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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England League One · ·Referee: B Toner

Derby 1–0 Burton

Full time · half time 0–0 · season 2022/2023

Home ✓ 1.50 fair 1.63
Draw 4.20 fair 5.00
Away 7.00 fair 5.40
Under 2.5 ✓ 2.10 fair 2.74
Over 2.5 1.70 fair 1.57

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Burton
23 Shots 6
10 Shots on target 2
8 Corners 5
11 Fouls 9
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (509 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.69
Expected goals 2.17 – 1.11
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawBurton
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
2–1 9.8% 1–1 9.1% 2–0 8.9%

Statistics 2022/2023, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
1.67points / match
1.51scored / match
1.02conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 43 played · 65:44
Burton before this match, all matches
1.20points / match
1.34scored / match
1.88conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 41 played · 55:77
Derby all matches all matches Burton

Per match

1.51 Goals scored 1.34
1.02 Goals conceded 1.88
2.53 Total goals 3.22
14.12 Shots 11.85
5.02 Shots on target 3.98
9.56 Shots faced 14.15
5.70 Corners 5.39
4.58 Corners against 5.51
10.26 Fouls 10.78
1.84 Yellow cards 1.49
0.79 1st-half goals scored 0.59
0.37 1st-half goals conceded 0.78

How often Full Time

47% Wins 32%
28% Draws 24%
26% Losses 44%
86% Over 0.5 goals 95%
77% Over 1.5 goals 83%
47% Over 2.5 goals 59%
26% Over 3.5 goals 37%
16% Over 4.5 goals 27%
2% Over 5.5 goals 12%
49% Both teams scored 56%
37% Clean sheets 17%
28% Failed to score 32%

How often Half Time

47% Wins 27%
35% Draws 41%
19% Losses 32%
67% Over 0.5 goals 66%
28% Over 1.5 goals 39%
12% Over 2.5 goals 22%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Burton all matches
Derby before this match, at home
1.95points / match
1.81scored / match
0.90conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 21 played · 38:19
Burton before this match, away
0.95points / match
1.40scored / match
2.20conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 20 played · 28:44
Derby at home away Burton

Per match

1.81 Goals scored 1.40
0.90 Goals conceded 2.20
2.71 Total goals 3.60
15.10 Shots 11.50
5.24 Shots on target 3.70
8.14 Shots faced 15.00
5.76 Corners 4.80
3.86 Corners against 5.30
10.38 Fouls 11.80
1.95 Yellow cards 1.80
1.00 1st-half goals scored 0.45
0.33 1st-half goals conceded 0.85

How often Full Time

57% Wins 25%
24% Draws 20%
19% Losses 55%
90% Over 0.5 goals 95%
81% Over 1.5 goals 90%
52% Over 2.5 goals 70%
29% Over 3.5 goals 40%
14% Over 4.5 goals 35%
5% Over 5.5 goals 15%
48% Both teams scored 65%
43% Clean sheets 10%
19% Failed to score 30%

How often Half Time

57% Wins 20%
24% Draws 45%
19% Losses 35%
76% Over 0.5 goals 65%
33% Over 1.5 goals 45%
10% Over 2.5 goals 20%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Burton away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
18.04.23 Exeter – Derby 1–2 (0–0) 3.403.302.20 2.05 1.80
15.04.23 Bristol Rvs – Derby 1–1 (0–1) 4.333.601.83 1.95 1.90
10.04.23 Derby – Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 (1–0) 1.673.755.50 2.05 1.80
07.04.23 Forest Green – Derby 0–2 (0–1) 5.754.001.60 2.05 1.75
01.04.23 Derby – Ipswich 0–2 (0–1) 3.503.252.20 2.08 1.73
25.03.23 Peterboro – Derby 2–0 (0–0) 2.553.502.63 1.93 1.93
18.03.23 Derby – Fleetwood Town 0–2 (0–2) 1.444.337.50 1.90 1.95
11.03.23 Oxford – Derby 2–3 (1–2) 3.603.502.00 1.98 1.88
07.03.23 Plymouth – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 2.603.602.55 1.95 1.90
04.03.23 Derby – Shrewsbury 2–2 (2–0) 1.654.005.25 2.08 1.73

Burton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
18.04.23 Burton – Bolton 1–1 (0–1) 3.403.502.10 2.05 1.80
15.04.23 Burton – Sheffield Weds 3–2 (3–1) 5.504.001.62 1.85 2.00
10.04.23 Charlton – Burton 3–2 (2–1) 1.913.504.20 1.90 1.95
07.04.23 Burton – Barnsley 2–1 (0–0) 3.753.601.95 1.95 1.90
01.04.23 Cheltenham – Burton 0–0 (0–0) 2.303.253.20 1.98 1.88
18.03.23 Port Vale – Burton 2–3 (1–1) 1.913.604.00 2.10 1.70
14.03.23 Burton – Peterboro 2–5 (1–3) 3.203.402.25 2.00 1.85
11.03.23 Burton – Wycombe 2–1 (2–0) 2.883.402.45 2.00 1.80
04.03.23 Ipswich – Burton 4–0 (3–0) 1.335.0010.00 1.65 2.20
25.02.23 Burton – Accrington 0–0 (0–0) 1.834.004.00 1.90 1.95

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.04.23 Derby – Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 (1–0) 1.673.755.50 2.05 1.80
01.04.23 Derby – Ipswich 0–2 (0–1) 3.503.252.20 2.08 1.73
18.03.23 Derby – Fleetwood Town 0–2 (0–2) 1.444.337.50 1.90 1.95
04.03.23 Derby – Shrewsbury 2–2 (2–0) 1.654.005.25 2.08 1.73
28.02.23 Derby – Cheltenham 2–0 (1–0) 1.334.7510.00 1.75 2.05
18.02.23 Derby – Charlton 2–0 (1–0) 1.574.006.00 1.88 1.98
14.02.23 Derby – Lincoln 1–1 (0–1) 1.444.337.50 2.00 1.85
04.02.23 Derby – Morecambe 5–0 (1–0) 1.335.0010.00 1.70 2.10
21.01.23 Derby – Bolton 2–1 (1–0) 1.953.603.80 2.05 1.75
02.01.23 Derby – Accrington 4–0 (3–0) 1.624.005.50 1.93 1.93

Burton away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.04.23 Charlton – Burton 3–2 (2–1) 1.913.504.20 1.90 1.95
01.04.23 Cheltenham – Burton 0–0 (0–0) 2.303.253.20 1.98 1.88
18.03.23 Port Vale – Burton 2–3 (1–1) 1.913.604.00 2.10 1.70
04.03.23 Ipswich – Burton 4–0 (3–0) 1.335.0010.00 1.65 2.20
18.02.23 Bristol Rvs – Burton 1–2 (1–1) 2.203.403.40 1.88 1.98
14.02.23 Portsmouth – Burton 1–0 (0–0) 1.753.755.00 1.93 1.93
04.02.23 Fleetwood Town – Burton 2–3 (0–0) 2.153.303.50 2.08 1.73
01.01.23 Morecambe – Burton 5–0 (2–0) 3.103.502.25 1.95 1.90
29.12.22 Forest Green – Burton 1–2 (0–1) 2.603.502.60 1.90 1.95
17.12.22 Barnsley – Burton 2–0 (1–0) 1.913.603.75 1.95 1.90

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Derby winsDrawsBurton wins
1matches
2.00goals / match
0%over 2.5
100%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.12.22E2 Burton – Derby 1–1 (0–1) 3.303.302.25 2.00 1.85

England League One table 2022/2023, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Plymouth 42 27 8 7 73 45 +28 89
2 Ipswich 42 25 13 4 87 33 +54 88
3 Sheffield Weds 43 25 12 6 75 36 +39 87
4 Barnsley 42 25 7 10 74 38 +36 82
5 Peterboro 43 23 4 16 73 51 +22 73
6 Bolton 42 20 12 10 56 33 +23 72
7 Derby 43 20 12 11 65 44 +21 72
8 Wycombe 43 20 8 15 57 44 +13 68
9 Portsmouth 43 16 17 10 57 47 +10 65
10 Charlton 43 15 13 15 63 59 +4 58
11 Lincoln 42 12 20 10 42 43 -1 56
12 Shrewsbury 42 16 8 18 50 55 -5 56
13 Fleetwood Town 43 13 15 15 50 47 +3 54
14 Exeter 43 14 11 18 60 58 +2 53
15 Bristol Rvs 41 14 10 17 55 64 -9 52
16 Burton 41 13 10 18 55 77 -22 49
17 Cheltenham 42 12 11 19 37 54 -17 47
18 Port Vale 43 12 10 21 43 65 -22 46
19 Milton Keynes Dons 43 11 10 22 40 61 -21 43
20 Oxford 42 9 14 19 41 52 -11 41
21 Cambridge 42 11 7 24 36 63 -27 40
22 Morecambe 43 8 14 21 39 71 -32 38
23 Accrington 42 9 11 22 36 73 -37 38
24 Forest Green 43 6 9 28 30 81 -51 27
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Plymouth 20 17 1 2 38 15 +23 52
2 Ipswich 22 15 6 1 54 13 +41 51
3 Sheffield Weds 21 14 6 1 46 15 +31 48
4 Barnsley 20 15 1 4 43 19 +24 46
5 Peterboro 21 13 3 5 38 22 +16 42
6 Derby 21 12 5 4 38 19 +19 41
7 Bolton 20 12 5 3 29 12 +17 41
8 Wycombe 21 11 5 5 32 19 +13 38
9 Portsmouth 21 8 10 3 31 20 +11 34
10 Shrewsbury 21 10 3 8 30 28 +2 33
11 Exeter 22 9 5 8 33 25 +8 32
12 Lincoln 21 6 14 1 21 16 +5 32
13 Charlton 21 8 7 6 39 26 +13 31
14 Burton 21 8 6 7 27 33 -6 30
15 Morecambe 22 7 8 7 27 29 -2 29
16 Cambridge 22 8 4 10 22 26 -4 28
17 Cheltenham 21 7 7 7 20 24 -4 28
18 Port Vale 21 7 5 9 20 27 -7 26
19 Fleetwood Town 21 6 7 8 22 23 -1 25
20 Bristol Rvs 22 6 7 9 25 33 -8 25
21 Accrington 22 6 5 11 26 37 -11 23
22 Oxford 21 5 5 11 24 29 -5 20
23 Milton Keynes Dons 22 4 6 12 16 29 -13 18
24 Forest Green 22 5 2 15 15 39 -24 17
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield Weds 22 11 6 5 29 21 +8 39
2 Ipswich 20 10 7 3 33 20 +13 37
3 Plymouth 22 10 7 5 35 30 +5 37
4 Barnsley 22 10 6 6 31 19 +12 36
5 Peterboro 22 10 1 11 35 29 +6 31
6 Bolton 22 8 7 7 27 21 +6 31
7 Derby 22 8 7 7 27 25 +2 31
8 Portsmouth 22 8 7 7 26 27 -1 31
9 Wycombe 22 9 3 10 25 25 0 30
10 Fleetwood Town 22 7 8 7 28 24 +4 29
11 Bristol Rvs 19 8 3 8 30 31 -1 27
12 Charlton 22 7 6 9 24 33 -9 27
13 Milton Keynes Dons 21 7 4 10 24 32 -8 25
14 Lincoln 21 6 6 9 21 27 -6 24
15 Shrewsbury 21 6 5 10 20 27 -7 23
16 Exeter 21 5 6 10 27 33 -6 21
17 Oxford 21 4 9 8 17 23 -6 21
18 Port Vale 22 5 5 12 23 38 -15 20
19 Cheltenham 21 5 4 12 17 30 -13 19
20 Burton 20 5 4 11 28 44 -16 19
21 Accrington 20 3 6 11 10 36 -26 15
22 Cambridge 20 3 3 14 14 37 -23 12
23 Forest Green 21 1 7 13 15 42 -27 10
24 Morecambe 21 1 6 14 12 42 -30 9

Derby   Burton

Under / Over goals 2022/2023, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 5 Peterboro 43 17 26 1.7 1.2 23 4 16 73 51 73
2 16 Burton 41 17 24 1.3 1.9 13 10 18 55 77 49
3 1 Plymouth 42 19 23 1.7 1.1 27 8 7 73 45 89
4 2 Ipswich 42 19 23 2.1 0.8 25 13 4 87 33 88
5 4 Barnsley 42 19 23 1.8 0.9 25 7 10 74 38 82
6 15 Bristol Rvs 41 18 23 1.3 1.6 14 10 17 55 64 52
7 18 Port Vale 43 21 22 1.0 1.5 12 10 21 43 65 46
8 12 Shrewsbury 42 21 21 1.2 1.3 16 8 18 50 55 56
9 22 Morecambe 43 22 21 0.9 1.7 8 14 21 39 71 38
10 7 Derby 43 23 20 1.5 1.0 20 12 11 65 44 72
11 10 Charlton 43 23 20 1.5 1.4 15 13 15 63 59 58
12 14 Exeter 43 23 20 1.4 1.3 14 11 18 60 58 53
13 23 Accrington 42 22 20 0.9 1.7 9 11 22 36 73 38
14 24 Forest Green 43 23 20 0.7 1.9 6 9 28 30 81 27
15 13 Fleetwood Town 43 24 19 1.2 1.1 13 15 15 50 47 54
16 3 Sheffield Weds 43 25 18 1.7 0.8 25 12 6 75 36 87
17 8 Wycombe 43 25 18 1.3 1.0 20 8 15 57 44 68
18 21 Cambridge 42 24 18 0.9 1.5 11 7 24 36 63 40
19 9 Portsmouth 43 26 17 1.3 1.1 16 17 10 57 47 65
20 17 Cheltenham 42 25 17 0.9 1.3 12 11 19 37 54 47
21 19 Milton Keynes Dons 43 27 16 0.9 1.4 11 10 22 40 61 43
22 20 Oxford 42 26 16 1.0 1.2 9 14 19 41 52 41
23 6 Bolton 42 27 15 1.3 0.8 20 12 10 56 33 72
24 11 Lincoln 42 30 12 1.0 1.0 12 20 10 42 43 56
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 2 Ipswich 22 8 14 2.5 0.6 15 6 1 54 13 51
2 4 Barnsley 20 7 13 2.1 0.9 15 1 4 43 19 46
3 5 Peterboro 21 8 13 1.8 1.0 13 3 5 38 22 42
4 12 Shrewsbury 21 9 12 1.4 1.3 10 3 8 30 28 33
5 7 Derby 21 10 11 1.8 0.9 12 5 4 38 19 41
6 14 Exeter 22 11 11 1.5 1.1 9 5 8 33 25 32
7 20 Oxford 21 10 11 1.1 1.4 5 5 11 24 29 20
8 23 Accrington 22 11 11 1.2 1.7 6 5 11 26 37 23
9 24 Forest Green 22 11 11 0.7 1.8 5 2 15 15 39 17
10 1 Plymouth 20 10 10 1.9 0.8 17 1 2 38 15 52
11 3 Sheffield Weds 21 11 10 2.2 0.7 14 6 1 46 15 48
12 10 Charlton 21 11 10 1.9 1.2 8 7 6 39 26 31
13 15 Bristol Rvs 22 12 10 1.1 1.5 6 7 9 25 33 25
14 16 Burton 21 11 10 1.3 1.6 8 6 7 27 33 30
15 22 Morecambe 22 12 10 1.2 1.3 7 8 7 27 29 29
16 9 Portsmouth 21 12 9 1.5 1.0 8 10 3 31 20 34
17 13 Fleetwood Town 21 12 9 1.0 1.1 6 7 8 22 23 25
18 18 Port Vale 21 12 9 1.0 1.3 7 5 9 20 27 26
19 21 Cambridge 22 13 9 1.0 1.2 8 4 10 22 26 28
20 8 Wycombe 21 13 8 1.5 0.9 11 5 5 32 19 38
21 17 Cheltenham 21 13 8 1.0 1.1 7 7 7 20 24 28
22 6 Bolton 20 13 7 1.4 0.6 12 5 3 29 12 41
23 19 Milton Keynes Dons 22 16 6 0.7 1.3 4 6 12 16 29 18
24 11 Lincoln 21 17 4 1.0 0.8 6 14 1 21 16 32
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 16 Burton 20 6 14 1.4 2.2 5 4 11 28 44 19
2 1 Plymouth 22 9 13 1.6 1.4 10 7 5 35 30 37
3 5 Peterboro 22 9 13 1.6 1.3 10 1 11 35 29 31
4 15 Bristol Rvs 19 6 13 1.6 1.6 8 3 8 30 31 27
5 18 Port Vale 22 9 13 1.0 1.7 5 5 12 23 38 20
6 22 Morecambe 21 10 11 0.6 2.0 1 6 14 12 42 9
7 4 Barnsley 22 12 10 1.4 0.9 10 6 6 31 19 36
8 8 Wycombe 22 12 10 1.1 1.1 9 3 10 25 25 30
9 10 Charlton 22 12 10 1.1 1.5 7 6 9 24 33 27
10 13 Fleetwood Town 22 12 10 1.3 1.1 7 8 7 28 24 29
11 19 Milton Keynes Dons 21 11 10 1.1 1.5 7 4 10 24 32 25
12 2 Ipswich 20 11 9 1.6 1.0 10 7 3 33 20 37
13 7 Derby 22 13 9 1.2 1.1 8 7 7 27 25 31
14 12 Shrewsbury 21 12 9 1.0 1.3 6 5 10 20 27 23
15 14 Exeter 21 12 9 1.3 1.6 5 6 10 27 33 21
16 17 Cheltenham 21 12 9 0.8 1.4 5 4 12 17 30 19
17 21 Cambridge 20 11 9 0.7 1.9 3 3 14 14 37 12
18 23 Accrington 20 11 9 0.5 1.8 3 6 11 10 36 15
19 24 Forest Green 21 12 9 0.7 2.0 1 7 13 15 42 10
20 3 Sheffield Weds 22 14 8 1.3 1.0 11 6 5 29 21 39
21 6 Bolton 22 14 8 1.2 1.0 8 7 7 27 21 31
22 9 Portsmouth 22 14 8 1.2 1.2 8 7 7 26 27 31
23 11 Lincoln 21 13 8 1.0 1.3 6 6 9 21 27 24
24 20 Oxford 21 16 5 0.8 1.1 4 9 8 17 23 21

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51