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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: A Kitchen

Luton 2–1 Derby

Full time · half time 0–0 · season 2024/2025

Home ✓ 2.15 fair 2.35
Draw 3.20 fair 3.89
Away 3.50 fair 3.16
Under 2.5 1.62 fair 2.01
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.30 fair 1.99

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Luton Derby
18 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 3
7 Corners 4
12 Fouls 14
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (248 league matches this season so far).
Result Luton to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.85
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22
Home / Draw / Away
LutonDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.2% 1–0 10% 2–1 8.9%

Statistics 2024/2025, before this match

Luton before this match, all matches
1.05points / match
1.10scored / match
1.76conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 21 played · 23:37
Derby before this match, all matches
1.14points / match
1.24scored / match
1.24conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 21 played · 26:26
Luton all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.10 Goals scored 1.24
1.76 Goals conceded 1.24
2.86 Total goals 2.48
11.29 Shots 10.76
3.86 Shots on target 3.38
13.86 Shots faced 11.38
6.57 Corners 5.29
4.95 Corners against 5.76
12.67 Fouls 12.52
2.10 Yellow cards 2.10
0.52 1st-half goals scored 0.52
0.76 1st-half goals conceded 0.57

How often Full Time

29% Wins 29%
19% Draws 29%
52% Losses 43%
95% Over 0.5 goals 95%
76% Over 1.5 goals 81%
57% Over 2.5 goals 43%
29% Over 3.5 goals 14%
19% Over 4.5 goals 10%
10% Over 5.5 goals 5%
57% Both teams scored 57%
24% Clean sheets 29%
24% Failed to score 19%

How often Half Time

33% Wins 29%
24% Draws 38%
43% Losses 33%
81% Over 0.5 goals 76%
38% Over 1.5 goals 29%
10% Over 2.5 goals 5%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Luton all matches
Derby all matches
Luton before this match, at home
1.64points / match
1.45scored / match
1.27conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 11 played · 16:14
Derby before this match, away
0.64points / match
0.82scored / match
1.55conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 11 played · 9:17
Luton at home away Derby

Per match

1.45 Goals scored 0.82
1.27 Goals conceded 1.55
2.73 Total goals 2.36
12.18 Shots 7.64
4.00 Shots on target 2.18
12.73 Shots faced 13.09
7.27 Corners 4.45
4.73 Corners against 6.18
12.45 Fouls 12.45
1.82 Yellow cards 2.18
0.64 1st-half goals scored 0.27
0.45 1st-half goals conceded 0.73

How often Full Time

45% Wins 9%
27% Draws 36%
27% Losses 55%
100% Over 0.5 goals 91%
82% Over 1.5 goals 82%
64% Over 2.5 goals 36%
18% Over 3.5 goals 9%
9% Over 4.5 goals 9%
0% Over 5.5 goals 9%
73% Both teams scored 64%
27% Clean sheets 9%
0% Failed to score 36%

How often Half Time

45% Wins 9%
36% Draws 45%
18% Losses 45%
73% Over 0.5 goals 73%
27% Over 1.5 goals 27%
9% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Luton at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

Luton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
14.12.24 Blackburn – Luton 2–0 (2–0) 2.153.403.30 2.00 1.80
10.12.24 Luton – Stoke 2–1 (1–1) 2.053.303.60 1.93 1.93
07.12.24 Luton – Swansea 1–1 (1–0) 2.253.253.25 2.03 1.83
30.11.24 Norwich – Luton 4–2 (2–1) 2.003.703.40 1.80 2.00
27.11.24 Leeds – Luton 3–0 (2–0) 1.424.208.00 1.80 2.00
23.11.24 Luton – Hull 1–0 (1–0) 1.953.503.75 1.90 1.95
09.11.24 Middlesbrough – Luton 5–1 (2–0) 1.734.004.33 1.73 2.10
06.11.24 Luton – Cardiff 1–0 (0–0) 1.853.504.20 1.83 2.03
01.11.24 Luton – West Brom 1–1 (0–1) 2.703.402.50 2.00 1.85
26.10.24 Coventry – Luton 3–2 (0–2) 2.203.403.20 1.83 2.03

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
13.12.24 Derby – Portsmouth 4–0 (3–0) 2.053.203.75 2.30 1.62
10.12.24 Burnley – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 1.703.505.25 2.63 1.50
07.12.24 Leeds – Derby 2–0 (2–0) 1.364.758.50 1.88 1.98
01.12.24 Derby – Sheffield Weds 1–2 (1–0) 2.403.203.00 2.20 1.67
27.11.24 Derby – Swansea 1–2 (0–2) 2.403.402.80 2.20 1.67
23.11.24 Preston – Derby 1–1 (1–1) 2.203.203.40 2.20 1.67
09.11.24 Derby – Plymouth 1–1 (1–1) 1.653.905.00 1.80 2.00
06.11.24 Coventry – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 1.753.704.50 1.90 1.95
02.11.24 Stoke – Derby 2–1 (1–0) 2.203.403.25 2.03 1.83
26.10.24 Derby – Hull 1–1 (0–0) 2.303.303.10 1.90 1.95

Luton at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.12.24 Luton – Stoke 2–1 (1–1) 2.053.303.60 1.93 1.93
07.12.24 Luton – Swansea 1–1 (1–0) 2.253.253.25 2.03 1.83
23.11.24 Luton – Hull 1–0 (1–0) 1.953.503.75 1.90 1.95
06.11.24 Luton – Cardiff 1–0 (0–0) 1.853.504.20 1.83 2.03
01.11.24 Luton – West Brom 1–1 (0–1) 2.703.402.50 2.00 1.85
23.10.24 Luton – Sunderland 1–2 (0–0) 2.553.302.75 1.98 1.88
19.10.24 Luton – Watford 3–0 (1–0) 2.003.204.00 1.73 2.10
01.10.24 Luton – Oxford 2–2 (2–1) 1.673.904.50 1.88 1.98
21.09.24 Luton – Sheffield Weds 2–1 (0–0) 1.903.504.00 1.85 2.00
30.08.24 Luton – QPR 1–2 (1–0) 1.913.503.70 1.75 2.05

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.12.24 Burnley – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 1.703.505.25 2.63 1.50
07.12.24 Leeds – Derby 2–0 (2–0) 1.364.758.50 1.88 1.98
23.11.24 Preston – Derby 1–1 (1–1) 2.203.203.40 2.20 1.67
06.11.24 Coventry – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 1.753.704.50 1.90 1.95
02.11.24 Stoke – Derby 2–1 (1–0) 2.203.403.25 2.03 1.83
22.10.24 Oxford – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 2.553.252.75 2.10 1.73
19.10.24 Millwall – Derby 1–1 (0–0) 1.953.204.10 2.30 1.62
01.10.24 Sunderland – Derby 2–0 (1–0) 1.673.904.75 2.03 1.83
21.09.24 Sheffield United – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 1.574.105.50 1.80 2.00
24.08.24 Watford – Derby 2–1 (1–1) 1.853.504.10 1.88 1.98

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Luton winsDrawsDerby wins
2matches
2.50goals / match
50%over 2.5
50%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
26.02.22E1 Luton – Derby 1–0 (0–0) 1.833.504.50 2.20 1.66
19.10.21E1 Derby – Luton 2–2 (1–0) 3.303.202.30 2.50 1.53

England Championship table 2024/2025, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield United 21 14 5 2 30 11 +19 47
2 Leeds 21 12 6 3 37 15 +22 42
3 Burnley 21 11 8 2 26 8 +18 41
4 Sunderland 21 11 7 3 32 17 +15 40
5 Blackburn 20 11 4 5 25 17 +8 37
6 Middlesbrough 21 10 4 7 35 25 +10 34
7 Watford 20 10 4 6 29 26 +3 34
8 West Brom 21 7 11 3 24 16 +8 32
9 Sheffield Weds 21 8 5 8 26 30 -4 29
10 Swansea 21 7 6 8 23 22 +1 27
11 Bristol City 21 6 9 6 26 26 0 27
12 Norwich 21 6 8 7 36 32 +4 26
13 Millwall 20 6 7 7 20 18 +2 25
14 Derby 21 6 6 9 26 26 0 24
15 Coventry 21 6 6 9 27 30 -3 24
16 Preston 21 4 11 6 21 27 -6 23
17 Stoke 21 5 7 9 23 28 -5 22
18 QPR 21 4 10 7 21 27 -6 22
19 Luton 21 6 4 11 23 37 -14 22
20 Oxford 20 4 6 10 21 33 -12 18
21 Cardiff 20 4 6 10 19 32 -13 18
22 Portsmouth 19 3 8 8 21 34 -13 17
23 Plymouth 20 4 5 11 19 42 -23 17
24 Hull 21 3 7 11 19 30 -11 16
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Leeds 11 9 1 1 25 6 +19 28
2 Sheffield United 10 9 1 0 16 2 +14 28
3 Watford 10 8 2 0 15 5 +10 26
4 Sunderland 10 6 4 0 17 6 +11 22
5 Blackburn 10 7 1 2 15 7 +8 22
6 Burnley 10 5 5 0 13 3 +10 20
7 Middlesbrough 11 6 2 3 16 11 +5 20
8 Luton 11 5 3 3 16 14 +2 18
9 Derby 10 5 2 3 17 9 +8 17
10 Millwall 11 5 2 4 13 9 +4 17
11 Norwich 10 4 4 2 26 15 +11 16
12 Oxford 11 4 4 3 14 15 -1 16
13 Plymouth 9 4 3 2 16 13 +3 15
14 West Brom 10 3 6 1 8 5 +3 15
15 Preston 11 3 6 2 11 10 +1 15
16 Bristol City 10 3 5 2 14 10 +4 14
17 Coventry 10 4 2 4 18 16 +2 14
18 Stoke 11 3 5 3 17 15 +2 14
19 Swansea 10 3 4 3 14 12 +2 13
20 Sheffield Weds 11 3 4 4 14 16 -2 13
21 Cardiff 10 4 0 6 11 14 -3 12
22 QPR 11 2 5 4 13 16 -3 11
23 Portsmouth 9 2 4 3 9 10 -1 10
24 Hull 11 1 5 5 9 13 -4 8
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Burnley 11 6 3 2 13 5 +8 21
2 Sheffield United 11 5 4 2 14 9 +5 19
3 Sunderland 11 5 3 3 15 11 +4 18
4 West Brom 11 4 5 2 16 11 +5 17
5 Sheffield Weds 10 5 1 4 12 14 -2 16
6 Blackburn 10 4 3 3 10 10 0 15
7 Middlesbrough 10 4 2 4 19 14 +5 14
8 Leeds 10 3 5 2 12 9 +3 14
9 Swansea 11 4 2 5 9 10 -1 14
10 Bristol City 11 3 4 4 12 16 -4 13
11 QPR 10 2 5 3 8 11 -3 11
12 Coventry 11 2 4 5 9 14 -5 10
13 Norwich 11 2 4 5 10 17 -7 10
14 Millwall 9 1 5 3 7 9 -2 8
15 Watford 10 2 2 6 14 21 -7 8
16 Hull 10 2 2 6 10 17 -7 8
17 Preston 10 1 5 4 10 17 -7 8
18 Stoke 10 2 2 6 6 13 -7 8
19 Derby 11 1 4 6 9 17 -8 7
20 Portsmouth 10 1 4 5 12 24 -12 7
21 Cardiff 10 0 6 4 8 18 -10 6
22 Luton 10 1 1 8 7 23 -16 4
23 Oxford 9 0 2 7 7 18 -11 2
24 Plymouth 11 0 2 9 3 29 -26 2

Luton   Derby

Under / Over goals 2024/2025, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 7 Watford 20 8 12 1.4 1.3 10 4 6 29 26 34
2 12 Norwich 21 9 12 1.7 1.5 6 8 7 36 32 26
3 15 Coventry 21 9 12 1.3 1.4 6 6 9 27 30 24
4 19 Luton 21 9 12 1.1 1.8 6 4 11 23 37 22
5 22 Portsmouth 19 7 12 1.1 1.8 3 8 8 21 34 17
6 23 Plymouth 20 9 11 0.9 2.1 4 5 11 19 42 17
7 9 Sheffield Weds 21 11 10 1.2 1.4 8 5 8 26 30 29
8 4 Sunderland 21 12 9 1.5 0.8 11 7 3 32 17 40
9 6 Middlesbrough 21 12 9 1.7 1.2 10 4 7 35 25 34
10 11 Bristol City 21 12 9 1.2 1.2 6 9 6 26 26 27
11 14 Derby 21 12 9 1.2 1.2 6 6 9 26 26 24
12 17 Stoke 21 12 9 1.1 1.3 5 7 9 23 28 22
13 20 Oxford 20 11 9 1.1 1.6 4 6 10 21 33 18
14 2 Leeds 21 13 8 1.8 0.7 12 6 3 37 15 42
15 8 West Brom 21 13 8 1.1 0.8 7 11 3 24 16 32
16 10 Swansea 21 13 8 1.1 1.0 7 6 8 23 22 27
17 16 Preston 21 13 8 1.0 1.3 4 11 6 21 27 23
18 5 Blackburn 20 13 7 1.2 0.8 11 4 5 25 17 37
19 18 QPR 21 14 7 1.0 1.3 4 10 7 21 27 22
20 21 Cardiff 20 13 7 0.9 1.6 4 6 10 19 32 18
21 24 Hull 21 14 7 0.9 1.4 3 7 11 19 30 16
22 1 Sheffield United 21 16 5 1.4 0.5 14 5 2 30 11 47
23 3 Burnley 21 17 4 1.2 0.4 11 8 2 26 8 41
24 13 Millwall 20 16 4 1.0 0.9 6 7 7 20 18 25
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 15 Coventry 10 1 9 1.8 1.6 4 2 4 18 16 14
2 12 Norwich 10 3 7 2.6 1.5 4 4 2 26 15 16
3 19 Luton 11 4 7 1.5 1.3 5 3 3 16 14 18
4 2 Leeds 11 5 6 2.3 0.5 9 1 1 25 6 28
5 17 Stoke 11 5 6 1.5 1.4 3 5 3 17 15 14
6 23 Plymouth 9 3 6 1.8 1.4 4 3 2 16 13 15
7 7 Watford 10 5 5 1.5 0.5 8 2 0 15 5 26
8 14 Derby 10 5 5 1.7 0.9 5 2 3 17 9 17
9 18 QPR 11 6 5 1.2 1.5 2 5 4 13 16 11
10 22 Portsmouth 9 4 5 1.0 1.1 2 4 3 9 10 10
11 4 Sunderland 10 6 4 1.7 0.6 6 4 0 17 6 22
12 6 Middlesbrough 11 7 4 1.5 1.0 6 2 3 16 11 20
13 10 Swansea 10 6 4 1.4 1.2 3 4 3 14 12 13
14 11 Bristol City 10 6 4 1.4 1.0 3 5 2 14 10 14
15 20 Oxford 11 7 4 1.3 1.4 4 4 3 14 15 16
16 5 Blackburn 10 7 3 1.5 0.7 7 1 2 15 7 22
17 9 Sheffield Weds 11 8 3 1.3 1.5 3 4 4 14 16 13
18 13 Millwall 11 8 3 1.2 0.8 5 2 4 13 9 17
19 16 Preston 11 8 3 1.0 0.9 3 6 2 11 10 15
20 21 Cardiff 10 7 3 1.1 1.4 4 0 6 11 14 12
21 1 Sheffield United 10 8 2 1.6 0.2 9 1 0 16 2 28
22 3 Burnley 10 8 2 1.3 0.3 5 5 0 13 3 20
23 8 West Brom 10 8 2 0.8 0.5 3 6 1 8 5 15
24 24 Hull 11 9 2 0.8 1.2 1 5 5 9 13 8
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 7 Watford 10 3 7 1.4 2.1 2 2 6 14 21 8
2 9 Sheffield Weds 10 3 7 1.2 1.4 5 1 4 12 14 16
3 22 Portsmouth 10 3 7 1.2 2.4 1 4 5 12 24 7
4 8 West Brom 11 5 6 1.5 1.0 4 5 2 16 11 17
5 4 Sunderland 11 6 5 1.4 1.0 5 3 3 15 11 18
6 6 Middlesbrough 10 5 5 1.9 1.4 4 2 4 19 14 14
7 11 Bristol City 11 6 5 1.1 1.5 3 4 4 12 16 13
8 12 Norwich 11 6 5 0.9 1.5 2 4 5 10 17 10
9 16 Preston 10 5 5 1.0 1.7 1 5 4 10 17 8
10 19 Luton 10 5 5 0.7 2.3 1 1 8 7 23 4
11 20 Oxford 9 4 5 0.8 2.0 0 2 7 7 18 2
12 23 Plymouth 11 6 5 0.3 2.6 0 2 9 3 29 2
13 24 Hull 10 5 5 1.0 1.7 2 2 6 10 17 8
14 5 Blackburn 10 6 4 1.0 1.0 4 3 3 10 10 15
15 10 Swansea 11 7 4 0.8 0.9 4 2 5 9 10 14
16 14 Derby 11 7 4 0.8 1.5 1 4 6 9 17 7
17 21 Cardiff 10 6 4 0.8 1.8 0 6 4 8 18 6
18 1 Sheffield United 11 8 3 1.3 0.8 5 4 2 14 9 19
19 15 Coventry 11 8 3 0.8 1.3 2 4 5 9 14 10
20 17 Stoke 10 7 3 0.6 1.3 2 2 6 6 13 8
21 2 Leeds 10 8 2 1.2 0.9 3 5 2 12 9 14
22 3 Burnley 11 9 2 1.2 0.5 6 3 2 13 5 21
23 18 QPR 10 8 2 0.8 1.1 2 5 3 8 11 11
24 13 Millwall 9 8 1 0.8 1.0 1 5 3 7 9 8

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51