Nacional 0–1 Estrela – Portugal Primeira Liga, 6 Apr 2025

Match facts

Nacional Estrela

19 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

7 Corners 5

15 Fouls 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (247 league matches this season so far).

Result Nacional to win

Goals Under 2.5

Both teams score No fair 1.89

Expected goals 1.45 – 0.96

Home / Draw / Away

48% 27% 25%

NacionalDrawEstrela

Under / Over 2.5 goals

57% 43%

Under 2.5Over 2.5

Both teams to score

53% 47%

NoYes

Total goals in the match

9% 0

22% 1

26% 2

21% 3

13% 4

10% 5+

Most likely scores

1–0 13% 1–1 12.5% 2–0 9.4%

Statistics 2024/2025, before this match

Nacional before this match, all matches

1.07points / match

0.96scored / match

1.37conceded / match

8 5 14

WonDrawnLost 27 played · 26:37

Estrela before this match, all matches

0.85points / match

0.78scored / match

1.52conceded / match

5 8 14

WonDrawnLost 27 played · 21:41

Nacional all matches all matches Estrela

Per match

0.96 Goals scored 0.78

1.37 Goals conceded 1.52

2.33 Total goals 2.30

12.52 Shots 9.30

3.96 Shots on target 2.63

14.59 Shots faced 12.33

3.96 Corners 3.89

6.30 Corners against 5.93

13.78 Fouls 15.41

2.48 Yellow cards 2.89

0.59 1st-half goals scored 0.33

0.63 1st-half goals conceded 0.78

How often Full Time

30% Wins 19%

19% Draws 30%

52% Losses 52%

93% Over 0.5 goals 93%

70% Over 1.5 goals 63%

41% Over 2.5 goals 37%

19% Over 3.5 goals 19%

4% Over 4.5 goals 11%

4% Over 5.5 goals 7%

37% Both teams scored 41%

26% Clean sheets 19%

44% Failed to score 48%

How often Half Time

26% Wins 15%

37% Draws 41%

37% Losses 44%

74% Over 0.5 goals 63%

33% Over 1.5 goals 26%

11% Over 2.5 goals 15%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Nacional all matches

3

1

W

2

L

1

2

L

2

W

2

D

1

L

2

1

W

3

L

3

1

W

1

L

Estrela all matches

1

L

D

2

3

L

1

L

1

W

D

1

D

1

D

2

L

3

L

Nacional before this match, at home

1.77points / match

1.46scored / match

1.38conceded / match

7 2 4

WonDrawnLost 13 played · 19:18

Estrela before this match, away

0.54points / match

0.38scored / match

1.46conceded / match

1 4 8

WonDrawnLost 13 played · 5:19

Nacional at home away Estrela

Per match

1.46 Goals scored 0.38

1.38 Goals conceded 1.46

2.85 Total goals 1.85

13.69 Shots 8.92

4.77 Shots on target 2.62

13.00 Shots faced 12.31

4.00 Corners 3.92

5.54 Corners against 6.92

13.38 Fouls 15.15

2.46 Yellow cards 2.62

1.00 1st-half goals scored 0.23

0.46 1st-half goals conceded 0.77

How often Full Time

54% Wins 8%

15% Draws 31%

31% Losses 62%

92% Over 0.5 goals 92%

85% Over 1.5 goals 54%

54% Over 2.5 goals 15%

31% Over 3.5 goals 8%

8% Over 4.5 goals 8%

8% Over 5.5 goals 8%

46% Both teams scored 31%

38% Clean sheets 15%

23% Failed to score 62%

How often Half Time

46% Wins 15%

38% Draws 31%

15% Losses 54%

69% Over 0.5 goals 69%

46% Over 1.5 goals 15%

23% Over 2.5 goals 8%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Nacional at home

2

W

D

1

W

2

L

2

W

3

1

W

1

2

L

2

D

2

1

W

3

1

W

Estrela away

3

L

1

5

L

1

L

2

L

1

D

1

L

1

W

1

D

2

L

Last 10 matches before this match

Nacional all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
30.03.25	Santa Clara – Nacional	1–0 (1–0)	1.90	3.20	4.33	2.50	1.50
16.03.25	Nacional – Casa Pia	3–1 (1–0)	2.40	3.30	2.90	2.20	1.65
08.03.25	Benfica – Nacional	3–0 (2–0)	1.22	7.00	11.00	1.44	2.60
01.03.25	Nacional – Famalicao	2–1 (1–0)	2.60	3.00	2.90	2.20	1.65
21.02.25	Sp Braga – Nacional	1–0 (1–0)	1.57	3.80	6.00	1.73	2.08
15.02.25	Nacional – Estoril	2–2 (1–1)	2.25	3.20	3.30	2.15	1.67
09.02.25	Farense – Nacional	0–2 (0–0)	2.30	3.20	3.10	2.20	1.65
01.02.25	Nacional – Arouca	1–2 (1–2)	2.50	3.20	2.88	2.15	1.67
25.01.25	Sp Lisbon – Nacional	2–0 (1–0)	1.14	9.50	12.00	1.37	2.87
19.01.25	Nacional – AVS	3–1 (3–1)	2.05	3.20	3.75	2.25	1.62

Estrela all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
29.03.25	Estrela – Sp Lisbon	0–3 (0–0)	9.00	5.00	1.33	1.73	2.08
16.03.25	Guimaraes – Estrela	2–0 (1–0)	1.45	4.10	7.50	2.08	1.73
07.03.25	Estrela – Gil Vicente	1–1 (0–0)	2.62	3.00	2.80	2.50	1.50
02.03.25	Moreirense – Estrela	1–1 (0–0)	1.91	3.00	4.75	2.50	1.50
23.02.25	Estrela – Santa Clara	0–0 (0–0)	3.60	3.20	2.10	2.70	1.44
14.02.25	Boavista – Estrela	0–1 (0–1)	2.45	3.00	3.10	2.50	1.50
09.02.25	Casa Pia – Estrela	1–0 (1–0)	1.80	3.40	4.50	2.30	1.60
02.02.25	Estrela – Benfica	2–3 (1–3)	9.00	5.75	1.29	1.60	2.30
25.01.25	Famalicao – Estrela	0–0 (0–0)	1.82	3.40	4.33	2.20	1.65
19.01.25	Estrela – Sp Braga	0–1 (0–0)	5.00	3.80	1.67	1.85	2.00

Nacional at home

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
16.03.25	Nacional – Casa Pia	3–1 (1–0)	2.40	3.30	2.90	2.20	1.65
01.03.25	Nacional – Famalicao	2–1 (1–0)	2.60	3.00	2.90	2.20	1.65
15.02.25	Nacional – Estoril	2–2 (1–1)	2.25	3.20	3.30	2.15	1.67
01.02.25	Nacional – Arouca	1–2 (1–2)	2.50	3.20	2.88	2.15	1.67
19.01.25	Nacional – AVS	3–1 (3–1)	2.05	3.20	3.75	2.25	1.62
12.01.25	Nacional – Porto	2–0 (2–0)	8.50	4.75	1.36	1.73	2.08
19.12.24	Nacional – Benfica	0–2 (0–0)	8.50	7.00	1.25	1.40	2.88
14.12.24	Nacional – Moreirense	1–0 (0–0)	2.80	3.10	2.60	2.25	1.62
30.11.24	Nacional – Boavista	0–0 (0–0)	1.91	3.40	4.00	2.15	1.67
04.11.24	Nacional – Santa Clara	2–0 (2–0)	3.30	3.10	2.25	2.35	1.57

Estrela away

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
16.03.25	Guimaraes – Estrela	2–0 (1–0)	1.45	4.10	7.50	2.08	1.73
02.03.25	Moreirense – Estrela	1–1 (0–0)	1.91	3.00	4.75	2.50	1.50
14.02.25	Boavista – Estrela	0–1 (0–1)	2.45	3.00	3.10	2.50	1.50
09.02.25	Casa Pia – Estrela	1–0 (1–0)	1.80	3.40	4.50	2.30	1.60
25.01.25	Famalicao – Estrela	0–0 (0–0)	1.82	3.40	4.33	2.20	1.65
28.12.24	AVS – Estrela	1–1 (0–1)	2.45	3.00	3.10	2.25	1.62
16.12.24	Porto – Estrela	2–0 (1–0)	1.14	7.50	19.00	1.48	2.60
29.11.24	Farense – Estrela	1–0 (1–0)	2.20	3.25	3.40	2.30	1.60
01.11.24	Sp Lisbon – Estrela	5–1 (3–1)	1.08	11.00	19.00	1.30	3.50
05.10.24	Gil Vicente – Estrela	3–0 (2–0)	1.85	3.50	4.20	2.08	1.73

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

1

Nacional winsDrawsEstrela wins

1matches

2.00goals / match

0%over 2.5

0%both scored

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
10.11.24P1	Estrela – Nacional	2–0 (0–0)	2.20	3.40	3.20	2.10	1.70

Portugal Primeira Liga table 2024/2025, before this match

All matches – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Sp Lisbon	27	20	5	2	73	23	+50	65
2	Benfica	27	21	2	4	65	22	+43	65
3	Porto	27	17	5	5	53	21	+32	56
4	Sp Braga	27	17	5	5	44	23	+21	56
5	Santa Clara	28	14	4	10	28	27	+1	46
6	Guimaraes	28	11	12	5	40	29	+11	45
7	Famalicao	28	10	10	8	35	31	+4	40
8	Casa Pia	27	11	6	10	34	36	-2	39
9	Estoril	28	10	9	9	38	43	-5	39
10	Moreirense	28	9	8	11	34	39	-5	35
11	Nacional	27	8	5	14	26	37	-11	29
12	Rio Ave	27	7	8	12	30	45	-15	29
13	Arouca	28	7	8	13	27	43	-16	29
14	Gil Vicente	28	6	8	14	27	42	-15	26
15	Estrela	27	5	8	14	21	41	-20	23
16	AVS	28	4	11	13	21	44	-23	23
17	Farense	27	3	8	16	19	40	-21	17
18	Boavista	27	3	6	18	17	46	-29	15

Home – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Benfica	14	13	0	1	43	9	+34	39
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	32	10	+22	34
3	Porto	13	10	3	0	30	5	+25	33
4	Guimaraes	14	8	5	1	25	14	+11	29
5	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	27	16	+11	27
6	Santa Clara	14	8	2	4	14	12	+2	26
7	Casa Pia	14	7	4	3	19	14	+5	25
8	Moreirense	14	6	6	2	19	16	+3	24
9	Nacional	13	7	2	4	19	18	+1	23
10	Estoril	14	6	4	4	18	19	-1	22
11	Famalicao	14	5	6	3	14	10	+4	21
12	Rio Ave	13	5	6	2	21	20	+1	21
13	Gil Vicente	14	4	4	6	16	17	-1	16
14	Estrela	14	4	4	6	16	22	-6	16
15	Arouca	14	3	5	6	11	18	-7	14
16	AVS	14	3	5	6	11	20	-9	14
17	Farense	13	2	1	10	7	20	-13	7
18	Boavista	14	1	3	10	7	23	-16	6

Away – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Sp Lisbon	14	9	4	1	41	13	+28	31
2	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	17	7	+10	29
3	Benfica	13	8	2	3	22	13	+9	26
4	Porto	14	7	2	5	23	16	+7	23
5	Santa Clara	14	6	2	6	14	15	-1	20
6	Famalicao	14	5	4	5	21	21	0	19
7	Estoril	14	4	5	5	20	24	-4	17
8	Guimaraes	14	3	7	4	15	15	0	16
9	Arouca	14	4	3	7	16	25	-9	15
10	Casa Pia	13	4	2	7	15	22	-7	14
11	Moreirense	14	3	2	9	15	23	-8	11
12	Farense	14	1	7	6	12	20	-8	10
13	Gil Vicente	14	2	4	8	11	25	-14	10
14	Boavista	13	2	3	8	10	23	-13	9
15	AVS	14	1	6	7	10	24	-14	9
16	Rio Ave	14	2	2	10	9	25	-16	8
17	Estrela	13	1	4	8	5	19	-14	7
18	Nacional	14	1	3	10	7	19	-12	6

Nacional Estrela

Under / Over goals 2024/2025, before this match

All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1	1	Sp Lisbon	27	7	20	2.7	0.9	20	5	2	73	23	65
2	9	Estoril	28	9	19	1.4	1.5	10	9	9	38	43	39
3	2	Benfica	27	9	18	2.4	0.8	21	2	4	65	22	65
4	12	Rio Ave	27	12	15	1.1	1.7	7	8	12	30	45	29
5	4	Sp Braga	27	13	14	1.6	0.9	17	5	5	44	23	56
6	10	Moreirense	28	14	14	1.2	1.4	9	8	11	34	39	35
7	13	Arouca	28	14	14	1.0	1.5	7	8	13	27	43	29
8	3	Porto	27	14	13	2.0	0.8	17	5	5	53	21	56
9	7	Famalicao	28	15	13	1.2	1.1	10	10	8	35	31	40
10	14	Gil Vicente	28	15	13	1.0	1.5	6	8	14	27	42	26
11	18	Boavista	27	14	13	0.6	1.7	3	6	18	17	46	15
12	6	Guimaraes	28	16	12	1.4	1.0	11	12	5	40	29	45
13	8	Casa Pia	27	15	12	1.3	1.3	11	6	10	34	36	39
14	11	Nacional	27	16	11	1.0	1.4	8	5	14	26	37	29
15	17	Farense	27	16	11	0.7	1.5	3	8	16	19	40	17
16	15	Estrela	27	17	10	0.8	1.5	5	8	14	21	41	23
17	16	AVS	28	18	10	0.8	1.6	4	11	13	21	44	23
18	5	Santa Clara	28	20	8	1.0	1.0	14	4	10	28	27	46

Home – Under/Over goals
#
1	2	Benfica	14	2	12	3.1	0.6	13	0	1	43	9	39
2	9	Estoril	14	5	9	1.3	1.4	6	4	4	18	19	22
3	12	Rio Ave	13	4	9	1.6	1.5	5	6	2	21	20	21
4	1	Sp Lisbon	13	5	8	2.5	0.8	11	1	1	32	10	34
5	4	Sp Braga	14	6	8	1.9	1.1	8	3	3	27	16	27
6	15	Estrela	14	6	8	1.1	1.6	4	4	6	16	22	16
7	6	Guimaraes	14	7	7	1.8	1.0	8	5	1	25	14	29
8	10	Moreirense	14	7	7	1.4	1.1	6	6	2	19	16	24
9	11	Nacional	13	6	7	1.5	1.4	7	2	4	19	18	23
10	14	Gil Vicente	14	7	7	1.1	1.2	4	4	6	16	17	16
11	3	Porto	13	7	6	2.3	0.4	10	3	0	30	5	33
12	8	Casa Pia	14	9	5	1.4	1.0	7	4	3	19	14	25
13	16	AVS	14	9	5	0.8	1.4	3	5	6	11	20	14
14	17	Farense	13	8	5	0.5	1.5	2	1	10	7	20	7
15	18	Boavista	14	9	5	0.5	1.6	1	3	10	7	23	6
16	5	Santa Clara	14	10	4	1.0	0.9	8	2	4	14	12	26
17	7	Famalicao	14	10	4	1.0	0.7	5	6	3	14	10	21
18	13	Arouca	14	10	4	0.8	1.3	3	5	6	11	18	14

Away – Under/Over goals
#
1	1	Sp Lisbon	14	2	12	2.9	0.9	9	4	1	41	13	31
2	9	Estoril	14	4	10	1.4	1.7	4	5	5	20	24	17
3	13	Arouca	14	4	10	1.1	1.8	4	3	7	16	25	15
4	7	Famalicao	14	5	9	1.5	1.5	5	4	5	21	21	19
5	18	Boavista	13	5	8	0.8	1.8	2	3	8	10	23	9
6	3	Porto	14	7	7	1.6	1.1	7	2	5	23	16	23
7	8	Casa Pia	13	6	7	1.2	1.7	4	2	7	15	22	14
8	10	Moreirense	14	7	7	1.1	1.6	3	2	9	15	23	11
9	2	Benfica	13	7	6	1.7	1.0	8	2	3	22	13	26
10	4	Sp Braga	13	7	6	1.3	0.5	9	2	2	17	7	29
11	12	Rio Ave	14	8	6	0.6	1.8	2	2	10	9	25	8
12	14	Gil Vicente	14	8	6	0.8	1.8	2	4	8	11	25	10
13	17	Farense	14	8	6	0.9	1.4	1	7	6	12	20	10
14	6	Guimaraes	14	9	5	1.1	1.1	3	7	4	15	15	16
15	16	AVS	14	9	5	0.7	1.7	1	6	7	10	24	9
16	5	Santa Clara	14	10	4	1.0	1.1	6	2	6	14	15	20
17	11	Nacional	14	10	4	0.5	1.4	1	3	10	7	19	6
18	15	Estrela	13	11	2	0.4	1.5	1	4	8	5	19	7

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.