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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: J Smith

Derby 1–3 Leicester

Full time · half time 0–3 · season 2025/2026

Home 2.70 fair 2.43
Draw 3.20 fair 3.94
Away ✓ 2.57 fair 2.99
Under 2.5 1.62 fair 2.08
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.30 fair 1.92

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Derby Leicester
18 Shots 5
5 Shots on target 4
6 Corners 3
11 Fouls 11
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✗ Result missed ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (217 league matches this season so far).
Result Derby to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.79
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.29
Home / Draw / Away
DerbyDrawLeicester
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 12% 1–0 9.3% 2–1 8.8%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Derby before this match, all matches
1.44points / match
1.39scored / match
1.39conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 18 played · 25:25
Leicester before this match, all matches
1.33points / match
1.22scored / match
1.28conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 18 played · 22:23
Derby all matches all matches Leicester

Per match

1.39 Goals scored 1.22
1.39 Goals conceded 1.28
2.78 Total goals 2.50
8.61 Shots 12.89
2.83 Shots on target 4.00
13.33 Shots faced 12.06
4.67 Corners 5.61
6.17 Corners against 5.44
12.72 Fouls 11.17
2.50 Yellow cards 1.94
0.61 1st-half goals scored 0.44
0.44 1st-half goals conceded 0.83

How often Full Time

39% Wins 33%
28% Draws 33%
33% Losses 33%
100% Over 0.5 goals 94%
72% Over 1.5 goals 83%
50% Over 2.5 goals 50%
28% Over 3.5 goals 17%
11% Over 4.5 goals 6%
6% Over 5.5 goals 0%
72% Both teams scored 67%
17% Clean sheets 17%
11% Failed to score 22%

How often Half Time

39% Wins 33%
33% Draws 17%
28% Losses 50%
78% Over 0.5 goals 83%
17% Over 1.5 goals 28%
6% Over 2.5 goals 17%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby all matches
Leicester all matches
Derby before this match, at home
1.33points / match
1.33scored / match
1.44conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 12:13
Leicester before this match, away
1.22points / match
1.22scored / match
1.44conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 9 played · 11:13
Derby at home away Leicester

Per match

1.33 Goals scored 1.22
1.44 Goals conceded 1.44
2.78 Total goals 2.67
10.00 Shots 12.11
3.11 Shots on target 3.67
12.22 Shots faced 13.44
5.11 Corners 4.67
4.89 Corners against 5.67
12.00 Fouls 10.78
2.22 Yellow cards 1.56
0.67 1st-half goals scored 0.22
0.67 1st-half goals conceded 1.11

How often Full Time

33% Wins 33%
33% Draws 22%
33% Losses 44%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
67% Over 1.5 goals 78%
33% Over 2.5 goals 67%
22% Over 3.5 goals 22%
22% Over 4.5 goals 0%
11% Over 5.5 goals 0%
67% Both teams scored 67%
22% Clean sheets 11%
11% Failed to score 22%

How often Half Time

33% Wins 11%
33% Draws 22%
33% Losses 67%
89% Over 0.5 goals 78%
22% Over 1.5 goals 33%
11% Over 2.5 goals 22%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Derby at home
Leicester away

Last 10 matches before this match

Derby all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
29.11.25 Middlesbrough – Derby 2–1 (0–1) 1.713.605.00 2.20 1.67
25.11.25 Swansea – Derby 1–2 (0–1) 2.103.053.60 2.50 1.53
22.11.25 Derby – Watford 2–3 (1–0) 2.453.202.82 2.30 1.62
08.11.25 Blackburn – Derby 1–2 (0–2) 1.913.303.90 2.38 1.57
04.11.25 Derby – Hull 2–1 (1–0) 2.153.253.30 2.10 1.73
01.11.25 Sheffield United – Derby 1–3 (0–1) 1.763.504.33 2.20 1.67
25.10.25 Derby – QPR 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.252.65 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Derby – Norwich 1–0 (0–0) 2.503.052.82 2.20 1.67
18.10.25 Oxford – Derby 1–0 (1–0) 2.403.052.95 2.50 1.53
04.10.25 Derby – Southampton 1–1 (1–1) 3.503.302.05 2.20 1.67

Leicester all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
29.11.25 Leicester – Sheffield United 2–3 (0–3) 2.303.303.05 2.00 1.80
25.11.25 Southampton – Leicester 3–0 (3–0) 1.963.603.70 1.80 2.00
22.11.25 Leicester – Stoke 2–1 (2–0) 1.963.403.70 1.85 2.00
08.11.25 Norwich – Leicester 1–2 (0–0) 2.953.402.20 1.83 2.03
04.11.25 Leicester – Middlesbrough 1–1 (1–0) 2.153.403.20 1.98 1.88
01.11.25 Leicester – Blackburn 0–2 (0–1) 1.763.904.00 2.00 1.85
25.10.25 Millwall – Leicester 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.202.65 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Hull – Leicester 2–1 (2–0) 3.253.502.10 1.85 2.00
18.10.25 Leicester – Portsmouth 1–1 (1–0) 1.623.755.00 1.98 1.88
04.10.25 Swansea – Leicester 1–3 (0–1) 2.353.502.70 2.20 1.67

Derby at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
22.11.25 Derby – Watford 2–3 (1–0) 2.453.202.82 2.30 1.62
04.11.25 Derby – Hull 2–1 (1–0) 2.153.253.30 2.10 1.73
25.10.25 Derby – QPR 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.252.65 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Derby – Norwich 1–0 (0–0) 2.503.052.82 2.20 1.67
04.10.25 Derby – Southampton 1–1 (1–1) 3.503.302.05 2.20 1.67
30.09.25 Derby – Charlton 1–1 (0–1) 2.553.252.65 2.63 1.50
20.09.25 Derby – Preston 0–1 (0–1) 2.303.103.10 2.75 1.44
22.08.25 Derby – Bristol City 1–1 (0–1) 3.003.202.38 2.38 1.57
16.08.25 Derby – Coventry 3–5 (2–2) 3.103.202.38 2.30 1.62
03.05.25 Derby – Stoke 0–0 (0–0) 2.053.004.20 2.50 1.53

Leicester away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
25.11.25 Southampton – Leicester 3–0 (3–0) 1.963.603.70 1.80 2.00
08.11.25 Norwich – Leicester 1–2 (0–0) 2.953.402.20 1.83 2.03
25.10.25 Millwall – Leicester 1–0 (1–0) 2.553.202.65 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Hull – Leicester 2–1 (2–0) 3.253.502.10 1.85 2.00
04.10.25 Swansea – Leicester 1–3 (0–1) 2.353.502.70 2.20 1.67
26.09.25 West Brom – Leicester 1–1 (1–0) 2.053.303.50 2.20 1.67
13.09.25 Oxford – Leicester 2–2 (2–1) 4.203.501.81 2.10 1.73
23.08.25 Charlton – Leicester 0–1 (0–0) 3.303.302.20 2.10 1.73
16.08.25 Preston – Leicester 2–1 (1–0) 3.603.302.05 2.10 1.73
25.05.25E0 Bournemouth – Leicester 2–0 (0–0) 1.335.258.50 1.50 2.63

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

No head-to-head in last 5 seasons before this match

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 18 13 4 1 50 18 +32 43
2 Middlesbrough 19 10 6 3 28 20 +8 36
3 Millwall 18 9 4 5 22 25 -3 31
4 Stoke 18 9 3 6 26 14 +12 30
5 Preston 18 8 6 4 25 19 +6 30
6 Bristol City 18 8 5 5 26 20 +6 29
7 Ipswich 18 7 7 4 30 19 +11 28
8 Birmingham 18 8 4 6 27 20 +7 28
9 Hull 19 8 4 7 31 34 -3 28
10 Wrexham 18 6 8 4 23 20 +3 26
11 Derby 18 7 5 6 25 25 0 26
12 West Brom 18 7 4 7 20 22 -2 25
13 QPR 18 7 4 7 22 28 -6 25
14 Southampton 18 6 6 6 28 25 +3 24
15 Watford 18 6 6 6 24 23 +1 24
16 Leicester 18 6 6 6 22 23 -1 24
17 Charlton 18 6 5 7 18 23 -5 23
18 Blackburn 18 6 3 9 18 23 -5 21
19 Sheffield United 18 6 1 11 20 28 -8 19
20 Oxford 18 4 6 8 20 25 -5 18
21 Swansea 18 4 5 9 18 27 -9 17
22 Portsmouth 18 4 5 9 15 25 -10 17
23 Norwich 18 3 4 11 19 29 -10 13
24 Sheffield Weds 18 1 5 12 14 36 -22 8
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 9 7 2 0 25 7 +18 23
2 Birmingham 9 6 2 1 21 8 +13 20
3 Middlesbrough 9 6 2 1 13 9 +4 20
4 Millwall 10 6 1 3 12 12 0 19
5 Watford 9 5 3 1 15 9 +6 18
6 Preston 9 5 2 2 13 9 +4 17
7 Hull 10 5 2 3 16 18 -2 17
8 Stoke 9 5 1 3 15 7 +8 16
9 Ipswich 9 4 4 1 15 9 +6 16
10 West Brom 9 4 4 1 11 8 +3 16
11 Wrexham 10 4 4 2 15 13 +2 16
12 Bristol City 9 4 2 3 14 10 +4 14
13 Charlton 8 4 2 2 10 9 +1 14
14 Leicester 9 3 4 2 11 10 +1 13
15 Southampton 8 3 3 2 10 7 +3 12
16 Derby 9 3 3 3 12 13 -1 12
17 QPR 8 3 2 3 11 12 -1 11
18 Portsmouth 10 3 2 5 9 11 -2 11
19 Oxford 9 2 4 3 10 13 -3 10
20 Swansea 9 2 3 4 10 15 -5 9
21 Sheffield United 8 2 1 5 7 11 -4 7
22 Blackburn 9 1 2 6 8 15 -7 5
23 Norwich 9 1 1 7 9 15 -6 4
24 Sheffield Weds 10 0 2 8 5 24 -19 2
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 9 6 2 1 25 11 +14 20
2 Middlesbrough 10 4 4 2 15 11 +4 16
3 Blackburn 9 5 1 3 10 8 +2 16
4 Bristol City 9 4 3 2 12 10 +2 15
5 Stoke 9 4 2 3 11 7 +4 14
6 Derby 9 4 2 3 13 12 +1 14
7 QPR 10 4 2 4 11 16 -5 14
8 Preston 9 3 4 2 12 10 +2 13
9 Ipswich 9 3 3 3 15 10 +5 12
10 Southampton 10 3 3 4 18 18 0 12
11 Millwall 8 3 3 2 10 13 -3 12
12 Sheffield United 10 4 0 6 13 17 -4 12
13 Hull 9 3 2 4 15 16 -1 11
14 Leicester 9 3 2 4 11 13 -2 11
15 Wrexham 8 2 4 2 8 7 +1 10
16 Norwich 9 2 3 4 10 14 -4 9
17 West Brom 9 3 0 6 9 14 -5 9
18 Charlton 10 2 3 5 8 14 -6 9
19 Oxford 9 2 2 5 10 12 -2 8
20 Swansea 9 2 2 5 8 12 -4 8
21 Birmingham 9 2 2 5 6 12 -6 8
22 Sheffield Weds 8 1 3 4 9 12 -3 6
23 Watford 9 1 3 5 9 14 -5 6
24 Portsmouth 8 1 3 4 6 14 -8 6

Derby   Leicester

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 9 Hull 19 5 14 1.6 1.8 8 4 7 31 34 28
2 1 Coventry 18 5 13 2.8 1.0 13 4 1 50 18 43
3 14 Southampton 18 6 12 1.6 1.4 6 6 6 28 25 24
4 24 Sheffield Weds 18 7 11 0.8 2.0 1 5 12 14 36 8
5 2 Middlesbrough 19 9 10 1.5 1.1 10 6 3 28 20 36
6 13 QPR 18 8 10 1.2 1.6 7 4 7 22 28 25
7 15 Watford 18 8 10 1.3 1.3 6 6 6 24 23 24
8 19 Sheffield United 18 8 10 1.1 1.6 6 1 11 20 28 19
9 20 Oxford 18 8 10 1.1 1.4 4 6 8 20 25 18
10 3 Millwall 18 9 9 1.2 1.4 9 4 5 22 25 31
11 7 Ipswich 18 9 9 1.7 1.1 7 7 4 30 19 28
12 8 Birmingham 18 9 9 1.5 1.1 8 4 6 27 20 28
13 11 Derby 18 9 9 1.4 1.4 7 5 6 25 25 26
14 16 Leicester 18 9 9 1.2 1.3 6 6 6 22 23 24
15 21 Swansea 18 9 9 1.0 1.5 4 5 9 18 27 17
16 23 Norwich 18 9 9 1.1 1.6 3 4 11 19 29 13
17 4 Stoke 18 10 8 1.4 0.8 9 3 6 26 14 30
18 5 Preston 18 10 8 1.4 1.1 8 6 4 25 19 30
19 6 Bristol City 18 10 8 1.4 1.1 8 5 5 26 20 29
20 12 West Brom 18 10 8 1.1 1.2 7 4 7 20 22 25
21 18 Blackburn 18 10 8 1.0 1.3 6 3 9 18 23 21
22 22 Portsmouth 18 10 8 0.8 1.4 4 5 9 15 25 17
23 17 Charlton 18 11 7 1.0 1.3 6 5 7 18 23 23
24 10 Wrexham 18 12 6 1.3 1.1 6 8 4 23 20 26
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 9 Hull 10 3 7 1.6 1.8 5 2 3 16 18 17
2 1 Coventry 9 3 6 2.8 0.8 7 2 0 25 7 23
3 8 Birmingham 9 3 6 2.3 0.9 6 2 1 21 8 20
4 15 Watford 9 3 6 1.7 1.0 5 3 1 15 9 18
5 24 Sheffield Weds 10 4 6 0.5 2.4 0 2 8 5 24 2
6 2 Middlesbrough 9 4 5 1.4 1.0 6 2 1 13 9 20
7 5 Preston 9 4 5 1.4 1.0 5 2 2 13 9 17
8 6 Bristol City 9 4 5 1.6 1.1 4 2 3 14 10 14
9 7 Ipswich 9 4 5 1.7 1.0 4 4 1 15 9 16
10 13 QPR 8 3 5 1.4 1.5 3 2 3 11 12 11
11 18 Blackburn 9 4 5 0.9 1.7 1 2 6 8 15 5
12 20 Oxford 9 4 5 1.1 1.4 2 4 3 10 13 10
13 21 Swansea 9 4 5 1.1 1.7 2 3 4 10 15 9
14 23 Norwich 9 4 5 1.0 1.7 1 1 7 9 15 4
15 3 Millwall 10 6 4 1.2 1.2 6 1 3 12 12 19
16 4 Stoke 9 5 4 1.7 0.8 5 1 3 15 7 16
17 10 Wrexham 10 6 4 1.5 1.3 4 4 2 15 13 16
18 14 Southampton 8 4 4 1.2 0.9 3 3 2 10 7 12
19 19 Sheffield United 8 4 4 0.9 1.4 2 1 5 7 11 7
20 22 Portsmouth 10 6 4 0.9 1.1 3 2 5 9 11 11
21 11 Derby 9 6 3 1.3 1.4 3 3 3 12 13 12
22 12 West Brom 9 6 3 1.2 0.9 4 4 1 11 8 16
23 16 Leicester 9 6 3 1.2 1.1 3 4 2 11 10 13
24 17 Charlton 8 5 3 1.2 1.1 4 2 2 10 9 14
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 14 Southampton 10 2 8 1.8 1.8 3 3 4 18 18 12
2 1 Coventry 9 2 7 2.8 1.2 6 2 1 25 11 20
3 9 Hull 9 2 7 1.7 1.8 3 2 4 15 16 11
4 11 Derby 9 3 6 1.4 1.3 4 2 3 13 12 14
5 16 Leicester 9 3 6 1.2 1.4 3 2 4 11 13 11
6 19 Sheffield United 10 4 6 1.3 1.7 4 0 6 13 17 12
7 2 Middlesbrough 10 5 5 1.5 1.1 4 4 2 15 11 16
8 3 Millwall 8 3 5 1.2 1.6 3 3 2 10 13 12
9 12 West Brom 9 4 5 1.0 1.6 3 0 6 9 14 9
10 13 QPR 10 5 5 1.1 1.6 4 2 4 11 16 14
11 20 Oxford 9 4 5 1.1 1.3 2 2 5 10 12 8
12 24 Sheffield Weds 8 3 5 1.1 1.5 1 3 4 9 12 6
13 4 Stoke 9 5 4 1.2 0.8 4 2 3 11 7 14
14 7 Ipswich 9 5 4 1.7 1.1 3 3 3 15 10 12
15 15 Watford 9 5 4 1.0 1.6 1 3 5 9 14 6
16 17 Charlton 10 6 4 0.8 1.4 2 3 5 8 14 9
17 21 Swansea 9 5 4 0.9 1.3 2 2 5 8 12 8
18 22 Portsmouth 8 4 4 0.8 1.8 1 3 4 6 14 6
19 23 Norwich 9 5 4 1.1 1.6 2 3 4 10 14 9
20 5 Preston 9 6 3 1.3 1.1 3 4 2 12 10 13
21 6 Bristol City 9 6 3 1.3 1.1 4 3 2 12 10 15
22 8 Birmingham 9 6 3 0.7 1.3 2 2 5 6 12 8
23 18 Blackburn 9 6 3 1.1 0.9 5 1 3 10 8 16
24 10 Wrexham 8 6 2 1.0 0.9 2 4 2 8 7 10

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51