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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: G Ward

Derby 2–3 Watford

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2025/2026

Home 2.45 fair 2.41
Draw 3.20 fair 3.80
Away ✓ 2.82 fair 3.12
Under 2.5 1.62 fair 1.91
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.30 fair 2.10

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Watford
9 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 4
9 Corners 3
8 Fouls 15
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✗ Goals missed ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (183 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.91
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.19
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawWatford
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.5% 1–0 10.5% 0–1 9%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
1.53points / match
1.33scored / match
1.27conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 15 played · 20:19
Watford before this match, all matches
1.33points / match
1.27scored / match
1.20conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 15 played · 19:18
Derby all matches all matches Watford

Per match

1.33 Goals scored 1.27
1.27 Goals conceded 1.20
2.60 Total goals 2.47
8.47 Shots 13.67
2.87 Shots on target 4.80
13.07 Shots faced 12.73
4.33 Corners 4.20
6.33 Corners against 5.00
12.53 Fouls 11.47
2.60 Yellow cards 1.93
0.53 1st-half goals scored 0.67
0.53 1st-half goals conceded 0.80

How often Full Time

40% Wins 33%
33% Draws 33%
27% Losses 33%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
67% Over 1.5 goals 73%
40% Over 2.5 goals 53%
27% Over 3.5 goals 20%
7% Over 4.5 goals 0%
7% Over 5.5 goals 0%
67% Both teams scored 67%
20% Clean sheets 7%
13% Failed to score 27%

How often Half Time

27% Wins 27%
40% Draws 40%
33% Losses 33%
73% Over 0.5 goals 80%
20% Over 1.5 goals 47%
7% Over 2.5 goals 20%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Watford all matches
Derby before this match, at home
1.50points / match
1.25scored / match
1.25conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 8 played · 10:10
Watford before this match, away
0.43points / match
0.71scored / match
1.43conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 5:10
Derby at home away Watford

Per match

1.25 Goals scored 0.71
1.25 Goals conceded 1.43
2.50 Total goals 2.14
10.13 Shots 10.29
3.25 Shots on target 3.71
12.00 Shots faced 13.29
4.63 Corners 3.71
5.13 Corners against 4.86
12.50 Fouls 12.43
2.25 Yellow cards 2.43
0.63 1st-half goals scored 0.29
0.75 1st-half goals conceded 0.86

How often Full Time

38% Wins 0%
38% Draws 43%
25% Losses 57%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
63% Over 1.5 goals 57%
25% Over 2.5 goals 29%
13% Over 3.5 goals 29%
13% Over 4.5 goals 0%
13% Over 5.5 goals 0%
63% Both teams scored 57%
25% Clean sheets 0%
13% Failed to score 43%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 14%
38% Draws 43%
38% Losses 43%
88% Over 0.5 goals 71%
25% Over 1.5 goals 29%
13% Over 2.5 goals 14%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Watford away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
08.11.25 Blackburn – Derby 1–2 (0–2) 1.913.303.90 2.38 1.57
04.11.25 Derby – Hull 2–1 (1–0) 2.153.253.30 2.10 1.73
01.11.25 Sheffield United – Derby 1–3 (0–1) 1.763.504.33 2.20 1.67
25.10.25 Derby – QPR 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.252.65 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Derby – Norwich 1–0 (0–0) 2.503.052.82 2.20 1.67
18.10.25 Oxford – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.403.052.95 2.50 1.53
04.10.25 Derby – Southampton 1–1 (1–1) 3.503.302.05 2.20 1.67
30.09.25 Derby – Charlton 1–1 (0–1) 2.553.252.65 2.63 1.50
27.09.25 Wrexham – Derby 1–1 (0–0) 2.053.303.50 2.38 1.57
20.09.25 Derby – Preston 0–1 (0–1) 2.303.103.10 2.75 1.44

Watford all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
07.11.25 Watford – Bristol City 1–1 (1–1) 2.013.403.60 2.20 1.67
04.11.25 Ipswich – Watford 1–1 (1–1) 1.663.605.00 1.90 1.95
01.11.25 Watford – Middlesbrough 3–0 (2–0) 2.653.402.45 2.05 1.80
25.10.25 Coventry – Watford 3–1 (3–0) 1.454.756.00 1.67 2.20
22.10.25 Watford – West Brom 2–1 (1–1) 2.653.252.55 2.20 1.67
18.10.25 Sheffield United – Watford 1–0 (0–0) 1.913.303.90 2.00 1.80
04.10.25 Watford – Oxford 2–1 (2–1) 1.963.253.90 2.00 1.80
01.10.25 Portsmouth – Watford 2–2 (1–0) 2.103.403.25 2.10 1.73
27.09.25 Watford – Hull 2–1 (0–1) 2.203.403.10 1.95 1.90
22.09.25 Millwall – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 2.013.203.80 2.30 1.62

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
04.11.25 Derby – Hull 2–1 (1–0) 2.153.253.30 2.10 1.73
25.10.25 Derby – QPR 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.252.65 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Derby – Norwich 1–0 (0–0) 2.503.052.82 2.20 1.67
04.10.25 Derby – Southampton 1–1 (1–1) 3.503.302.05 2.20 1.67
30.09.25 Derby – Charlton 1–1 (0–1) 2.553.252.65 2.63 1.50
20.09.25 Derby – Preston 0–1 (0–1) 2.303.103.10 2.75 1.44
22.08.25 Derby – Bristol City 1–1 (0–1) 3.003.202.38 2.38 1.57
16.08.25 Derby – Coventry 3–5 (2–2) 3.103.202.38 2.30 1.62
03.05.25 Derby – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 2.053.004.20 2.50 1.53
18.04.25 Derby – Luton 0–1 (0–1) 2.602.903.00 2.75 1.44

Watford away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
04.11.25 Ipswich – Watford 1–1 (1–1) 1.663.605.00 1.90 1.95
25.10.25 Coventry – Watford 3–1 (3–0) 1.454.756.00 1.67 2.20
18.10.25 Sheffield United – Watford 1–0 (0–0) 1.913.303.90 2.00 1.80
01.10.25 Portsmouth – Watford 2–2 (1–0) 2.103.403.25 2.10 1.73
22.09.25 Millwall – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 2.013.203.80 2.30 1.62
23.08.25 Swansea – Watford 1–1 (0–1) 2.003.303.70 2.20 1.67
09.08.25 Charlton – Watford 1–0 (0–0) 2.453.302.88 2.20 1.67
26.04.25 Blackburn – Watford 2–1 (0–0) 1.703.605.00 2.00 1.85
21.04.25 Portsmouth – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 2.003.703.40 2.10 1.73
12.04.25 West Brom – Watford 2–1 (1–0) 1.733.704.75 2.10 1.73

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Derby winsDrawsWatford wins
2matches
2.50goals / match
50%over 2.5
50%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
18.01.25E1 Derby – Watford 0–2 (0–1) 2.203.403.20 2.10 1.73
24.08.24E1 Watford – Derby 2–1 (1–1) 1.853.504.10 1.88 1.98

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 16 11 4 1 43 15 +28 37
2 Middlesbrough 15 8 5 2 19 13 +6 29
3 Stoke 15 8 3 4 21 10 +11 27
4 Bristol City 16 7 5 4 25 18 +7 26
5 Preston 16 7 5 4 21 16 +5 26
6 Hull 15 7 4 4 26 24 +2 25
7 Millwall 15 7 4 4 17 20 -3 25
8 Ipswich 14 6 5 3 26 16 +10 23
9 Derby 15 6 5 4 20 19 +1 23
10 Charlton 16 6 5 5 17 17 0 23
11 Birmingham 15 6 3 6 20 17 +3 21
12 Leicester 15 5 6 4 18 16 +2 21
13 Southampton 16 5 6 5 23 22 +1 21
14 Wrexham 15 5 6 4 20 19 +1 21
15 West Brom 16 6 3 7 16 19 -3 21
16 Watford 15 5 5 5 19 18 +1 20
17 Blackburn 15 6 1 8 16 20 -4 19
18 QPR 15 5 4 6 17 23 -6 19
19 Swansea 16 4 5 7 15 22 -7 17
20 Portsmouth 15 3 5 7 12 20 -8 14
21 Oxford 15 3 4 8 16 22 -6 13
22 Sheffield United 15 3 1 11 11 26 -15 10
23 Norwich 15 2 3 10 14 23 -9 9
24 Sheffield Weds 15 1 5 9 12 29 -17 8
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 8 6 2 0 22 6 +16 20
2 Watford 8 5 2 1 14 8 +6 17
3 Middlesbrough 7 5 2 0 9 4 +5 17
4 Preston 9 5 2 2 13 9 +4 17
5 Hull 8 5 2 1 15 12 +3 17
6 Ipswich 8 4 3 1 15 9 +6 15
7 Birmingham 7 4 2 1 15 6 +9 14
8 Bristol City 9 4 2 3 14 10 +4 14
9 Charlton 8 4 2 2 10 9 +1 14
10 Stoke 7 4 1 2 11 5 +6 13
11 Millwall 8 4 1 3 8 10 -2 13
12 West Brom 7 3 3 1 7 5 +2 12
13 Wrexham 8 3 3 2 12 12 0 12
14 Derby 8 3 3 2 10 10 0 12
15 Leicester 7 2 4 1 7 6 +1 10
16 Southampton 7 2 3 2 7 7 0 9
17 Swansea 8 2 3 3 9 13 -4 9
18 QPR 7 2 2 3 8 10 -2 8
19 Portsmouth 8 2 2 4 6 9 -3 8
20 Oxford 7 1 3 3 7 11 -4 6
21 Blackburn 7 1 1 5 7 13 -6 4
22 Sheffield United 7 1 1 5 4 11 -7 4
23 Sheffield Weds 8 0 2 6 3 18 -15 2
24 Norwich 7 0 0 7 5 13 -8 0
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 8 5 2 1 21 9 +12 17
2 Blackburn 8 5 0 3 9 7 +2 15
3 Stoke 8 4 2 2 10 5 +5 14
4 Bristol City 7 3 3 1 11 8 +3 12
5 Southampton 9 3 3 3 16 15 +1 12
6 Middlesbrough 8 3 3 2 10 9 +1 12
7 Millwall 7 3 3 1 9 10 -1 12
8 Leicester 8 3 2 3 11 10 +1 11
9 Derby 7 3 2 2 10 9 +1 11
10 QPR 8 3 2 3 9 13 -4 11
11 Preston 7 2 3 2 8 7 +1 9
12 Wrexham 7 2 3 2 8 7 +1 9
13 Norwich 8 2 3 3 9 10 -1 9
14 Charlton 8 2 3 3 7 8 -1 9
15 West Brom 9 3 0 6 9 14 -5 9
16 Ipswich 6 2 2 2 11 7 +4 8
17 Hull 7 2 2 3 11 12 -1 8
18 Swansea 8 2 2 4 6 9 -3 8
19 Oxford 8 2 1 5 9 11 -2 7
20 Birmingham 8 2 1 5 5 11 -6 7
21 Sheffield Weds 7 1 3 3 9 11 -2 6
22 Portsmouth 7 1 3 3 6 11 -5 6
23 Sheffield United 8 2 0 6 7 15 -8 6
24 Watford 7 0 3 4 5 10 -5 3

Derby   Watford

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Coventry 16 5 11 2.7 0.9 11 4 1 43 15 37
2 6 Hull 15 4 11 1.7 1.6 7 4 4 26 24 25
3 13 Southampton 16 6 10 1.4 1.4 5 6 5 23 22 21
4 21 Oxford 15 6 9 1.1 1.5 3 4 8 16 22 13
5 24 Sheffield Weds 15 6 9 0.8 1.9 1 5 9 12 29 8
6 4 Bristol City 16 8 8 1.6 1.1 7 5 4 25 18 26
7 8 Ipswich 14 6 8 1.9 1.1 6 5 3 26 16 23
8 16 Watford 15 7 8 1.3 1.2 5 5 5 19 18 20
9 17 Blackburn 15 7 8 1.1 1.3 6 1 8 16 20 19
10 18 QPR 15 7 8 1.1 1.5 5 4 6 17 23 19
11 2 Middlesbrough 15 8 7 1.3 0.9 8 5 2 19 13 29
12 5 Preston 16 9 7 1.3 1.0 7 5 4 21 16 26
13 7 Millwall 15 8 7 1.1 1.3 7 4 4 17 20 25
14 11 Birmingham 15 8 7 1.3 1.1 6 3 6 20 17 21
15 15 West Brom 16 9 7 1.0 1.2 6 3 7 16 19 21
16 19 Swansea 16 9 7 0.9 1.4 4 5 7 15 22 17
17 22 Sheffield United 15 8 7 0.7 1.7 3 1 11 11 26 10
18 23 Norwich 15 8 7 0.9 1.5 2 3 10 14 23 9
19 9 Derby 15 9 6 1.3 1.3 6 5 4 20 19 23
20 12 Leicester 15 9 6 1.2 1.1 5 6 4 18 16 21
21 14 Wrexham 15 9 6 1.3 1.3 5 6 4 20 19 21
22 20 Portsmouth 15 9 6 0.8 1.3 3 5 7 12 20 14
23 3 Stoke 15 10 5 1.4 0.7 8 3 4 21 10 27
24 10 Charlton 16 11 5 1.1 1.1 6 5 5 17 17 23
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 6 Hull 8 2 6 1.9 1.5 5 2 1 15 12 17
2 16 Watford 8 2 6 1.8 1.0 5 2 1 14 8 17
3 1 Coventry 8 3 5 2.8 0.8 6 2 0 22 6 20
4 4 Bristol City 9 4 5 1.6 1.1 4 2 3 14 10 14
5 5 Preston 9 4 5 1.4 1.0 5 2 2 13 9 17
6 8 Ipswich 8 3 5 1.9 1.1 4 3 1 15 9 15
7 17 Blackburn 7 2 5 1.0 1.9 1 1 5 7 13 4
8 11 Birmingham 7 3 4 2.1 0.9 4 2 1 15 6 14
9 14 Wrexham 8 4 4 1.5 1.5 3 3 2 12 12 12
10 18 QPR 7 3 4 1.1 1.4 2 2 3 8 10 8
11 19 Swansea 8 4 4 1.1 1.6 2 3 3 9 13 9
12 21 Oxford 7 3 4 1.0 1.6 1 3 3 7 11 6
13 23 Norwich 7 3 4 0.7 1.9 0 0 7 5 13 0
14 24 Sheffield Weds 8 4 4 0.4 2.2 0 2 6 3 18 2
15 2 Middlesbrough 7 4 3 1.3 0.6 5 2 0 9 4 17
16 7 Millwall 8 5 3 1.0 1.2 4 1 3 8 10 13
17 10 Charlton 8 5 3 1.2 1.1 4 2 2 10 9 14
18 13 Southampton 7 4 3 1.0 1.0 2 3 2 7 7 9
19 20 Portsmouth 8 5 3 0.8 1.1 2 2 4 6 9 8
20 22 Sheffield United 7 4 3 0.6 1.6 1 1 5 4 11 4
21 3 Stoke 7 5 2 1.6 0.7 4 1 2 11 5 13
22 9 Derby 8 6 2 1.2 1.2 3 3 2 10 10 12
23 15 West Brom 7 5 2 1.0 0.7 3 3 1 7 5 12
24 12 Leicester 7 6 1 1.0 0.9 2 4 1 7 6 10
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 13 Southampton 9 2 7 1.8 1.7 3 3 3 16 15 12
2 1 Coventry 8 2 6 2.6 1.1 5 2 1 21 9 17
3 6 Hull 7 2 5 1.6 1.7 2 2 3 11 12 8
4 12 Leicester 8 3 5 1.4 1.2 3 2 3 11 10 11
5 15 West Brom 9 4 5 1.0 1.6 3 0 6 9 14 9
6 21 Oxford 8 3 5 1.1 1.4 2 1 5 9 11 7
7 24 Sheffield Weds 7 2 5 1.3 1.6 1 3 3 9 11 6
8 2 Middlesbrough 8 4 4 1.2 1.1 3 3 2 10 9 12
9 7 Millwall 7 3 4 1.3 1.4 3 3 1 9 10 12
10 9 Derby 7 3 4 1.4 1.3 3 2 2 10 9 11
11 18 QPR 8 4 4 1.1 1.6 3 2 3 9 13 11
12 22 Sheffield United 8 4 4 0.9 1.9 2 0 6 7 15 6
13 3 Stoke 8 5 3 1.2 0.6 4 2 2 10 5 14
14 4 Bristol City 7 4 3 1.6 1.1 3 3 1 11 8 12
15 8 Ipswich 6 3 3 1.8 1.2 2 2 2 11 7 8
16 11 Birmingham 8 5 3 0.6 1.4 2 1 5 5 11 7
17 17 Blackburn 8 5 3 1.1 0.9 5 0 3 9 7 15
18 19 Swansea 8 5 3 0.8 1.1 2 2 4 6 9 8
19 20 Portsmouth 7 4 3 0.9 1.6 1 3 3 6 11 6
20 23 Norwich 8 5 3 1.1 1.2 2 3 3 9 10 9
21 5 Preston 7 5 2 1.1 1.0 2 3 2 8 7 9
22 10 Charlton 8 6 2 0.9 1.0 2 3 3 7 8 9
23 14 Wrexham 7 5 2 1.1 1.0 2 3 2 8 7 9
24 16 Watford 7 5 2 0.7 1.4 0 3 4 5 10 3

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51