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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: B Toner

Derby 1–2 Swansea

Full time · half time 0–2 · season 2024/2025

Home 2.40 fair 2.17
Draw 3.40 fair 3.57
Away ✓ 2.80 fair 3.87
Under 2.5 1.67 fair 1.63
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.20 fair 2.58

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Swansea
18 Shots 3
7 Shots on target 2
6 Corners 2
16 Fouls 14
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (201 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score No fair 1.79
Expected goals 1.32 – 0.92
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawSwansea
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–0 14.1% 1–1 12.9% 0–0 10.6%

Statistics 2024/2025, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
1.25points / match
1.25scored / match
1.25conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 16 played · 20:20
Swansea before this match, all matches
1.19points / match
0.88scored / match
0.88conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 16 played · 14:14
Derby all matches all matches Swansea

Per match

1.25 Goals scored 0.88
1.25 Goals conceded 0.88
2.50 Total goals 1.75
10.56 Shots 10.75
3.19 Shots on target 3.31
11.94 Shots faced 10.88
5.56 Corners 5.19
5.94 Corners against 5.44
12.13 Fouls 9.81
2.13 Yellow cards 1.94
0.44 1st-half goals scored 0.63
0.50 1st-half goals conceded 0.38

How often Full Time

31% Wins 31%
31% Draws 25%
38% Losses 44%
100% Over 0.5 goals 88%
81% Over 1.5 goals 38%
38% Over 2.5 goals 25%
13% Over 3.5 goals 6%
13% Over 4.5 goals 6%
6% Over 5.5 goals 6%
63% Both teams scored 31%
25% Clean sheets 31%
13% Failed to score 50%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 50%
44% Draws 25%
31% Losses 25%
75% Over 0.5 goals 75%
19% Over 1.5 goals 13%
0% Over 2.5 goals 13%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Swansea all matches
Derby before this match, at home
2.00points / match
1.57scored / match
0.71conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 7 played · 11:5
Swansea before this match, away
0.88points / match
0.50scored / match
0.88conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 8 played · 4:7
Derby at home away Swansea

Per match

1.57 Goals scored 0.50
0.71 Goals conceded 0.88
2.29 Total goals 1.38
13.43 Shots 9.63
4.14 Shots on target 2.38
11.29 Shots faced 12.25
6.29 Corners 5.88
6.14 Corners against 5.13
11.71 Fouls 8.38
1.71 Yellow cards 2.50
0.57 1st-half goals scored 0.38
0.29 1st-half goals conceded 0.63

How often Full Time

57% Wins 25%
29% Draws 13%
14% Losses 63%
100% Over 0.5 goals 88%
71% Over 1.5 goals 25%
29% Over 2.5 goals 25%
14% Over 3.5 goals 0%
14% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
43% Both teams scored 25%
57% Clean sheets 13%
0% Failed to score 75%

How often Half Time

43% Wins 25%
43% Draws 25%
14% Losses 50%
71% Over 0.5 goals 75%
14% Over 1.5 goals 13%
0% Over 2.5 goals 13%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Swansea away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
23.11.24 Preston – Derby 1–1 (1–1) 2.203.203.40 2.20 1.67
09.11.24 Derby – Plymouth 1–1 (1–1) 1.653.905.00 1.80 2.00
06.11.24 Coventry – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 1.753.704.50 1.90 1.95
02.11.24 Stoke – Derby 2–1 (1–0) 2.203.403.25 2.03 1.83
26.10.24 Derby – Hull 1–1 (0–0) 2.303.303.10 1.90 1.95
22.10.24 Oxford – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 2.553.252.75 2.10 1.73
19.10.24 Millwall – Derby 1–1 (0–0) 1.953.204.10 2.30 1.62
05.10.24 Derby – QPR 2–0 (0–0) 2.203.503.10 2.10 1.73
01.10.24 Sunderland – Derby 2–0 (1–0) 1.673.904.75 2.03 1.83
28.09.24 Derby – Norwich 2–3 (0–1) 2.633.602.50 1.98 1.88

Swansea all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
24.11.24 Swansea – Leeds 3–4 (2–1) 4.103.901.80 2.10 1.73
10.11.24 Burnley – Swansea 1–0 (0–0) 1.903.503.90 2.20 1.67
05.11.24 Swansea – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 1.953.403.90 1.83 2.03
02.11.24 Oxford – Swansea 1–2 (0–1) 2.753.202.70 2.20 1.67
26.10.24 Swansea – Millwall 0–1 (0–0) 2.453.252.88 2.20 1.67
22.10.24 Sheffield Weds – Swansea 0–0 (0–0) 2.103.403.40 2.03 1.83
19.10.24 Blackburn – Swansea 1–0 (1–0) 2.103.403.40 1.93 1.93
05.10.24 Swansea – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 2.203.503.10 1.98 1.88
02.10.24 Sheffield United – Swansea 1–0 (1–0) 1.733.754.50 1.85 2.00
29.09.24 Swansea – Bristol City 1–1 (1–0) 2.303.702.80 1.90 1.95

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.11.24 Derby – Plymouth 1–1 (1–1) 1.653.905.00 1.80 2.00
26.10.24 Derby – Hull 1–1 (0–0) 2.303.303.10 1.90 1.95
05.10.24 Derby – QPR 2–0 (0–0) 2.203.503.10 2.10 1.73
28.09.24 Derby – Norwich 2–3 (0–1) 2.633.602.50 1.98 1.88
14.09.24 Derby – Cardiff 1–0 (1–0) 2.353.403.00 2.10 1.73
31.08.24 Derby – Bristol City 3–0 (1–0) 2.903.252.40 2.05 1.80
17.08.24 Derby – Middlesbrough 1–0 (1–0) 3.503.502.00 1.85 2.00
27.04.24E2 Derby – Carlisle 2–0 (1–0) 1.226.5013.00 1.54 2.35
13.04.24E2 Derby – Leyton Orient 3–0 (2–0) 1.534.006.50 2.00 1.85
29.03.24E2 Derby – Blackpool 1–0 (1–0) 1.853.604.00 2.05 1.75

Swansea away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.11.24 Burnley – Swansea 1–0 (0–0) 1.903.503.90 2.20 1.67
02.11.24 Oxford – Swansea 1–2 (0–1) 2.753.202.70 2.20 1.67
22.10.24 Sheffield Weds – Swansea 0–0 (0–0) 2.103.403.40 2.03 1.83
19.10.24 Blackburn – Swansea 1–0 (1–0) 2.103.403.40 1.93 1.93
02.10.24 Sheffield United – Swansea 1–0 (1–0) 1.733.754.50 1.85 2.00
21.09.24 Coventry – Swansea 1–2 (1–2) 1.703.605.00 1.73 2.10
31.08.24 West Brom – Swansea 1–0 (1–0) 1.803.504.50 1.98 1.88
10.08.24 Middlesbrough – Swansea 1–0 (1–0) 1.803.504.33 1.73 2.08
27.04.24 Norwich – Swansea 2–2 (2–1) 1.674.005.00 1.67 2.20
20.04.24 Huddersfield – Swansea 0–4 (0–0) 2.103.603.40 1.93 1.93

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Derby winsDrawsSwansea wins
2matches
1.50goals / match
50%over 2.5
50%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.04.22E1 Swansea – Derby 2–1 (2–1) 2.103.303.75 2.20 1.66
02.10.21E1 Derby – Swansea 0–0 (0–0) 2.453.103.10 2.37 1.57

England Championship table 2024/2025, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield United 17 11 4 2 24 9 +15 37
2 Leeds 17 10 5 2 31 12 +19 35
3 Burnley 17 9 6 2 21 6 +15 33
4 Sunderland 17 9 6 2 26 12 +14 33
5 Watford 17 9 2 6 26 24 +2 29
6 Middlesbrough 17 8 3 6 29 20 +9 27
7 West Brom 17 6 9 2 18 11 +7 27
8 Blackburn 16 7 4 5 20 17 +3 25
9 Millwall 16 6 6 4 19 14 +5 24
10 Norwich 17 5 7 5 31 25 +6 22
11 Bristol City 17 5 7 5 20 21 -1 22
12 Sheffield Weds 17 6 4 7 20 26 -6 22
13 Stoke 17 5 6 6 19 20 -1 21
14 Derby 16 5 5 6 20 20 0 20
15 Swansea 16 5 4 7 14 14 0 19
16 Luton 17 5 3 9 18 29 -11 18
17 Coventry 17 4 5 8 22 25 -3 17
18 Oxford 17 4 5 8 19 27 -8 17
19 Preston 17 3 8 6 16 24 -8 17
20 Plymouth 17 4 5 8 18 34 -16 17
21 Cardiff 17 4 4 9 15 26 -11 16
22 Hull 17 3 6 8 16 23 -7 15
23 QPR 17 2 8 7 15 26 -11 14
24 Portsmouth 15 2 6 7 16 28 -12 12
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Leeds 9 7 1 1 20 5 +15 22
2 Sheffield United 8 7 1 0 13 2 +11 22
3 Watford 8 7 1 0 13 4 +9 22
4 Sunderland 8 5 3 0 14 4 +10 18
5 Burnley 8 5 3 0 12 2 +10 18
6 Millwall 9 5 2 2 13 7 +6 17
7 Blackburn 8 5 1 2 12 7 +5 16
8 Plymouth 8 4 3 1 15 11 +4 15
9 Oxford 9 4 3 2 12 11 +1 15
10 Derby 7 4 2 1 11 5 +6 14
11 Middlesbrough 9 4 2 3 12 10 +2 14
12 Luton 9 4 2 3 13 12 +1 14
13 Norwich 8 3 4 1 21 11 +10 13
14 Stoke 9 3 4 2 15 11 +4 13
15 Preston 9 3 4 2 9 8 +1 13
16 Swansea 8 3 3 2 10 7 +3 12
17 Sheffield Weds 9 3 3 3 13 14 -1 12
18 Cardiff 9 4 0 5 11 12 -1 12
19 West Brom 8 2 5 1 4 3 +1 11
20 Coventry 8 3 1 4 14 13 +1 10
21 Bristol City 8 2 4 2 9 9 0 10
22 Hull 9 1 4 4 8 11 -3 7
23 Portsmouth 7 1 3 3 6 10 -4 6
24 QPR 9 0 5 4 8 16 -8 5
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 West Brom 9 4 4 1 14 8 +6 16
2 Burnley 9 4 3 2 9 4 +5 15
3 Sunderland 9 4 3 2 12 8 +4 15
4 Sheffield United 9 4 3 2 11 7 +4 15
5 Middlesbrough 8 4 1 3 17 10 +7 13
6 Leeds 8 3 4 1 11 7 +4 13
7 Bristol City 9 3 3 3 11 12 -1 12
8 Sheffield Weds 8 3 1 4 7 12 -5 10
9 Blackburn 8 2 3 3 8 10 -2 9
10 QPR 8 2 3 3 7 10 -3 9
11 Norwich 9 2 3 4 10 14 -4 9
12 Hull 8 2 2 4 8 12 -4 8
13 Stoke 8 2 2 4 4 9 -5 8
14 Millwall 7 1 4 2 6 7 -1 7
15 Swansea 8 2 1 5 4 7 -3 7
16 Coventry 9 1 4 4 8 12 -4 7
17 Watford 9 2 1 6 13 20 -7 7
18 Derby 9 1 3 5 9 15 -6 6
19 Portsmouth 8 1 3 4 10 18 -8 6
20 Preston 8 0 4 4 7 16 -9 4
21 Cardiff 8 0 4 4 4 14 -10 4
22 Luton 8 1 1 6 5 17 -12 4
23 Oxford 8 0 2 6 7 16 -9 2
24 Plymouth 9 0 2 7 3 23 -20 2

Derby   Swansea

Under / Over goals 2024/2025, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Watford 17 6 11 1.5 1.4 9 2 6 26 24 29
2 16 Luton 17 7 10 1.1 1.7 5 3 9 18 29 18
3 17 Coventry 17 7 10 1.3 1.5 4 5 8 22 25 17
4 10 Norwich 17 8 9 1.8 1.5 5 7 5 31 25 22
5 20 Plymouth 17 8 9 1.1 2.0 4 5 8 18 34 17
6 24 Portsmouth 15 6 9 1.1 1.9 2 6 7 16 28 12
7 12 Sheffield Weds 17 9 8 1.2 1.5 6 4 7 20 26 22
8 18 Oxford 17 9 8 1.1 1.6 4 5 8 19 27 17
9 19 Preston 17 9 8 0.9 1.4 3 8 6 16 24 17
10 2 Leeds 17 10 7 1.8 0.7 10 5 2 31 12 35
11 4 Sunderland 17 10 7 1.5 0.7 9 6 2 26 12 33
12 6 Middlesbrough 17 10 7 1.7 1.2 8 3 6 29 20 27
13 8 Blackburn 16 9 7 1.2 1.1 7 4 5 20 17 25
14 11 Bristol City 17 10 7 1.2 1.2 5 7 5 20 21 22
15 7 West Brom 17 11 6 1.1 0.6 6 9 2 18 11 27
16 13 Stoke 17 11 6 1.1 1.2 5 6 6 19 20 21
17 14 Derby 16 10 6 1.2 1.2 5 5 6 20 20 20
18 23 QPR 17 11 6 0.9 1.5 2 8 7 15 26 14
19 21 Cardiff 17 12 5 0.9 1.5 4 4 9 15 26 16
20 22 Hull 17 12 5 0.9 1.4 3 6 8 16 23 15
21 1 Sheffield United 17 13 4 1.4 0.5 11 4 2 24 9 37
22 9 Millwall 16 12 4 1.2 0.9 6 6 4 19 14 24
23 15 Swansea 16 12 4 0.9 0.9 5 4 7 14 14 19
24 3 Burnley 17 14 3 1.2 0.4 9 6 2 21 6 33
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 17 Coventry 8 1 7 1.8 1.6 3 1 4 14 13 10
2 16 Luton 9 3 6 1.4 1.3 4 2 3 13 12 14
3 2 Leeds 9 4 5 2.2 0.6 7 1 1 20 5 22
4 10 Norwich 8 3 5 2.6 1.4 3 4 1 21 11 13
5 13 Stoke 9 4 5 1.7 1.2 3 4 2 15 11 13
6 20 Plymouth 8 3 5 1.9 1.4 4 3 1 15 11 15
7 5 Watford 8 4 4 1.6 0.5 7 1 0 13 4 22
8 23 QPR 9 5 4 0.9 1.8 0 5 4 8 16 5
9 24 Portsmouth 7 3 4 0.9 1.4 1 3 3 6 10 6
10 4 Sunderland 8 5 3 1.8 0.5 5 3 0 14 4 18
11 6 Middlesbrough 9 6 3 1.3 1.1 4 2 3 12 10 14
12 8 Blackburn 8 5 3 1.5 0.9 5 1 2 12 7 16
13 9 Millwall 9 6 3 1.4 0.8 5 2 2 13 7 17
14 11 Bristol City 8 5 3 1.1 1.1 2 4 2 9 9 10
15 12 Sheffield Weds 9 6 3 1.4 1.6 3 3 3 13 14 12
16 18 Oxford 9 6 3 1.3 1.2 4 3 2 12 11 15
17 19 Preston 9 6 3 1.0 0.9 3 4 2 9 8 13
18 21 Cardiff 9 6 3 1.2 1.3 4 0 5 11 12 12
19 1 Sheffield United 8 6 2 1.6 0.2 7 1 0 13 2 22
20 3 Burnley 8 6 2 1.5 0.2 5 3 0 12 2 18
21 14 Derby 7 5 2 1.6 0.7 4 2 1 11 5 14
22 15 Swansea 8 6 2 1.2 0.9 3 3 2 10 7 12
23 22 Hull 9 7 2 0.9 1.2 1 4 4 8 11 7
24 7 West Brom 8 7 1 0.5 0.4 2 5 1 4 3 11
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Watford 9 2 7 1.4 2.2 2 1 6 13 20 7
2 7 West Brom 9 4 5 1.6 0.9 4 4 1 14 8 16
3 12 Sheffield Weds 8 3 5 0.9 1.5 3 1 4 7 12 10
4 18 Oxford 8 3 5 0.9 2.0 0 2 6 7 16 2
5 19 Preston 8 3 5 0.9 2.0 0 4 4 7 16 4
6 24 Portsmouth 8 3 5 1.2 2.2 1 3 4 10 18 6
7 4 Sunderland 9 5 4 1.3 0.9 4 3 2 12 8 15
8 6 Middlesbrough 8 4 4 2.1 1.2 4 1 3 17 10 13
9 8 Blackburn 8 4 4 1.0 1.2 2 3 3 8 10 9
10 10 Norwich 9 5 4 1.1 1.6 2 3 4 10 14 9
11 11 Bristol City 9 5 4 1.2 1.3 3 3 3 11 12 12
12 14 Derby 9 5 4 1.0 1.7 1 3 5 9 15 6
13 16 Luton 8 4 4 0.6 2.1 1 1 6 5 17 4
14 20 Plymouth 9 5 4 0.3 2.6 0 2 7 3 23 2
15 17 Coventry 9 6 3 0.9 1.3 1 4 4 8 12 7
16 22 Hull 8 5 3 1.0 1.5 2 2 4 8 12 8
17 1 Sheffield United 9 7 2 1.2 0.8 4 3 2 11 7 15
18 2 Leeds 8 6 2 1.4 0.9 3 4 1 11 7 13
19 15 Swansea 8 6 2 0.5 0.9 2 1 5 4 7 7
20 21 Cardiff 8 6 2 0.5 1.8 0 4 4 4 14 4
21 23 QPR 8 6 2 0.9 1.2 2 3 3 7 10 9
22 3 Burnley 9 8 1 1.0 0.4 4 3 2 9 4 15
23 9 Millwall 7 6 1 0.9 1.0 1 4 2 6 7 7
24 13 Stoke 8 7 1 0.5 1.1 2 2 4 4 9 8

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 1 Nov 2026, 19:06