Nacional 4–0 Rio Ave – Portugal Primeira Liga, 25 Jan 2026

Match facts

Nacional Rio Ave

14 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 6

5 Corners 5

18 Fouls 6

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (166 league matches this season so far).

Result Nacional to win

Goals Over 2.5

Both teams score Yes fair 1.63

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.45

Home / Draw / Away

42% 24% 34%

NacionalDrawRio Ave

Under / Over 2.5 goals

41% 59%

Under 2.5Over 2.5

Both teams to score

39% 61%

NoYes

Total goals in the match

5% 0

14% 1

22% 2

22% 3

17% 4

20% 5+

Most likely scores

1–1 10.9% 2–1 8.8% 1–2 7.9%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Nacional before this match, all matches

0.94points / match

1.22scored / match

1.56conceded / match

4 5 9

WonDrawnLost 18 played · 22:28

Rio Ave before this match, all matches

1.11points / match

1.22scored / match

1.72conceded / match

4 8 6

WonDrawnLost 18 played · 22:31

Nacional all matches all matches Rio Ave

Per match

1.22 Goals scored 1.22

1.56 Goals conceded 1.72

2.78 Total goals 2.94

11.89 Shots 9.28

3.94 Shots on target 3.78

15.56 Shots faced 17.50

4.00 Corners 3.78

6.33 Corners against 7.17

14.89 Fouls 13.72

2.89 Yellow cards 2.78

0.56 1st-half goals scored 0.50

0.61 1st-half goals conceded 0.72

How often Full Time

22% Wins 22%

28% Draws 44%

50% Losses 33%

100% Over 0.5 goals 94%

78% Over 1.5 goals 89%

50% Over 2.5 goals 61%

28% Over 3.5 goals 39%

17% Over 4.5 goals 6%

6% Over 5.5 goals 6%

67% Both teams scored 61%

11% Clean sheets 11%

22% Failed to score 33%

How often Half Time

28% Wins 28%

44% Draws 33%

28% Losses 39%

72% Over 0.5 goals 78%

33% Over 1.5 goals 39%

6% Over 2.5 goals 6%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Nacional all matches

1

D

1

L

1

D

1

2

L

1

L

3

1

W

2

D

1

2

L

3

D

1

2

L

Rio Ave all matches

2

1

W

4

L

1

D

1

D

2

1

W

1

L

2

D

4

L

3

1

W

2

L

Nacional before this match, at home

0.88points / match

1.50scored / match

2.13conceded / match

2 1 5

WonDrawnLost 8 played · 12:17

Rio Ave before this match, away

1.22points / match

1.33scored / match

1.78conceded / match

2 5 2

WonDrawnLost 9 played · 12:16

Nacional at home away Rio Ave

Per match

1.50 Goals scored 1.33

2.13 Goals conceded 1.78

3.63 Total goals 3.11

10.63 Shots 9.33

4.00 Shots on target 3.56

19.13 Shots faced 18.00

4.00 Corners 3.78

8.38 Corners against 7.44

13.88 Fouls 15.00

3.25 Yellow cards 3.00

0.50 1st-half goals scored 0.33

0.75 1st-half goals conceded 0.44

How often Full Time

25% Wins 22%

13% Draws 56%

63% Losses 22%

100% Over 0.5 goals 89%

88% Over 1.5 goals 89%

75% Over 2.5 goals 67%

50% Over 3.5 goals 44%

38% Over 4.5 goals 11%

13% Over 5.5 goals 11%

75% Both teams scored 78%

0% Clean sheets 11%

25% Failed to score 22%

How often Half Time

13% Wins 22%

63% Draws 44%

25% Losses 33%

63% Over 0.5 goals 67%

38% Over 1.5 goals 11%

13% Over 2.5 goals 0%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Nacional at home

1

2

L

3

D

2

L

1

4

L

1

2

L

3

2

W

1

L

1

2

L

3

1

W

3

D

Rio Ave away

3

D

3

D

1

3

L

1

D

2

1

W

1

D

2

1

W

2

D

4

L

Last 10 matches before this match

Nacional all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
17.01.26	Gil Vicente – Nacional	2–1 (1–1)	1.61	3.60	5.50	2.00	1.80
11.01.26	Nacional – Santa Clara	3–3 (2–2)	2.70	3.00	2.70	2.50	1.50
02.01.26	Guimaraes – Nacional	2–1 (0–0)	1.81	3.30	4.50	2.15	1.67
21.12.25	AVS – Nacional	2–2 (2–0)	3.20	3.30	2.20	2.15	1.67
15.12.25	Nacional – Tondela	3–1 (0–0)	2.30	3.05	3.05	2.10	1.70
07.12.25	Alverca – Nacional	1–0 (0–0)	2.05	3.20	3.60	2.20	1.65
29.11.25	Nacional – Benfica	1–2 (0–0)	7.00	5.00	1.35	1.70	2.10
09.11.25	Estrela – Nacional	1–1 (0–1)	2.70	3.20	2.50	2.15	1.67
01.11.25	Nacional – Famalicao	0–1 (0–1)	3.20	3.25	2.20	2.05	1.75
26.10.25	Estoril – Nacional	1–1 (0–1)	2.15	3.25	3.30	2.05	1.75

Rio Ave all matches

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
17.01.26	Rio Ave – Benfica	0–2 (0–2)	10.00	5.00	1.27	1.67	2.15
04.01.26	Rio Ave – Casa Pia	3–1 (0–0)	2.32	3.05	3.05	2.40	1.53
28.12.25	Sp Lisbon – Rio Ave	4–0 (1–0)	1.11	7.00	17.00	1.40	2.88
20.12.25	Gil Vicente – Rio Ave	2–2 (1–1)	1.68	3.50	5.00	2.10	1.70
13.12.25	Rio Ave – Guimaraes	0–1 (0–1)	2.65	3.20	2.55	2.05	1.75
06.12.25	AVS – Rio Ave	1–2 (0–1)	2.95	3.25	2.35	2.10	1.70
30.11.25	Rio Ave – Santa Clara	1–1 (1–1)	2.95	3.05	2.45	2.40	1.53
08.11.25	Alverca – Rio Ave	1–1 (0–1)	2.15	3.30	3.20	2.15	1.67
01.11.25	Rio Ave – Estoril	0–4 (0–2)	2.35	3.20	2.95	2.00	1.85
25.10.25	Estrela – Rio Ave	1–2 (1–0)	2.57	3.20	2.70	2.15	1.67

Nacional at home

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
11.01.26	Nacional – Santa Clara	3–3 (2–2)	2.70	3.00	2.70	2.50	1.50
15.12.25	Nacional – Tondela	3–1 (0–0)	2.30	3.05	3.05	2.10	1.70
29.11.25	Nacional – Benfica	1–2 (0–0)	7.00	5.00	1.35	1.70	2.10
01.11.25	Nacional – Famalicao	0–1 (0–1)	3.20	3.25	2.20	2.05	1.75
04.10.25	Nacional – Moreirense	3–2 (1–1)	2.32	3.10	3.10	2.35	1.57
20.09.25	Nacional – Arouca	1–2 (0–0)	2.45	3.10	2.85	2.08	1.73
23.08.25	Nacional – Sp Lisbon	1–4 (1–0)	9.00	6.00	1.27	1.50	2.50
09.08.25	Nacional – Gil Vicente	0–2 (0–2)	2.50	3.10	2.90	2.10	1.70
10.05.25	Nacional – Rio Ave	3–3 (0–3)	1.95	3.50	3.75	1.93	1.93
03.05.25	Nacional – Guimaraes	1–2 (0–1)	4.20	3.50	1.85	1.98	1.88

Rio Ave away

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
28.12.25	Sp Lisbon – Rio Ave	4–0 (1–0)	1.11	7.00	17.00	1.40	2.88
20.12.25	Gil Vicente – Rio Ave	2–2 (1–1)	1.68	3.50	5.00	2.10	1.70
06.12.25	AVS – Rio Ave	1–2 (0–1)	2.95	3.25	2.35	2.10	1.70
08.11.25	Alverca – Rio Ave	1–1 (0–1)	2.15	3.30	3.20	2.15	1.67
25.10.25	Estrela – Rio Ave	1–2 (1–0)	2.57	3.20	2.70	2.15	1.67
28.09.25	Famalicao – Rio Ave	0–0 (0–0)	1.76	3.80	4.10	2.00	1.85
23.09.25	Benfica – Rio Ave	1–1 (0–0)	1.17	7.00	11.00	1.40	2.88
13.09.25	Moreirense – Rio Ave	3–1 (0–0)	2.50	3.00	3.00	2.25	1.62
23.08.25	Arouca – Rio Ave	3–3 (1–0)	2.00	3.25	3.90	2.05	1.80
10.05.25	Nacional – Rio Ave	3–3 (0–3)	1.95	3.50	3.75	1.93	1.93

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

2 1

Nacional winsDrawsRio Ave wins

3matches

3.67goals / match

67%over 2.5

100%both scored

Date	Match	Score	1	X	2	O	U
17.08.25P1	Rio Ave – Nacional	1–1 (1–0)	2.25	3.20	3.20	2.05	1.75
10.05.25P1	Nacional – Rio Ave	3–3 (0–3)	1.95	3.50	3.75	1.93	1.93
29.12.24P1	Rio Ave – Nacional	2–1 (1–1)	2.20	3.10	3.50	2.08	1.73

Portugal Primeira Liga table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Porto	18	17	1	0	37	4	+33	52
2	Sp Lisbon	19	15	3	1	52	10	+42	48
3	Benfica	18	12	6	0	38	11	+27	42
4	Gil Vicente	18	8	7	3	24	13	+11	31
5	Sp Braga	18	8	6	4	32	18	+14	30
6	Moreirense	19	9	3	7	26	26	0	30
7	Famalicao	18	7	5	6	21	14	+7	26
8	Estoril	19	7	5	7	37	31	+6	26
9	Guimaraes	19	7	4	8	20	27	-7	25
10	Alverca	18	7	2	9	19	28	-9	23
11	Rio Ave	18	4	8	6	22	31	-9	20
12	Estrela	18	4	7	7	23	32	-9	19
13	Nacional	18	4	5	9	22	28	-6	17
14	Santa Clara	19	4	5	10	14	21	-7	17
15	Arouca	19	4	5	10	20	44	-24	17
16	Casa Pia	19	3	6	10	20	38	-18	15
17	Tondela	18	3	3	12	12	30	-18	12
18	AVS	19	0	5	14	14	47	-33	5

Home – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	30	3	+27	22
2	Porto	8	7	1	0	16	2	+14	22
3	Benfica	9	5	4	0	19	7	+12	19
4	Moreirense	9	6	1	2	14	11	+3	19
5	Estoril	10	5	3	2	21	14	+7	18
6	Gil Vicente	9	5	2	2	12	7	+5	17
7	Alverca	10	5	1	4	9	14	-5	16
8	Guimaraes	10	4	3	3	14	14	0	15
9	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	14	7	+7	14
10	Famalicao	9	3	2	4	13	8	+5	11
11	Santa Clara	10	3	2	5	7	8	-1	11
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	13	17	-4	10
13	Rio Ave	9	2	3	4	10	15	-5	9
14	Arouca	10	2	3	5	11	21	-10	9
15	Nacional	8	2	1	5	12	17	-5	7
16	Tondela	9	1	2	6	6	13	-7	5
17	Casa Pia	9	0	5	4	10	18	-8	5
18	AVS	10	0	3	7	7	19	-12	3

Away – league table
#	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Porto	10	10	0	0	21	2	+19	30
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	22	7	+15	26
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	19	4	+15	23
4	Sp Braga	10	4	4	2	18	11	+7	16
5	Famalicao	9	4	3	2	8	6	+2	15
6	Gil Vicente	9	3	5	1	12	6	+6	14
7	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	12	15	-3	11
8	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	12	16	-4	11
9	Nacional	10	2	4	4	10	11	-1	10
10	Guimaraes	9	3	1	5	6	13	-7	10
11	Casa Pia	10	3	1	6	10	20	-10	10
12	Estrela	8	2	3	3	10	15	-5	9
13	Estoril	9	2	2	5	16	17	-1	8
14	Arouca	9	2	2	5	9	23	-14	8
15	Alverca	8	2	1	5	10	14	-4	7
16	Tondela	9	2	1	6	6	17	-11	7
17	Santa Clara	9	1	3	5	7	13	-6	6
18	AVS	9	0	2	7	7	28	-21	2

Nacional Rio Ave

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1	2	Sp Lisbon	19	6	13	2.7	0.5	15	3	1	52	10	48
2	8	Estoril	19	7	12	1.9	1.6	7	5	7	37	31	26
3	15	Arouca	19	7	12	1.1	2.3	4	5	10	20	44	17
4	18	AVS	19	7	12	0.7	2.5	0	5	14	14	47	5
5	3	Benfica	18	7	11	2.1	0.6	12	6	0	38	11	42
6	5	Sp Braga	18	7	11	1.8	1.0	8	6	4	32	18	30
7	6	Moreirense	19	8	11	1.4	1.4	9	3	7	26	26	30
8	11	Rio Ave	18	7	11	1.2	1.7	4	8	6	22	31	20
9	10	Alverca	18	8	10	1.1	1.6	7	2	9	19	28	23
10	12	Estrela	18	8	10	1.3	1.8	4	7	7	23	32	19
11	16	Casa Pia	19	9	10	1.1	2.0	3	6	10	20	38	15
12	17	Tondela	18	8	10	0.7	1.7	3	3	12	12	30	12
13	1	Porto	18	9	9	2.1	0.2	17	1	0	37	4	52
14	13	Nacional	18	9	9	1.2	1.6	4	5	9	22	28	17
15	9	Guimaraes	19	11	8	1.1	1.4	7	4	8	20	27	25
16	7	Famalicao	18	12	6	1.2	0.8	7	5	6	21	14	26
17	14	Santa Clara	19	13	6	0.7	1.1	4	5	10	14	21	17
18	4	Gil Vicente	18	13	5	1.3	0.7	8	7	3	24	13	31

Home – Under/Over goals
#
1	2	Sp Lisbon	9	2	7	3.3	0.3	7	1	1	30	3	22
2	6	Moreirense	9	3	6	1.6	1.2	6	1	2	14	11	19
3	9	Guimaraes	10	4	6	1.4	1.4	4	3	3	14	14	15
4	12	Estrela	10	4	6	1.3	1.7	2	4	4	13	17	10
5	13	Nacional	8	2	6	1.5	2.1	2	1	5	12	17	7
6	15	Arouca	10	4	6	1.1	2.1	2	3	5	11	21	9
7	3	Benfica	9	4	5	2.1	0.8	5	4	0	19	7	19
8	5	Sp Braga	8	3	5	1.8	0.9	4	2	2	14	7	14
9	7	Famalicao	9	4	5	1.4	0.9	3	2	4	13	8	11
10	8	Estoril	10	5	5	2.1	1.4	5	3	2	21	14	18
11	10	Alverca	10	5	5	0.9	1.4	5	1	4	9	14	16
12	11	Rio Ave	9	4	5	1.1	1.7	2	3	4	10	15	9
13	18	AVS	10	5	5	0.7	1.9	0	3	7	7	19	3
14	1	Porto	8	4	4	2.0	0.2	7	1	0	16	2	22
15	17	Tondela	9	5	4	0.7	1.4	1	2	6	6	13	5
16	14	Santa Clara	10	7	3	0.7	0.8	3	2	5	7	8	11
17	16	Casa Pia	9	6	3	1.1	2.0	0	5	4	10	18	5
18	4	Gil Vicente	9	7	2	1.3	0.8	5	2	2	12	7	17

Away – Under/Over goals
#
1	8	Estoril	9	2	7	1.8	1.9	2	2	5	16	17	8
2	16	Casa Pia	10	3	7	1.0	2.0	3	1	6	10	20	10
3	18	AVS	9	2	7	0.8	3.1	0	2	7	7	28	2
4	2	Sp Lisbon	10	4	6	2.2	0.7	8	2	0	22	7	26
5	3	Benfica	9	3	6	2.1	0.4	7	2	0	19	4	23
6	5	Sp Braga	10	4	6	1.8	1.1	4	4	2	18	11	16
7	11	Rio Ave	9	3	6	1.3	1.8	2	5	2	12	16	11
8	15	Arouca	9	3	6	1.0	2.6	2	2	5	9	23	8
9	17	Tondela	9	3	6	0.7	1.9	2	1	6	6	17	7
10	1	Porto	10	5	5	2.1	0.2	10	0	0	21	2	30
11	6	Moreirense	10	5	5	1.2	1.5	3	2	5	12	15	11
12	10	Alverca	8	3	5	1.2	1.8	2	1	5	10	14	7
13	12	Estrela	8	4	4	1.2	1.9	2	3	3	10	15	9
14	4	Gil Vicente	9	6	3	1.3	0.7	3	5	1	12	6	14
15	13	Nacional	10	7	3	1.0	1.1	2	4	4	10	11	10
16	14	Santa Clara	9	6	3	0.8	1.4	1	3	5	7	13	6
17	9	Guimaraes	9	7	2	0.7	1.4	3	1	5	6	13	10
18	7	Famalicao	9	8	1	0.9	0.7	4	3	2	8	6	15

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.