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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: B Toner

Watford 1–0 Stoke

Full time · half time 0–0 · season 2025/2026

Home ✓ 2.01 fair 2.45
Draw 3.20 fair 3.80
Away 3.20 fair 3.04
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.91 fair 1.93
Over 2.5 1.91 fair 2.08

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Watford Stoke
10 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 1
7 Corners 5
10 Fouls 12
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (254 league matches this season so far).
Result Watford to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.90
Expected goals 1.38 – 1.21
Home / Draw / Away
WatfordDrawStoke
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12.5% 1–0 10.3% 0–1 9%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Watford before this match, all matches
1.38points / match
1.43scored / match
1.33conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 21 played · 30:28
Stoke before this match, all matches
1.57points / match
1.33scored / match
0.95conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 21 played · 28:20
Watford all matches all matches Stoke

Per match

1.43 Goals scored 1.33
1.33 Goals conceded 0.95
2.76 Total goals 2.29
14.43 Shots 11.67
4.90 Shots on target 4.19
12.24 Shots faced 12.24
4.38 Corners 5.81
5.14 Corners against 5.10
11.57 Fouls 11.00
2.00 Yellow cards 1.95
0.67 1st-half goals scored 0.62
0.95 1st-half goals conceded 0.48

How often Full Time

33% Wins 48%
38% Draws 14%
29% Losses 38%
100% Over 0.5 goals 95%
81% Over 1.5 goals 62%
57% Over 2.5 goals 48%
29% Over 3.5 goals 14%
10% Over 4.5 goals 5%
0% Over 5.5 goals 5%
76% Both teams scored 38%
5% Clean sheets 33%
19% Failed to score 33%

How often Half Time

24% Wins 38%
33% Draws 33%
43% Losses 29%
86% Over 0.5 goals 67%
52% Over 1.5 goals 29%
24% Over 2.5 goals 14%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Watford all matches
Stoke all matches
Watford before this match, at home
2.00points / match
1.73scored / match
1.09conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 11 played · 19:12
Stoke before this match, away
1.27points / match
1.00scored / match
1.09conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 11 played · 11:12
Watford at home away Stoke

Per match

1.73 Goals scored 1.00
1.09 Goals conceded 1.09
2.82 Total goals 2.09
17.55 Shots 10.82
6.00 Shots on target 3.64
11.45 Shots faced 14.73
5.09 Corners 5.64
4.73 Corners against 5.36
11.09 Fouls 10.82
1.45 Yellow cards 2.00
0.91 1st-half goals scored 0.27
0.91 1st-half goals conceded 0.73

How often Full Time

55% Wins 36%
36% Draws 18%
9% Losses 45%
100% Over 0.5 goals 91%
91% Over 1.5 goals 64%
64% Over 2.5 goals 45%
18% Over 3.5 goals 9%
9% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
82% Both teams scored 27%
9% Clean sheets 36%
9% Failed to score 45%

How often Half Time

27% Wins 18%
36% Draws 45%
36% Losses 36%
91% Over 0.5 goals 55%
64% Over 1.5 goals 36%
27% Over 2.5 goals 9%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Watford at home
Stoke away

Last 10 matches before this match

Watford all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
13.12.25 Wrexham – Watford 2–2 (1–2) 2.503.202.70 2.00 1.80
09.12.25 Watford – Sheffield Weds 1–1 (0–1) 1.534.335.00 1.57 2.38
06.12.25 Watford – Norwich 3–2 (1–2) 1.863.603.80 1.85 2.00
01.12.25 Birmingham – Watford 2–1 (2–0) 1.793.604.33 2.10 1.73
25.11.25 Watford – Preston 1–1 (1–1) 1.813.604.20 2.10 1.73
22.11.25 Derby – Watford 2–3 (1–0) 2.453.202.82 2.30 1.62
07.11.25 Watford – Bristol City 1–1 (1–1) 2.013.403.60 2.20 1.67
04.11.25 Ipswich – Watford 1–1 (1–1) 1.663.605.00 1.90 1.95
01.11.25 Watford – Middlesbrough 3–0 (2–0) 2.653.402.45 2.05 1.80
25.10.25 Coventry – Watford 3–1 (3–0) 1.454.756.00 1.67 2.20

Stoke all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
13.12.25 Stoke – Swansea 2–1 (1–0) 1.813.504.20 2.10 1.73
10.12.25 Ipswich – Stoke 1–0 (1–0) 1.573.755.50 1.88 1.98
06.12.25 Sheffield United – Stoke 4–0 (3–0) 2.053.303.60 2.10 1.73
29.11.25 Stoke – Hull 1–2 (1–0) 1.623.805.00 1.80 2.00
25.11.25 Stoke – Charlton 3–0 (3–0) 1.683.704.75 2.00 1.80
22.11.25 Leicester – Stoke 2–1 (2–0) 1.963.403.70 1.85 2.00
08.11.25 Stoke – Coventry 0–1 (0–0) 2.823.602.25 1.80 2.00
04.11.25 Oxford – Stoke 0–3 (0–2) 3.303.052.30 2.10 1.73
01.11.25 Stoke – Bristol City 5–1 (3–0) 2.323.302.85 2.10 1.73
25.10.25 Portsmouth – Stoke 0–1 (0–0) 2.753.052.57 2.00 1.80

Watford at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.12.25 Watford – Sheffield Weds 1–1 (0–1) 1.534.335.00 1.57 2.38
06.12.25 Watford – Norwich 3–2 (1–2) 1.863.603.80 1.85 2.00
25.11.25 Watford – Preston 1–1 (1–1) 1.813.604.20 2.10 1.73
07.11.25 Watford – Bristol City 1–1 (1–1) 2.013.403.60 2.20 1.67
01.11.25 Watford – Middlesbrough 3–0 (2–0) 2.653.402.45 2.05 1.80
22.10.25 Watford – West Brom 2–1 (1–1) 2.653.252.55 2.20 1.67
04.10.25 Watford – Oxford 2–1 (2–1) 1.963.253.90 2.00 1.80
27.09.25 Watford – Hull 2–1 (0–1) 2.203.403.10 1.95 1.90
13.09.25 Watford – Blackburn 0–1 (0–0) 2.153.503.10 2.20 1.67
30.08.25 Watford – Southampton 2–2 (0–1) 3.003.302.35 2.03 1.83

Stoke away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.12.25 Ipswich – Stoke 1–0 (1–0) 1.573.755.50 1.88 1.98
06.12.25 Sheffield United – Stoke 4–0 (3–0) 2.053.303.60 2.10 1.73
22.11.25 Leicester – Stoke 2–1 (2–0) 1.963.403.70 1.85 2.00
04.11.25 Oxford – Stoke 0–3 (0–2) 3.303.052.30 2.10 1.73
25.10.25 Portsmouth – Stoke 0–1 (0–0) 2.753.052.57 2.00 1.80
21.10.25 Millwall – Stoke 2–0 (2–0) 2.303.202.95 2.30 1.62
04.10.25 Blackburn – Stoke 1–1 (0–0) 2.503.252.70 2.20 1.67
30.09.25 Middlesbrough – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 1.763.404.50 2.00 1.80
20.09.25 QPR – Stoke 1–0 (0–0) 2.653.202.55 2.10 1.73
23.08.25 Southampton – Stoke 1–2 (0–0) 1.733.804.50 1.98 1.88

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Watford winsDrawsStoke wins
6matches
2.00goals / match
33%over 2.5
17%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.03.25E1 Stoke – Watford 0–0 (0–0) 2.453.302.88 1.95 1.90
17.08.24E1 Watford – Stoke 3–0 (0–0) 2.633.252.70 2.05 1.80
29.12.23E1 Watford – Stoke 1–1 (1–1) 2.153.303.50 2.05 1.75
19.08.23E1 Stoke – Watford 1–0 (0–0) 2.253.303.25 2.03 1.83
08.05.23E1 Watford – Stoke 2–0 (0–0) 2.383.203.00 1.73 2.10
02.10.22E1 Stoke – Watford 0–4 (0–1) 2.503.252.90 2.10 1.72

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 22 14 6 2 53 23 +30 48
2 Middlesbrough 21 12 6 3 33 22 +11 42
3 Preston 22 9 9 4 30 23 +7 36
4 Millwall 22 10 5 7 25 31 -6 35
5 Ipswich 21 9 7 5 35 22 +13 34
6 Hull 21 10 4 7 36 35 +1 34
7 Stoke 21 10 3 8 28 20 +8 33
8 Southampton 22 8 7 7 36 31 +5 31
9 Leicester 21 8 7 6 30 27 +3 31
10 QPR 21 9 4 8 28 33 -5 31
11 Bristol City 21 8 6 7 28 24 +4 30
12 Derby 21 8 6 7 30 29 +1 30
13 Birmingham 21 8 5 8 30 26 +4 29
14 Watford 21 7 8 6 30 28 +2 29
15 Wrexham 22 6 10 6 27 27 0 28
16 West Brom 21 8 4 9 25 28 -3 28
17 Swansea 22 7 5 10 24 30 -6 26
18 Blackburn 21 7 4 10 22 26 -4 25
19 Charlton 20 6 6 8 20 26 -6 24
20 Sheffield United 21 7 2 12 25 31 -6 23
21 Portsmouth 20 5 5 10 17 27 -10 20
22 Oxford 21 4 7 10 22 30 -8 19
23 Norwich 22 4 6 12 25 35 -10 18
24 Sheffield Weds 20 1 6 13 15 40 -25 9
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 10 8 2 0 26 7 +19 26
2 Middlesbrough 10 7 2 1 16 10 +6 23
3 Ipswich 11 6 4 1 19 9 +10 22
4 Watford 11 6 4 1 19 12 +7 22
5 Birmingham 10 6 3 1 22 9 +13 21
6 Preston 12 5 5 2 16 12 +4 20
7 Hull 11 6 2 3 18 18 0 20
8 Stoke 10 6 1 3 17 8 +9 19
9 Southampton 11 5 4 2 17 11 +6 19
10 West Brom 10 5 4 1 13 8 +5 19
11 Millwall 11 6 1 4 13 15 -2 19
12 Swansea 12 5 3 4 15 16 -1 18
13 Wrexham 11 4 5 2 17 15 +2 17
14 QPR 10 5 2 3 16 14 +2 17
15 Leicester 10 4 4 2 14 11 +3 16
16 Bristol City 11 4 3 4 16 13 +3 15
17 Charlton 9 4 2 3 11 11 0 14
18 Portsmouth 11 4 2 5 11 12 -1 14
19 Derby 11 3 4 4 14 17 -3 13
20 Sheffield United 10 3 2 5 12 12 0 11
21 Oxford 10 2 4 4 11 15 -4 10
22 Blackburn 11 2 3 6 11 16 -5 9
23 Norwich 10 2 1 7 11 16 -5 7
24 Sheffield Weds 11 0 2 9 5 27 -22 2
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 12 6 4 2 27 16 +11 22
2 Middlesbrough 11 5 4 2 17 12 +5 19
3 Derby 10 5 2 3 16 12 +4 17
4 Preston 10 4 4 2 14 11 +3 16
5 Blackburn 10 5 1 4 11 10 +1 16
6 Millwall 11 4 4 3 12 16 -4 16
7 Bristol City 10 4 3 3 12 11 +1 15
8 Leicester 11 4 3 4 16 16 0 15
9 Hull 10 4 2 4 18 17 +1 14
10 Stoke 11 4 2 5 11 12 -1 14
11 QPR 11 4 2 5 12 19 -7 14
12 Ipswich 10 3 3 4 16 13 +3 12
13 Southampton 11 3 3 5 19 20 -1 12
14 Sheffield United 11 4 0 7 13 19 -6 12
15 Wrexham 11 2 5 4 10 12 -2 11
16 Norwich 12 2 5 5 14 19 -5 11
17 Charlton 11 2 4 5 9 15 -6 10
18 Oxford 11 2 3 6 11 15 -4 9
19 West Brom 11 3 0 8 12 20 -8 9
20 Swansea 10 2 2 6 9 14 -5 8
21 Birmingham 11 2 2 7 8 17 -9 8
22 Sheffield Weds 9 1 4 4 10 13 -3 7
23 Watford 10 1 4 5 11 16 -5 7
24 Portsmouth 9 1 3 5 6 15 -9 6

Watford   Stoke

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 6 Hull 21 6 15 1.7 1.7 10 4 7 36 35 34
2 8 Southampton 22 7 15 1.6 1.4 8 7 7 36 31 31
3 1 Coventry 22 8 14 2.4 1.0 14 6 2 53 23 48
4 10 QPR 21 8 13 1.3 1.6 9 4 8 28 33 31
5 2 Middlesbrough 21 9 12 1.6 1.0 12 6 3 33 22 42
6 9 Leicester 21 9 12 1.4 1.3 8 7 6 30 27 31
7 14 Watford 21 9 12 1.4 1.3 7 8 6 30 28 29
8 24 Sheffield Weds 20 8 12 0.8 2.0 1 6 13 15 40 9
9 5 Ipswich 21 10 11 1.7 1.0 9 7 5 35 22 34
10 12 Derby 21 10 11 1.4 1.4 8 6 7 30 29 30
11 13 Birmingham 21 10 11 1.4 1.2 8 5 8 30 26 29
12 17 Swansea 22 11 11 1.1 1.4 7 5 10 24 30 26
13 20 Sheffield United 21 10 11 1.2 1.5 7 2 12 25 31 23
14 22 Oxford 21 10 11 1.0 1.4 4 7 10 22 30 19
15 23 Norwich 22 11 11 1.1 1.6 4 6 12 25 35 18
16 4 Millwall 22 12 10 1.1 1.4 10 5 7 25 31 35
17 7 Stoke 21 11 10 1.3 1.0 10 3 8 28 20 33
18 16 West Brom 21 11 10 1.2 1.3 8 4 9 25 28 28
19 3 Preston 22 13 9 1.4 1.0 9 9 4 30 23 36
20 11 Bristol City 21 12 9 1.3 1.1 8 6 7 28 24 30
21 18 Blackburn 21 12 9 1.0 1.2 7 4 10 22 26 25
22 21 Portsmouth 20 11 9 0.8 1.4 5 5 10 17 27 20
23 15 Wrexham 22 14 8 1.2 1.2 6 10 6 27 27 28
24 19 Charlton 20 12 8 1.0 1.3 6 6 8 20 26 24
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 6 Hull 11 4 7 1.6 1.6 6 2 3 18 18 20
2 10 QPR 10 3 7 1.6 1.4 5 2 3 16 14 17
3 14 Watford 11 4 7 1.7 1.1 6 4 1 19 12 22
4 24 Sheffield Weds 11 4 7 0.5 2.5 0 2 9 5 27 2
5 1 Coventry 10 4 6 2.6 0.7 8 2 0 26 7 26
6 2 Middlesbrough 10 4 6 1.6 1.0 7 2 1 16 10 23
7 5 Ipswich 11 5 6 1.7 0.8 6 4 1 19 9 22
8 8 Southampton 11 5 6 1.5 1.0 5 4 2 17 11 19
9 11 Bristol City 11 5 6 1.5 1.2 4 3 4 16 13 15
10 13 Birmingham 10 4 6 2.2 0.9 6 3 1 22 9 21
11 17 Swansea 12 6 6 1.2 1.3 5 3 4 15 16 18
12 22 Oxford 10 4 6 1.1 1.5 2 4 4 11 15 10
13 23 Norwich 10 4 6 1.1 1.6 2 1 7 11 16 7
14 3 Preston 12 7 5 1.3 1.0 5 5 2 16 12 20
15 4 Millwall 11 6 5 1.2 1.4 6 1 4 13 15 19
16 7 Stoke 10 5 5 1.7 0.8 6 1 3 17 8 19
17 15 Wrexham 11 6 5 1.5 1.4 4 5 2 17 15 17
18 18 Blackburn 11 6 5 1.0 1.5 2 3 6 11 16 9
19 20 Sheffield United 10 5 5 1.2 1.2 3 2 5 12 12 11
20 21 Portsmouth 11 6 5 1.0 1.1 4 2 5 11 12 14
21 9 Leicester 10 6 4 1.4 1.1 4 4 2 14 11 16
22 12 Derby 11 7 4 1.3 1.5 3 4 4 14 17 13
23 19 Charlton 9 5 4 1.2 1.2 4 2 3 11 11 14
24 16 West Brom 10 7 3 1.3 0.8 5 4 1 13 8 19
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 8 Southampton 11 2 9 1.7 1.8 3 3 5 19 20 12
2 1 Coventry 12 4 8 2.2 1.3 6 4 2 27 16 22
3 6 Hull 10 2 8 1.8 1.7 4 2 4 18 17 14
4 9 Leicester 11 3 8 1.5 1.5 4 3 4 16 16 15
5 12 Derby 10 3 7 1.6 1.2 5 2 3 16 12 17
6 16 West Brom 11 4 7 1.1 1.8 3 0 8 12 20 9
7 2 Middlesbrough 11 5 6 1.5 1.1 5 4 2 17 12 19
8 10 QPR 11 5 6 1.1 1.7 4 2 5 12 19 14
9 20 Sheffield United 11 5 6 1.2 1.7 4 0 7 13 19 12
10 4 Millwall 11 6 5 1.1 1.5 4 4 3 12 16 16
11 5 Ipswich 10 5 5 1.6 1.3 3 3 4 16 13 12
12 7 Stoke 11 6 5 1.0 1.1 4 2 5 11 12 14
13 13 Birmingham 11 6 5 0.7 1.5 2 2 7 8 17 8
14 14 Watford 10 5 5 1.1 1.6 1 4 5 11 16 7
15 17 Swansea 10 5 5 0.9 1.4 2 2 6 9 14 8
16 22 Oxford 11 6 5 1.0 1.4 2 3 6 11 15 9
17 23 Norwich 12 7 5 1.2 1.6 2 5 5 14 19 11
18 24 Sheffield Weds 9 4 5 1.1 1.4 1 4 4 10 13 7
19 3 Preston 10 6 4 1.4 1.1 4 4 2 14 11 16
20 18 Blackburn 10 6 4 1.1 1.0 5 1 4 11 10 16
21 19 Charlton 11 7 4 0.8 1.4 2 4 5 9 15 10
22 21 Portsmouth 9 5 4 0.7 1.7 1 3 5 6 15 6
23 11 Bristol City 10 7 3 1.2 1.1 4 3 3 12 11 15
24 15 Wrexham 11 8 3 0.9 1.1 2 5 4 10 12 11

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51