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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England League One · ·Referee: J Simpson

Derby 2–1 Bolton

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2022/2023

Home ✓ 1.95 fair 2.27
Draw 3.60 fair 3.59
Away 3.80 fair 3.55
Under 2.5 1.75 fair 1.68
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.05 fair 2.47

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Bolton
8 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 3
5 Corners 4
8 Fouls 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✗ Goals missed ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (304 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score No fair 1.85
Expected goals 1.31 – 0.99
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawBolton
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–0 13.1% 1–1 13% 0–0 10%

Statistics 2022/2023, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
1.76points / match
1.44scored / match
0.76conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 25 played · 36:19
Bolton before this match, all matches
1.69points / match
1.27scored / match
0.77conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 26 played · 33:20
Derby all matches all matches Bolton

Per match

1.44 Goals scored 1.27
0.76 Goals conceded 0.77
2.20 Total goals 2.04
13.76 Shots 11.88
4.68 Shots on target 3.54
9.88 Shots faced 9.46
5.92 Corners 5.88
4.56 Corners against 4.15
10.04 Fouls 10.81
1.96 Yellow cards 1.62
0.84 1st-half goals scored 0.54
0.28 1st-half goals conceded 0.46

How often Full Time

48% Wins 46%
32% Draws 31%
20% Losses 23%
76% Over 0.5 goals 81%
60% Over 1.5 goals 65%
44% Over 2.5 goals 35%
24% Over 3.5 goals 15%
12% Over 4.5 goals 8%
4% Over 5.5 goals 0%
40% Both teams scored 35%
48% Clean sheets 50%
36% Failed to score 35%

How often Half Time

40% Wins 31%
48% Draws 38%
12% Losses 31%
56% Over 0.5 goals 69%
32% Over 1.5 goals 27%
12% Over 2.5 goals 4%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Bolton all matches
Derby before this match, at home
2.17points / match
1.92scored / match
0.83conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 23:10
Bolton before this match, away
1.33points / match
1.17scored / match
1.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 14:12
Derby at home away Bolton

Per match

1.92 Goals scored 1.17
0.83 Goals conceded 1.00
2.75 Total goals 2.17
13.58 Shots 10.92
5.00 Shots on target 3.08
9.08 Shots faced 10.33
5.92 Corners 6.25
4.25 Corners against 4.50
11.08 Fouls 11.58
2.08 Yellow cards 1.58
1.17 1st-half goals scored 0.42
0.25 1st-half goals conceded 0.58

How often Full Time

67% Wins 33%
17% Draws 33%
17% Losses 33%
83% Over 0.5 goals 83%
67% Over 1.5 goals 67%
67% Over 2.5 goals 33%
33% Over 3.5 goals 17%
17% Over 4.5 goals 17%
8% Over 5.5 goals 0%
50% Both teams scored 42%
50% Clean sheets 33%
17% Failed to score 42%

How often Half Time

50% Wins 17%
42% Draws 42%
8% Losses 42%
58% Over 0.5 goals 75%
42% Over 1.5 goals 25%
17% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Bolton away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
14.01.23 Cheltenham – Derby 2–3 (1–2) 4.753.751.75 2.05 1.80
02.01.23 Derby – Accrington 4–0 (3–0) 1.624.005.50 1.93 1.93
30.12.22 Derby – Cambridge 1–0 (0–0) 1.504.206.50 2.00 1.80
27.12.22 Bolton – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 2.403.402.90 2.02 1.83
17.12.22 Derby – Forest Green 4–0 (2–0) 1.444.507.50 1.73 2.08
10.12.22 Burton – Derby 1–1 (0–1) 3.303.302.25 2.00 1.85
03.12.22 Derby – Sheffield Weds 0–0 (0–0) 3.003.402.30 2.05 1.75
18.11.22 Portsmouth – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 2.373.402.90 1.95 1.90
12.11.22 Milton Keynes Dons – Derby 1–3 (1–1) 3.803.502.00 1.98 1.88
01.11.22 Morecambe – Derby 1–1 (1–0) 4.503.401.80 1.98 1.88

Bolton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
14.01.23 Bolton – Portsmouth 3–0 (1–0) 2.053.603.50 2.02 1.83
07.01.23 Bolton – Plymouth 0–0 (0–0) 2.103.503.40 1.88 1.98
02.01.23 Barnsley – Bolton 0–3 (0–2) 2.203.403.30 2.10 1.70
30.12.22 Lincoln – Bolton 1–1 (1–0) 3.253.302.15 2.00 1.85
27.12.22 Bolton – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 2.403.402.90 2.02 1.83
17.12.22 Bolton – Exeter 2–0 (2–0) 2.053.503.60 1.93 1.93
10.12.22 Shrewsbury – Bolton 3–2 (1–1) 3.603.202.15 2.15 1.67
02.12.22 Bolton – Bristol Rvs 1–1 (0–1) 1.723.605.00 1.75 2.05
19.11.22 Fleetwood Town – Bolton 1–2 (1–0) 3.203.402.25 2.02 1.83
12.11.22 Cambridge – Bolton 0–0 (0–0) 3.753.502.00 1.98 1.88

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
02.01.23 Derby – Accrington 4–0 (3–0) 1.624.005.50 1.93 1.93
30.12.22 Derby – Cambridge 1–0 (0–0) 1.504.206.50 2.00 1.80
17.12.22 Derby – Forest Green 4–0 (2–0) 1.444.507.50 1.73 2.08
03.12.22 Derby – Sheffield Weds 0–0 (0–0) 3.003.402.30 2.05 1.75
29.10.22 Derby – Bristol Rvs 4–2 (4–2) 1.723.804.75 1.75 2.05
25.10.22 Derby – Exeter 0–0 (0–0) 1.903.604.00 1.88 1.98
08.10.22 Derby – Port Vale 1–2 (1–0) 1.663.805.50 2.15 1.73
17.09.22 Derby – Wycombe 2–1 (0–1) 1.903.504.00 1.95 1.90
03.09.22 Derby – Plymouth 2–3 (2–0) 1.853.504.50 2.05 1.75
27.08.22 Derby – Peterboro 2–1 (0–0) 1.903.603.80 1.85 2.00

Bolton away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
02.01.23 Barnsley – Bolton 0–3 (0–2) 2.203.403.30 2.10 1.70
30.12.22 Lincoln – Bolton 1–1 (1–0) 3.253.302.15 2.00 1.85
10.12.22 Shrewsbury – Bolton 3–2 (1–1) 3.603.202.15 2.15 1.67
19.11.22 Fleetwood Town – Bolton 1–2 (1–0) 3.203.402.25 2.02 1.83
12.11.22 Cambridge – Bolton 0–0 (0–0) 3.753.502.00 1.98 1.88
22.10.22 Accrington – Bolton 2–3 (1–0) 3.003.252.40 1.93 1.93
08.10.22 Forest Green – Bolton 1–0 (1–0) 4.503.601.80 1.98 1.88
04.10.22 Cheltenham – Bolton 1–0 (0–0) 4.203.401.90 2.05 1.75
13.09.22 Milton Keynes Dons – Bolton 0–2 (0–1) 3.003.402.37 2.15 1.66
27.08.22 Plymouth – Bolton 2–0 (1–0) 2.373.303.00 2.02 1.83

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Derby winsDrawsBolton wins
1matches
0.00goals / match
0%over 2.5
0%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
27.12.22E2 Bolton – Derby 0–0 (0–0) 2.403.402.90 2.02 1.83

England League One table 2022/2023, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Plymouth 27 17 7 3 47 27 +20 58
2 Sheffield Weds 26 16 7 3 46 18 +28 55
3 Ipswich 26 14 9 3 48 26 +22 51
4 Derby 25 12 8 5 36 19 +17 44
5 Bolton 26 12 8 6 33 20 +13 44
6 Barnsley 24 12 4 8 30 23 +7 40
7 Peterboro 25 12 2 11 41 31 +10 38
8 Wycombe 26 11 5 10 33 27 +6 38
9 Bristol Rvs 27 10 7 10 42 45 -3 37
10 Exeter 26 9 8 9 39 37 +2 35
11 Port Vale 25 10 5 10 27 34 -7 35
12 Charlton 26 8 10 8 40 36 +4 34
13 Oxford 25 8 8 9 31 28 +3 32
14 Shrewsbury 25 9 5 11 27 29 -2 32
15 Portsmouth 23 7 10 6 29 30 -1 31
16 Lincoln 25 6 12 7 24 30 -6 30
17 Fleetwood Town 25 6 11 8 29 27 +2 29
18 Cheltenham 25 8 4 13 21 30 -9 28
19 Accrington 24 6 7 11 23 38 -15 25
20 Morecambe 25 5 9 11 26 35 -9 24
21 Cambridge 25 7 3 15 22 41 -19 24
22 Milton Keynes Dons 25 6 4 15 23 36 -13 22
23 Burton 26 5 7 14 32 54 -22 22
24 Forest Green 26 5 6 15 22 50 -28 21
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Plymouth 13 12 0 1 25 9 +16 36
2 Sheffield Weds 13 8 4 1 30 11 +19 28
3 Bolton 14 8 4 2 19 8 +11 28
4 Derby 12 8 2 2 23 10 +13 26
5 Ipswich 13 7 5 1 23 10 +13 26
6 Peterboro 12 8 1 3 24 9 +15 25
7 Charlton 14 6 5 3 26 17 +9 23
8 Barnsley 12 7 1 4 17 13 +4 22
9 Wycombe 13 6 3 4 19 13 +6 21
10 Exeter 13 5 4 4 19 17 +2 19
11 Bristol Rvs 13 5 4 4 21 22 -1 19
12 Port Vale 12 5 3 4 13 13 0 18
13 Morecambe 13 4 5 4 16 16 0 17
14 Shrewsbury 13 5 2 6 13 17 -4 17
15 Cambridge 13 5 2 6 12 16 -4 17
16 Lincoln 12 2 10 0 13 10 +3 16
17 Portsmouth 12 3 7 2 17 15 +2 16
18 Cheltenham 12 5 1 6 13 16 -3 16
19 Oxford 12 4 3 5 16 13 +3 15
20 Accrington 12 3 5 4 16 18 -2 14
21 Burton 13 3 4 6 14 23 -9 13
22 Forest Green 13 4 0 9 10 23 -13 12
23 Fleetwood Town 12 2 5 5 11 12 -1 11
24 Milton Keynes Dons 13 2 3 8 10 20 -10 9
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Sheffield Weds 13 8 3 2 16 7 +9 27
2 Ipswich 13 7 4 2 25 16 +9 25
3 Plymouth 14 5 7 2 22 18 +4 22
4 Derby 13 4 6 3 13 9 +4 18
5 Fleetwood Town 13 4 6 3 18 15 +3 18
6 Barnsley 12 5 3 4 13 10 +3 18
7 Bristol Rvs 14 5 3 6 21 23 -2 18
8 Oxford 13 4 5 4 15 15 0 17
9 Wycombe 13 5 2 6 14 14 0 17
10 Port Vale 13 5 2 6 14 21 -7 17
11 Bolton 12 4 4 4 14 12 +2 16
12 Exeter 13 4 4 5 20 20 0 16
13 Shrewsbury 12 4 3 5 14 12 +2 15
14 Portsmouth 11 4 3 4 12 15 -3 15
15 Lincoln 13 4 2 7 11 20 -9 14
16 Milton Keynes Dons 12 4 1 7 13 16 -3 13
17 Peterboro 13 4 1 8 17 22 -5 13
18 Cheltenham 13 3 3 7 8 14 -6 12
19 Charlton 12 2 5 5 14 19 -5 11
20 Accrington 12 3 2 7 7 20 -13 11
21 Burton 13 2 3 8 18 31 -13 9
22 Forest Green 13 1 6 6 12 27 -15 9
23 Morecambe 12 1 4 7 10 19 -9 7
24 Cambridge 12 2 1 9 10 25 -15 7

Derby   Bolton

Under / Over goals 2022/2023, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 9 Bristol Rvs 27 10 17 1.6 1.7 10 7 10 42 45 37
2 1 Plymouth 27 12 15 1.7 1.0 17 7 3 47 27 58
3 7 Peterboro 25 10 15 1.6 1.2 12 2 11 41 31 38
4 23 Burton 26 11 15 1.2 2.1 5 7 14 32 54 22
5 3 Ipswich 26 12 14 1.8 1.0 14 9 3 48 26 51
6 24 Forest Green 26 12 14 0.8 1.9 5 6 15 22 50 21
7 21 Cambridge 25 12 13 0.9 1.6 7 3 15 22 41 24
8 8 Wycombe 26 14 12 1.3 1.0 11 5 10 33 27 38
9 10 Exeter 26 14 12 1.5 1.4 9 8 9 39 37 35
10 11 Port Vale 25 13 12 1.1 1.4 10 5 10 27 34 35
11 12 Charlton 26 14 12 1.5 1.4 8 10 8 40 36 34
12 17 Fleetwood Town 25 13 12 1.2 1.1 6 11 8 29 27 29
13 20 Morecambe 25 13 12 1.0 1.4 5 9 11 26 35 24
14 4 Derby 25 14 11 1.4 0.8 12 8 5 36 19 44
15 13 Oxford 25 14 11 1.2 1.1 8 8 9 31 28 32
16 14 Shrewsbury 25 14 11 1.1 1.2 9 5 11 27 29 32
17 22 Milton Keynes Dons 25 14 11 0.9 1.4 6 4 15 23 36 22
18 2 Sheffield Weds 26 16 10 1.8 0.7 16 7 3 46 18 55
19 6 Barnsley 24 14 10 1.2 1.0 12 4 8 30 23 40
20 15 Portsmouth 23 13 10 1.3 1.3 7 10 6 29 30 31
21 19 Accrington 24 14 10 1.0 1.6 6 7 11 23 38 25
22 5 Bolton 26 17 9 1.3 0.8 12 8 6 33 20 44
23 18 Cheltenham 25 16 9 0.8 1.2 8 4 13 21 30 28
24 16 Lincoln 25 18 7 1.0 1.2 6 12 7 24 30 30
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 4 Derby 12 4 8 1.9 0.8 8 2 2 23 10 26
2 9 Bristol Rvs 13 5 8 1.6 1.7 5 4 4 21 22 19
3 24 Forest Green 13 5 8 0.8 1.8 4 0 9 10 23 12
4 1 Plymouth 13 6 7 1.9 0.7 12 0 1 25 9 36
5 2 Sheffield Weds 13 6 7 2.3 0.8 8 4 1 30 11 28
6 7 Peterboro 12 5 7 2.0 0.8 8 1 3 24 9 25
7 3 Ipswich 13 7 6 1.8 0.8 7 5 1 23 10 26
8 6 Barnsley 12 6 6 1.4 1.1 7 1 4 17 13 22
9 8 Wycombe 13 7 6 1.5 1.0 6 3 4 19 13 21
10 10 Exeter 13 7 6 1.5 1.3 5 4 4 19 17 19
11 12 Charlton 14 8 6 1.9 1.2 6 5 3 26 17 23
12 13 Oxford 12 6 6 1.3 1.1 4 3 5 16 13 15
13 14 Shrewsbury 13 7 6 1.0 1.3 5 2 6 13 17 17
14 15 Portsmouth 12 6 6 1.4 1.2 3 7 2 17 15 16
15 20 Morecambe 13 7 6 1.2 1.2 4 5 4 16 16 17
16 23 Burton 13 7 6 1.1 1.8 3 4 6 14 23 13
17 5 Bolton 14 9 5 1.4 0.6 8 4 2 19 8 28
18 11 Port Vale 12 7 5 1.1 1.1 5 3 4 13 13 18
19 17 Fleetwood Town 12 7 5 0.9 1.0 2 5 5 11 12 11
20 18 Cheltenham 12 7 5 1.1 1.3 5 1 6 13 16 16
21 19 Accrington 12 7 5 1.3 1.5 3 5 4 16 18 14
22 21 Cambridge 13 8 5 0.9 1.2 5 2 6 12 16 17
23 22 Milton Keynes Dons 13 8 5 0.8 1.5 2 3 8 10 20 9
24 16 Lincoln 12 10 2 1.1 0.8 2 10 0 13 10 16
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 9 Bristol Rvs 14 5 9 1.5 1.6 5 3 6 21 23 18
2 23 Burton 13 4 9 1.4 2.4 2 3 8 18 31 9
3 1 Plymouth 14 6 8 1.6 1.3 5 7 2 22 18 22
4 3 Ipswich 13 5 8 1.9 1.2 7 4 2 25 16 25
5 7 Peterboro 13 5 8 1.3 1.7 4 1 8 17 22 13
6 21 Cambridge 12 4 8 0.8 2.1 2 1 9 10 25 7
7 11 Port Vale 13 6 7 1.1 1.6 5 2 6 14 21 17
8 17 Fleetwood Town 13 6 7 1.4 1.2 4 6 3 18 15 18
9 8 Wycombe 13 7 6 1.1 1.1 5 2 6 14 14 17
10 10 Exeter 13 7 6 1.5 1.5 4 4 5 20 20 16
11 12 Charlton 12 6 6 1.2 1.6 2 5 5 14 19 11
12 20 Morecambe 12 6 6 0.8 1.6 1 4 7 10 19 7
13 22 Milton Keynes Dons 12 6 6 1.1 1.3 4 1 7 13 16 13
14 24 Forest Green 13 7 6 0.9 2.1 1 6 6 12 27 9
15 13 Oxford 13 8 5 1.2 1.2 4 5 4 15 15 17
16 14 Shrewsbury 12 7 5 1.2 1.0 4 3 5 14 12 15
17 16 Lincoln 13 8 5 0.8 1.5 4 2 7 11 20 14
18 19 Accrington 12 7 5 0.6 1.7 3 2 7 7 20 11
19 5 Bolton 12 8 4 1.2 1.0 4 4 4 14 12 16
20 6 Barnsley 12 8 4 1.1 0.8 5 3 4 13 10 18
21 15 Portsmouth 11 7 4 1.1 1.4 4 3 4 12 15 15
22 18 Cheltenham 13 9 4 0.6 1.1 3 3 7 8 14 12
23 2 Sheffield Weds 13 10 3 1.2 0.5 8 3 2 16 7 27
24 4 Derby 13 10 3 1.0 0.7 4 6 3 13 9 18

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51