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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: A Woolmer

Luton 1–0 Derby

Full time · half time 0–0 · season 2021/2022

Home ✓ 1.83 fair 2.00
Draw 3.50 fair 3.83
Away 4.50 fair 4.16
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.66 fair 1.80
Over 2.5 2.20 fair 2.26

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Luton Derby
8 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 1
7 Corners 4
13 Fouls 16
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (392 league matches this season so far).
Result Luton to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score No fair 1.91
Expected goals 1.50 – 0.95
Home / Draw / Away
LutonDrawDerby
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–0 12.9% 1–1 12.3% 2–0 9.7%

Statistics 2021/2022, before this match

Luton before this match, all matches
1.59points / match
1.41scored / match
1.16conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 32 played · 45:37
Derby before this match, all matches
1.27points / match
1.03scored / match
1.12conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 33 played · 34:37
Luton all matches all matches Derby

Per match

1.41 Goals scored 1.03
1.16 Goals conceded 1.12
2.56 Total goals 2.15
10.84 Shots 9.88
3.47 Shots on target 3.12
10.78 Shots faced 12.21
5.03 Corners 4.39
5.13 Corners against 4.58
11.97 Fouls 10.03
1.81 Yellow cards 2.03
0.53 1st-half goals scored 0.42
0.56 1st-half goals conceded 0.52

How often Full Time

44% Wins 30%
28% Draws 36%
28% Losses 33%
88% Over 0.5 goals 85%
75% Over 1.5 goals 64%
50% Over 2.5 goals 42%
25% Over 3.5 goals 18%
16% Over 4.5 goals 6%
3% Over 5.5 goals 0%
41% Both teams scored 55%
41% Clean sheets 33%
31% Failed to score 27%

How often Half Time

31% Wins 21%
31% Draws 52%
38% Losses 27%
72% Over 0.5 goals 58%
28% Over 1.5 goals 27%
6% Over 2.5 goals 6%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Luton all matches
Derby all matches
Luton before this match, at home
1.81points / match
1.63scored / match
1.06conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 16 played · 26:17
Derby before this match, away
0.75points / match
0.69scored / match
1.31conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 16 played · 11:21
Luton at home away Derby

Per match

1.63 Goals scored 0.69
1.06 Goals conceded 1.31
2.69 Total goals 2.00
11.00 Shots 8.88
3.56 Shots on target 2.69
10.00 Shots faced 12.88
5.31 Corners 4.44
4.81 Corners against 4.81
11.88 Fouls 9.63
1.38 Yellow cards 1.94
0.81 1st-half goals scored 0.25
0.44 1st-half goals conceded 0.56

How often Full Time

50% Wins 13%
31% Draws 38%
19% Losses 50%
81% Over 0.5 goals 81%
69% Over 1.5 goals 63%
56% Over 2.5 goals 38%
31% Over 3.5 goals 13%
25% Over 4.5 goals 6%
6% Over 5.5 goals 0%
44% Both teams scored 50%
44% Clean sheets 25%
31% Failed to score 44%

How often Half Time

38% Wins 6%
31% Draws 63%
31% Losses 31%
75% Over 0.5 goals 50%
31% Over 1.5 goals 19%
13% Over 2.5 goals 6%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Luton at home
Derby away

Last 10 matches before this match

Luton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
23.02.22 Stoke – Luton 1–2 (0–0) 2.103.303.60 2.20 1.66
19.02.22 Luton – West Brom 2–0 (0–0) 3.103.102.45 2.20 1.66
12.02.22 Birmingham – Luton 3–0 (1–0) 2.903.302.45 2.20 1.66
08.02.22 Luton – Barnsley 2–1 (1–1) 1.603.756.50 2.10 1.72
01.02.22 Swansea – Luton 0–1 (0–0) 2.253.203.40 2.37 1.57
29.01.22 Luton – Blackburn 0–0 (0–0) 2.403.203.10 2.20 1.66
25.01.22 Luton – Bristol City 2–1 (1–0) 1.753.404.75 1.95 1.90
22.01.22 Sheffield United – Luton 2–0 (0–0) 1.853.504.50 2.20 1.66
19.01.22 Reading – Luton 0–2 (0–1) 3.603.602.00 2.02 1.83
15.01.22 Luton – Bournemouth 3–2 (2–0) 2.803.402.45 2.02 1.83

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
23.02.22 Derby – Millwall 1–2 (0–2) 2.623.102.87 2.62 1.50
19.02.22 Derby – Peterboro 1–0 (0–0) 1.833.604.33 2.10 1.72
12.02.22 Middlesbrough – Derby 4–1 (3–1) 1.613.805.75 2.10 1.72
08.02.22 Derby – Hull 3–1 (2–0) 2.203.103.60 2.37 1.57
02.02.22 Huddersfield – Derby 2–0 (0–0) 2.053.303.80 2.30 1.61
30.01.22 Derby – Birmingham 2–2 (0–1) 2.303.103.40 2.50 1.53
22.01.22 Nott'm Forest – Derby 2–1 (0–0) 1.953.204.50 2.37 1.57
15.01.22 Derby – Sheffield United 2–0 (0–0) 3.503.202.20 2.30 1.61
03.01.22 Reading – Derby 2–2 (1–0) 2.203.403.25 2.30 1.61
30.12.21 Stoke – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 1.663.755.50 2.20 1.66

Luton at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
19.02.22 Luton – West Brom 2–0 (0–0) 3.103.102.45 2.20 1.66
08.02.22 Luton – Barnsley 2–1 (1–1) 1.603.756.50 2.10 1.72
29.01.22 Luton – Blackburn 0–0 (0–0) 2.403.203.10 2.20 1.66
25.01.22 Luton – Bristol City 2–1 (1–0) 1.753.404.75 1.95 1.90
15.01.22 Luton – Bournemouth 3–2 (2–0) 2.803.402.45 2.02 1.83
11.12.21 Luton – Fulham 1–1 (0–1) 3.803.801.85 1.72 2.10
27.11.21 Luton – Cardiff 1–2 (0–1) 1.903.504.00 2.05 1.80
06.11.21 Luton – Stoke 0–1 (0–1) 2.403.203.10 2.20 1.66
02.11.21 Luton – Middlesbrough 3–1 (0–1) 2.253.303.25 2.00 1.80
23.10.21 Luton – Hull 1–0 (1–0) 1.803.604.50 2.10 1.72

Derby away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
12.02.22 Middlesbrough – Derby 4–1 (3–1) 1.613.805.75 2.10 1.72
02.02.22 Huddersfield – Derby 2–0 (0–0) 2.053.303.80 2.30 1.61
22.01.22 Nott'm Forest – Derby 2–1 (0–0) 1.953.204.50 2.37 1.57
03.01.22 Reading – Derby 2–2 (1–0) 2.203.403.25 2.30 1.61
30.12.21 Stoke – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 1.663.755.50 2.20 1.66
04.12.21 Bristol City – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.503.202.90 2.20 1.66
24.11.21 Fulham – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 1.285.5010.00 1.72 2.10
06.11.21 Millwall – Derby 1–1 (1–1) 1.833.404.75 2.37 1.57
03.11.21 Barnsley – Derby 2–1 (1–1) 2.203.203.50 2.30 1.61
23.10.21 Coventry – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 1.853.404.33 2.10 1.72

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Luton winsDrawsDerby wins
1matches
4.00goals / match
100%over 2.5
100%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
19.10.21E1 Derby – Luton 2–2 (1–0) 3.303.202.30 2.50 1.53

England Championship table 2021/2022, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Fulham 32 20 7 5 81 29 +52 67
2 Bournemouth 30 17 7 6 49 26 +23 58
3 Blackburn 34 16 9 9 46 34 +12 57
4 QPR 34 16 8 10 49 39 +10 56
5 Huddersfield 34 15 11 8 44 36 +8 56
6 Sheffield United 32 15 8 9 44 33 +11 53
7 Middlesbrough 32 15 7 10 41 32 +9 52
8 Luton 32 14 9 9 45 37 +8 51
9 Coventry 32 14 8 10 42 37 +5 50
10 Nott'm Forest 32 13 9 10 43 33 +10 48
11 West Brom 33 12 10 11 35 30 +5 46
12 Millwall 32 12 10 10 35 34 +1 46
13 Preston 34 11 13 10 37 38 -1 46
14 Stoke 32 12 8 12 41 36 +5 44
15 Derby 33 10 12 11 34 37 -3 42
16 Blackpool 33 11 9 13 36 40 -4 42
17 Bristol City 34 11 7 16 45 61 -16 40
18 Swansea 31 10 8 13 32 43 -11 38
19 Birmingham 34 9 10 15 40 53 -13 37
20 Cardiff 33 10 6 17 40 53 -13 36
21 Reading 33 10 5 18 41 63 -22 35
22 Hull 34 9 7 18 27 39 -12 34
23 Peterboro 32 5 6 21 24 63 -39 21
24 Barnsley 32 4 8 20 21 46 -25 20
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Fulham 18 11 4 3 43 16 +27 37
2 Blackburn 17 11 3 3 32 19 +13 36
3 Middlesbrough 17 11 2 4 27 15 +12 35
4 QPR 18 9 6 3 26 15 +11 33
5 Huddersfield 17 9 5 3 24 17 +7 32
6 West Brom 15 8 6 1 21 8 +13 30
7 Coventry 16 9 3 4 24 14 +10 30
8 Derby 17 8 6 3 23 16 +7 30
9 Luton 16 8 5 3 26 17 +9 29
10 Millwall 16 8 5 3 20 13 +7 29
11 Bournemouth 14 8 3 3 29 15 +14 27
12 Sheffield United 15 8 3 4 24 11 +13 27
13 Bristol City 18 7 5 6 23 23 0 26
14 Blackpool 17 8 2 7 17 18 -1 26
15 Stoke 17 7 4 6 25 20 +5 25
16 Swansea 15 7 4 4 19 14 +5 25
17 Preston 17 5 9 3 22 20 +2 24
18 Nott'm Forest 16 6 4 6 21 20 +1 22
19 Birmingham 16 6 4 6 21 21 0 22
20 Reading 17 5 4 8 25 35 -10 19
21 Hull 17 5 3 9 15 20 -5 18
22 Cardiff 16 5 2 9 18 21 -3 17
23 Peterboro 15 4 5 6 15 18 -3 17
24 Barnsley 15 3 4 8 9 17 -8 13
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bournemouth 16 9 4 3 20 11 +9 31
2 Fulham 14 9 3 2 38 13 +25 30
3 Nott'm Forest 16 7 5 4 22 13 +9 26
4 Sheffield United 17 7 5 5 20 22 -2 26
5 Huddersfield 17 6 6 5 20 19 +1 24
6 QPR 16 7 2 7 23 24 -1 23
7 Luton 16 6 4 6 19 20 -1 22
8 Preston 17 6 4 7 15 18 -3 22
9 Blackburn 17 5 6 6 14 15 -1 21
10 Coventry 16 5 5 6 18 23 -5 20
11 Stoke 15 5 4 6 16 16 0 19
12 Cardiff 17 5 4 8 22 32 -10 19
13 Middlesbrough 15 4 5 6 14 17 -3 17
14 Millwall 16 4 5 7 15 21 -6 17
15 Blackpool 16 3 7 6 19 22 -3 16
16 Hull 17 4 4 9 12 19 -7 16
17 West Brom 18 4 4 10 14 22 -8 16
18 Reading 16 5 1 10 16 28 -12 16
19 Birmingham 18 3 6 9 19 32 -13 15
20 Bristol City 16 4 2 10 22 38 -16 14
21 Swansea 16 3 4 9 13 29 -16 13
22 Derby 16 2 6 8 11 21 -10 12
23 Barnsley 17 1 4 12 12 29 -17 7
24 Peterboro 17 1 1 15 9 45 -36 4

Luton   Derby

Under / Over goals 2021/2022, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 17 Bristol City 34 11 23 1.3 1.8 11 7 16 45 61 40
2 19 Birmingham 34 14 20 1.2 1.6 9 10 15 40 53 37
3 21 Reading 33 13 20 1.2 1.9 10 5 18 41 63 35
4 1 Fulham 32 13 19 2.5 0.9 20 7 5 81 29 67
5 20 Cardiff 33 14 19 1.2 1.6 10 6 17 40 53 36
6 23 Peterboro 32 13 19 0.8 2.0 5 6 21 24 63 21
7 4 QPR 34 17 17 1.4 1.1 16 8 10 49 39 56
8 2 Bournemouth 30 14 16 1.6 0.9 17 7 6 49 26 58
9 8 Luton 32 16 16 1.4 1.2 14 9 9 45 37 51
10 10 Nott'm Forest 32 16 16 1.3 1.0 13 9 10 43 33 48
11 18 Swansea 31 15 16 1.0 1.4 10 8 13 32 43 38
12 9 Coventry 32 17 15 1.3 1.2 14 8 10 42 37 50
13 13 Preston 34 19 15 1.1 1.1 11 13 10 37 38 46
14 14 Stoke 32 17 15 1.3 1.1 12 8 12 41 36 44
15 3 Blackburn 34 20 14 1.4 1.0 16 9 9 46 34 57
16 5 Huddersfield 34 20 14 1.3 1.1 15 11 8 44 36 56
17 6 Sheffield United 32 18 14 1.4 1.0 15 8 9 44 33 53
18 15 Derby 33 19 14 1.0 1.1 10 12 11 34 37 42
19 16 Blackpool 33 19 14 1.1 1.2 11 9 13 36 40 42
20 7 Middlesbrough 32 20 12 1.3 1.0 15 7 10 41 32 52
21 11 West Brom 33 21 12 1.1 0.9 12 10 11 35 30 46
22 12 Millwall 32 20 12 1.1 1.1 12 10 10 35 34 46
23 24 Barnsley 32 20 12 0.7 1.4 4 8 20 21 46 20
24 22 Hull 34 26 8 0.8 1.1 9 7 18 27 39 34
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 2 Bournemouth 14 2 12 2.1 1.1 8 3 3 29 15 27
2 1 Fulham 18 7 11 2.4 0.9 11 4 3 43 16 37
3 19 Birmingham 16 5 11 1.3 1.3 6 4 6 21 21 22
4 3 Blackburn 17 7 10 1.9 1.1 11 3 3 32 19 36
5 10 Nott'm Forest 16 6 10 1.3 1.2 6 4 6 21 20 22
6 21 Reading 17 7 10 1.5 2.1 5 4 8 25 35 19
7 8 Luton 16 7 9 1.6 1.1 8 5 3 26 17 29
8 14 Stoke 17 8 9 1.5 1.2 7 4 6 25 20 25
9 17 Bristol City 18 9 9 1.3 1.3 7 5 6 23 23 26
10 9 Coventry 16 8 8 1.5 0.9 9 3 4 24 14 30
11 13 Preston 17 9 8 1.3 1.2 5 9 3 22 20 24
12 15 Derby 17 9 8 1.4 0.9 8 6 3 23 16 30
13 7 Middlesbrough 17 10 7 1.6 0.9 11 2 4 27 15 35
14 16 Blackpool 17 10 7 1.0 1.1 8 2 7 17 18 26
15 18 Swansea 15 8 7 1.3 0.9 7 4 4 19 14 25
16 20 Cardiff 16 9 7 1.1 1.3 5 2 9 18 21 17
17 23 Peterboro 15 8 7 1.0 1.2 4 5 6 15 18 17
18 4 QPR 18 12 6 1.4 0.8 9 6 3 26 15 33
19 5 Huddersfield 17 11 6 1.4 1.0 9 5 3 24 17 32
20 6 Sheffield United 15 9 6 1.6 0.7 8 3 4 24 11 27
21 11 West Brom 15 10 5 1.4 0.5 8 6 1 21 8 30
22 12 Millwall 16 11 5 1.2 0.8 8 5 3 20 13 29
23 22 Hull 17 12 5 0.9 1.2 5 3 9 15 20 18
24 24 Barnsley 15 12 3 0.6 1.1 3 4 8 9 17 13
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 17 Bristol City 16 2 14 1.4 2.4 4 2 10 22 38 14
2 20 Cardiff 17 5 12 1.3 1.9 5 4 8 22 32 19
3 23 Peterboro 17 5 12 0.5 2.6 1 1 15 9 45 4
4 4 QPR 16 5 11 1.4 1.5 7 2 7 23 24 23
5 21 Reading 16 6 10 1.0 1.8 5 1 10 16 28 16
6 18 Swansea 16 7 9 0.8 1.8 3 4 9 13 29 13
7 19 Birmingham 18 9 9 1.1 1.8 3 6 9 19 32 15
8 24 Barnsley 17 8 9 0.7 1.7 1 4 12 12 29 7
9 1 Fulham 14 6 8 2.7 0.9 9 3 2 38 13 30
10 5 Huddersfield 17 9 8 1.2 1.1 6 6 5 20 19 24
11 6 Sheffield United 17 9 8 1.2 1.3 7 5 5 20 22 26
12 8 Luton 16 9 7 1.2 1.2 6 4 6 19 20 22
13 9 Coventry 16 9 7 1.1 1.4 5 5 6 18 23 20
14 11 West Brom 18 11 7 0.8 1.2 4 4 10 14 22 16
15 12 Millwall 16 9 7 0.9 1.3 4 5 7 15 21 17
16 13 Preston 17 10 7 0.9 1.1 6 4 7 15 18 22
17 16 Blackpool 16 9 7 1.2 1.4 3 7 6 19 22 16
18 10 Nott'm Forest 16 10 6 1.4 0.8 7 5 4 22 13 26
19 14 Stoke 15 9 6 1.1 1.1 5 4 6 16 16 19
20 15 Derby 16 10 6 0.7 1.3 2 6 8 11 21 12
21 7 Middlesbrough 15 10 5 0.9 1.1 4 5 6 14 17 17
22 2 Bournemouth 16 12 4 1.2 0.7 9 4 3 20 11 31
23 3 Blackburn 17 13 4 0.8 0.9 5 6 6 14 15 21
24 22 Hull 17 14 3 0.7 1.1 4 4 9 12 19 16

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:40