+16	33
3	Leeds	17	8	7	2	27	13	+14	31
4	Sunderland	18	8	5	5	24	19	+5	29
5	Coventry	18	6	5	7	21	24	-3	23
6	Sheffield Weds	17	7	2	8	20	29	-9	23
7	Middlesbrough	17	6	3	8	30	27	+3	21
8	West Brom	18	4	9	5	22	21	+1	21
9	Millwall	17	4	8	5	15	19	-4	20
10	Hull	17	6	2	9	16	21	-5	20
11	Blackburn	17	5	4	8	15	20	-5	19
12	QPR	17	4	6	7	14	21	-7	18
13	Norwich	18	4	6	8	15	25	-10	18
14	Bristol City	17	3	8	6	18	25	-7	17
15	Swansea	17	5	2	10	13	27	-14	17
16	Watford	17	4	4	9	23	31	-8	16
17	Preston	17	3	6	8	17	27	-10	15
18	Stoke	17	3	4	10	12	26	-14	13
19	Cardiff	17	1	9	7	17	35	-18	12
20	Portsmouth	17	2	4	11	17	40	-23	10
21	Oxford	17	1	6	10	10	27	-17	9
22	Derby	17	1	5	11	14	31	-17	8
23	Luton	17	1	2	14	12	36	-24	5
24	Plymouth	17	0	5	12	6	40	-34	5

Middlesbrough Derby

Under / Over goals 2024/2025, before this match

All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1	17	Portsmouth	34	11	23	1.3	1.6	10	9	15	43	56	39
2	10	Watford	34	13	21	1.3	1.4	14	6	14	45	48	48
3	13	Sheffield Weds	35	15	20	1.3	1.6	12	9	14	47	56	45
4	5	Coventry	35	16	19	1.4	1.3	15	8	12	49	44	53
5	22	Plymouth	34	16	18	1.1	2.0	6	12	16	36	68	30
6	4	Sunderland	35	18	17	1.5	0.9	18	11	6	52	32	65
7	9	Norwich	35	18	17	1.6	1.4	12	12	11	56	48	48
8	11	Middlesbrough	34	17	17	1.6	1.4	13	8	13	54	46	47
9	16	Swansea	34	17	17	1.1	1.4	11	7	16	37	46	40
10	14	QPR	34	18	16	1.2	1.3	11	11	12	40	43	44
11	24	Luton	34	18	16	0.9	1.6	7	7	20	31	55	28
12	1	Leeds	35	20	15	2.1	0.6	22	10	3	72	22	76
13	15	Preston	34	19	15	1.1	1.2	9	15	10	36	41	42
14	8	Bristol City	34	20	14	1.3	1.1	12	13	9	43	38	49
15	19	Cardiff	34	20	14	1.1	1.6	8	12	14	37	55	36
16	20	Stoke	34	20	14	1.0	1.4	8	11	15	34	47	35
17	23	Derby	34	20	14	1.0	1.4	7	8	19	33	47	29
18	6	West Brom	35	22	13	1.3	0.9	12	16	7	45	32	52
19	7	Blackburn	35	22	13	1.1	1.0	15	7	13	40	35	52
20	18	Oxford	35	22	13	1.0	1.5	9	11	15	36	52	38
21	2	Sheffield United	34	22	12	1.4	0.8	22	6	6	48	26	72
22	21	Hull	34	22	12	1.0	1.3	8	9	17	33	44	33
23	12	Millwall	34	25	9	1.0	1.0	11	12	11	34	34	45
24	3	Burnley	34	27	7	1.3	0.3	18	14	2	43	9	68

Home – Under/Over goals
#
1	5	Coventry	17	5	12	1.6	1.2	9	3	5	28	20	30
2	9	Norwich	17	6	11	2.4	1.4	8	6	3	41	23	30
3	17	Portsmouth	17	6	11	1.5	0.9	8	5	4	26	16	29
4	22	Plymouth	17	6	11	1.8	1.6	6	7	4	30	28	25
5	1	Leeds	18	8	10	2.5	0.5	14	3	1	45	9	45
6	10	Watford	17	7	10	1.3	1.0	10	2	5	22	17	32
7	14	QPR	17	7	10	1.5	1.3	7	5	5	26	22	26
8	4	Sunderland	17	9	8	1.6	0.8	10	6	1	28	13	36
9	13	Sheffield Weds	18	10	8	1.5	1.5	5	7	6	27	27	22
10	16	Swansea	17	9	8	1.4	1.1	6	5	6	24	19	23
11	20	Stoke	17	9	8	1.3	1.2	5	7	5	22	21	22
12	24	Luton	17	9	8	1.1	1.1	6	5	6	19	19	23
13	8	Bristol City	17	10	7	1.5	0.8	9	5	3	25	13	32
14	18	Oxford	18	11	7	1.4	1.4	8	5	5	26	25	29
15	2	Sheffield United	17	11	6	1.5	0.8	12	2	3	25	13	38
16	7	Blackburn	18	12	6	1.4	0.8	10	3	5	25	15	33
17	11	Middlesbrough	17	11	6	1.4	1.1	7	5	5	24	19	26
18	21	Hull	17	11	6	1.0	1.4	2	7	8	17	23	13
19	23	Derby	17	11	6	1.1	0.9	6	3	8	19	16	21
20	6	West Brom	17	12	5	1.4	0.6	8	7	2	23	11	31
21	12	Millwall	17	12	5	1.1	0.9	7	4	6	19	15	25
22	15	Preston	17	12	5	1.1	0.8	6	9	2	19	14	27
23	19	Cardiff	17	12	5	1.2	1.2	7	3	7	20	20	24
24	3	Burnley	17	13	4	1.3	0.2	9	8	0	22	4	35

Away – Under/Over goals
#
1	13	Sheffield Weds	17	5	12	1.2	1.7	7	2	8	20	29	23
2	17	Portsmouth	17	5	12	1.0	2.4	2	4	11	17	40	10
3	10	Watford	17	6	11	1.4	1.8	4	4	9	23	31	16
4	11	Middlesbrough	17	6	11	1.8	1.6	6	3	8	30	27	21
5	15	Preston	17	7	10	1.0	1.6	3	6	8	17	27	15
6	4	Sunderland	18	9	9	1.3	1.1	8	5	5	24	19	29
7	16	Swansea	17	8	9	0.8	1.6	5	2	10	13	27	17
8	19	Cardiff	17	8	9	1.0	2.1	1	9	7	17	35	12
9	6	West Brom	18	10	8	1.2	1.2	4	9	5	22	21	21
10	23	Derby	17	9	8	0.8	1.8	1	5	11	14	31	8
11	24	Luton	17	9	8	0.7	2.1	1	2	14	12	36	5
12	5	Coventry	18	11	7	1.2	1.3	6	5	7	21	24	23
13	7	Blackburn	17	10	7	0.9	1.2	5	4	8	15	20	19
14	8	Bristol City	17	10	7	1.1	1.5	3	8	6	18	25	17
15	22	Plymouth	17	10	7	0.4	2.4	0	5	12	6	40	5
16	2	Sheffield United	17	11	6	1.4	0.8	10	4	3	23	13	34
17	9	Norwich	18	12	6	0.8	1.4	4	6	8	15	25	18
18	14	QPR	17	11	6	0.8	1.2	4	6	7	14	21	18
19	18	Oxford	17	11	6	0.6	1.6	1	6	10	10	27	9
20	20	Stoke	17	11	6	0.7	1.5	3	4	10	12	26	13
21	21	Hull	17	11	6	0.9	1.2	6	2	9	16	21	20
22	1	Leeds	17	12	5	1.6	0.8	8	7	2	27	13	31
23	12	Millwall	17	13	4	0.9	1.1	4	8	5	15	19	20
24	3	Burnley	17	14	3	1.2	0.3	9	6	2	21	5	33

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.