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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Portugal Primeira Liga ·

Estrela 3–1 Arouca

Full time · half time 2–0 · season 2025/2026

Home ✓ 2.10 fair 1.97
Draw 3.20 fair 4.42
Away 3.50 fair 3.74
Under 2.5 1.70 fair 2.58
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.10 fair 1.63

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Estrela Arouca
24 Shots 9
9 Shots on target 2
5 Corners 3
12 Fouls 14
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 2

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (113 league matches this season so far).
Result Estrela to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.63
Expected goals 1.86 – 1.30
Home / Draw / Away
EstrelaDrawArouca
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 10.2% 2–1 9.5% 1–0 7.9%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Estrela before this match, all matches
0.92points / match
1.08scored / match
1.50conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 13:18
Arouca before this match, all matches
0.75points / match
1.08scored / match
2.83conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 13:34
Estrela all matches all matches Arouca

Per match

1.08 Goals scored 1.08
1.50 Goals conceded 2.83
2.58 Total goals 3.92
11.42 Shots 8.83
3.58 Shots on target 2.75
12.67 Shots faced 14.58
3.50 Corners 3.33
4.75 Corners against 5.83
14.08 Fouls 14.50
2.50 Yellow cards 2.75
0.58 1st-half goals scored 0.42
0.92 1st-half goals conceded 1.33

How often Full Time

17% Wins 17%
42% Draws 25%
42% Losses 58%
83% Over 0.5 goals 100%
75% Over 1.5 goals 100%
42% Over 2.5 goals 67%
25% Over 3.5 goals 58%
8% Over 4.5 goals 33%
8% Over 5.5 goals 25%
42% Both teams scored 50%
25% Clean sheets 0%
50% Failed to score 50%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 17%
25% Draws 33%
50% Losses 50%
75% Over 0.5 goals 83%
42% Over 1.5 goals 50%
33% Over 2.5 goals 33%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Estrela all matches
Arouca all matches
Estrela before this match, at home
0.83points / match
1.17scored / match
1.33conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 6 played · 7:8
Arouca before this match, away
0.80points / match
1.20scored / match
3.40conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 5 played · 6:17
Estrela at home away Arouca

Per match

1.17 Goals scored 1.20
1.33 Goals conceded 3.40
2.50 Total goals 4.60
14.17 Shots 8.20
3.50 Shots on target 2.20
11.67 Shots faced 16.40
4.33 Corners 2.20
4.17 Corners against 6.00
13.50 Fouls 14.60
3.00 Yellow cards 1.80
0.83 1st-half goals scored 0.60
0.67 1st-half goals conceded 1.80

How often Full Time

17% Wins 20%
33% Draws 20%
50% Losses 60%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
83% Over 1.5 goals 100%
50% Over 2.5 goals 80%
17% Over 3.5 goals 60%
0% Over 4.5 goals 60%
0% Over 5.5 goals 40%
50% Both teams scored 60%
17% Clean sheets 0%
33% Failed to score 40%

How often Half Time

33% Wins 0%
17% Draws 60%
50% Losses 40%
83% Over 0.5 goals 80%
33% Over 1.5 goals 80%
33% Over 2.5 goals 60%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Estrela at home
Arouca away

Last 10 matches before this match

Estrela all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
30.11.25 Sp Lisbon – Estrela 4–0 (3–0) 1.109.0015.00 1.40 2.88
09.11.25 Estrela – Nacional 1–1 (0–1) 2.703.202.50 2.15 1.67
01.11.25 Casa Pia – Estrela 3–5 (1–2) 2.013.053.90 2.40 1.53
25.10.25 Estrela – Rio Ave 1–2 (1–0) 2.573.202.70 2.15 1.67
04.10.25 Gil Vicente – Estrela 2–0 (2–0) 1.613.755.25 2.20 1.65
27.09.25 Estrela – AVS 3–0 (3–0) 2.053.103.80 2.40 1.53
21.09.25 Tondela – Estrela 0–0 (0–0) 2.252.853.60 2.50 1.50
14.09.25 Estrela – Guimaraes 0–2 (0–1) 3.303.302.15 2.25 1.62
31.08.25 Santa Clara – Estrela 0–0 (0–0) 1.813.404.33 2.40 1.53
25.08.25 Estrela – Alverca 2–2 (1–2) 1.903.404.10 2.25 1.62

Arouca all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.12.25 Arouca – Sp Braga 0–4 (0–3) 6.503.901.49 1.80 2.00
07.11.25 Estoril – Arouca 4–3 (2–2) 1.913.603.70 1.95 1.90
02.11.25 Arouca – Moreirense 0–2 (0–2) 2.573.202.65 2.10 1.70
25.10.25 Benfica – Arouca 5–0 (3–0) 1.157.0013.00 1.44 2.70
05.10.25 Arouca – Famalicao 1–1 (0–0) 3.603.252.01 2.10 1.70
29.09.25 Arouca – Porto 0–4 (0–1) 7.504.751.35 1.75 2.05
20.09.25 Nacional – Arouca 1–2 (0–0) 2.453.102.85 2.08 1.73
14.09.25 Arouca – Casa Pia 0–2 (0–1) 1.913.304.00 2.15 1.67
30.08.25 Guimaraes – Arouca 1–1 (1–1) 1.763.604.33 2.03 1.83
23.08.25 Arouca – Rio Ave 3–3 (1–0) 2.003.253.90 2.05 1.80

Estrela at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.11.25 Estrela – Nacional 1–1 (0–1) 2.703.202.50 2.15 1.67
25.10.25 Estrela – Rio Ave 1–2 (1–0) 2.573.202.70 2.15 1.67
27.09.25 Estrela – AVS 3–0 (3–0) 2.053.103.80 2.40 1.53
14.09.25 Estrela – Guimaraes 0–2 (0–1) 3.303.302.15 2.25 1.62
25.08.25 Estrela – Alverca 2–2 (1–2) 1.903.404.10 2.25 1.62
16.08.25 Estrela – Benfica 0–1 (0–0) 13.006.501.20 1.57 2.35
11.05.25 Estrela – AVS 0–1 (0–0) 1.903.603.80 2.15 1.67
26.04.25 Estrela – Porto 2–0 (1–0) 6.253.901.53 2.05 1.80
13.04.25 Estrela – Farense 0–1 (0–0) 2.703.002.75 2.50 1.50
29.03.25 Estrela – Sp Lisbon 0–3 (0–0) 9.005.001.33 1.73 2.08

Arouca away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
07.11.25 Estoril – Arouca 4–3 (2–2) 1.913.603.70 1.95 1.90
25.10.25 Benfica – Arouca 5–0 (3–0) 1.157.0013.00 1.44 2.70
20.09.25 Nacional – Arouca 1–2 (0–0) 2.453.102.85 2.08 1.73
30.08.25 Guimaraes – Arouca 1–1 (1–1) 1.763.604.33 2.03 1.83
17.08.25 Sp Lisbon – Arouca 6–0 (3–0) 1.296.008.50 1.57 2.35
10.05.25 Gil Vicente – Arouca 1–1 (0–0) 2.353.253.00 2.10 1.70
26.04.25 Santa Clara – Arouca 2–0 (2–0) 1.903.104.50 2.30 1.60
13.04.25 Benfica – Arouca 2–2 (0–0) 1.177.0017.00 1.44 2.70
29.03.25 Sp Braga – Arouca 2–1 (2–0) 1.703.754.75 1.90 1.95
08.03.25 AVS – Arouca 0–1 (0–0) 3.103.102.38 2.25 1.62

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Estrela winsDrawsArouca wins
4matches
2.25goals / match
50%over 2.5
50%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
19.04.25P1 Arouca – Estrela 1–0 (0–0) 1.903.304.20 2.10 1.70
09.12.24P1 Estrela – Arouca 2–1 (0–1) 2.553.202.80 2.15 1.67
05.05.24P1 Arouca – Estrela 0–0 (0–0) 2.053.603.50 1.88 1.98
28.12.23P1 Estrela – Arouca 1–4 (1–0) 2.553.302.70 2.08 1.73

Portugal Primeira Liga table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 12 11 1 0 25 3 +22 34 WDWWWW
2 Sp Lisbon 13 10 2 1 32 7 +25 32 DWWWWD
3 Benfica 13 8 5 0 26 8 +18 29 DWWDWD
4 Gil Vicente 12 7 2 3 16 6 +10 23 LWWWDL
5 Sp Braga 13 6 4 3 25 12 +13 22 DWLWWW
6 Famalicao 13 5 5 3 14 9 +5 20 DWWLDL
7 Moreirense 13 6 2 5 21 20 +1 20 LLWLDD
8 Guimaraes 12 5 2 5 14 17 -3 17 LWLLWW
9 Rio Ave 13 3 7 3 17 21 -4 16 WWLDDW
10 Santa Clara 13 4 3 6 11 14 -3 15 LWLLDW
11 Estoril 13 3 5 5 22 21 +1 14 DDWWLD
12 Alverca 12 4 2 6 14 19 -5 14 WWLLDW
13 Nacional 12 3 3 6 12 17 -5 12 WWDLDL
14 Estrela 12 2 5 5 13 18 -5 11 WLLWDL
15 Tondela 12 2 3 7 7 20 -13 9 WLLDLW
16 Casa Pia 13 2 3 8 13 27 -14 9 DLLDLL
17 Arouca 12 2 3 7 13 34 -21 9 LDLLLL
18 AVS 13 0 3 10 9 31 -22 3 LLDDLL
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 6 5 1 0 11 1 +10 16 WWWDWW
2 Sp Lisbon 6 4 1 1 17 3 +14 13 WLWDWW
3 Benfica 7 3 4 0 15 6 +9 13 DDWWDD
4 Moreirense 6 4 1 1 12 7 +5 13 WWWWLD
5 Gil Vicente 6 4 0 2 7 3 +4 12 LWWWWL
6 Guimaraes 6 3 2 1 11 8 +3 11 WDDWLW
7 Sp Braga 6 3 1 2 11 5 +6 10 WDLLWW
8 Santa Clara 7 3 1 3 7 6 +1 10 DWLWLW
9 Estoril 7 2 3 2 12 11 +1 9 LWLDWD
10 Famalicao 7 2 2 3 7 5 +2 8 DLDWLL
11 Alverca 6 2 1 3 5 10 -5 7 LLWWLD
12 Rio Ave 6 1 3 2 7 11 -4 6 DDLWLD
13 Estrela 6 1 2 3 7 8 -1 5 LDLWLD
14 Arouca 7 1 2 4 7 17 -10 5 DLLDLL
15 Nacional 6 1 0 5 6 13 -7 3 LLLWLL
16 Tondela 5 0 2 3 2 7 -5 2 LDDLL
17 Casa Pia 6 0 2 4 6 14 -8 2 LLDDLL
18 AVS 7 0 2 5 5 14 -9 2 LLLDDL
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Sp Lisbon 7 6 1 0 15 4 +11 19 WWWWWD
2 Porto 6 6 0 0 14 2 +12 18 WWWWWW
3 Benfica 6 5 1 0 11 2 +9 16 WWWDWW
4 Sp Braga 7 3 3 1 14 7 +7 12 DDDLWW
5 Famalicao 6 3 3 0 7 4 +3 12 WWDDWD
6 Gil Vicente 6 3 2 1 9 3 +6 11 WDWLWD
7 Rio Ave 7 2 4 1 10 10 0 10 LDDWDW
8 Nacional 6 2 3 1 6 4 +2 9 DWLWDD
9 Alverca 6 2 1 3 9 9 0 7 LDLWLW
10 Moreirense 7 2 1 4 9 13 -4 7 LLLWLD
11 Casa Pia 7 2 1 4 7 13 -6 7 LWLLDL
12 Tondela 7 2 1 4 5 13 -8 7 LLWLDW
13 Estrela 6 1 3 2 6 10 -4 6 DDDLWL
14 Guimaraes 6 2 0 4 3 9 -6 6 LLWLLW
15 Estoril 6 1 2 3 10 10 0 5 LDLDWL
16 Santa Clara 6 1 2 3 4 8 -4 5 LWDLLD
17 Arouca 5 1 1 3 6 17 -11 4 LDWLL
18 AVS 6 0 1 5 4 17 -13 1 LDLLLL

Estrela   Arouca

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 5 Sp Braga 13 4 9 1.9 0.9 6 4 3 25 12 22 UOOOOO
2 7 Moreirense 13 4 9 1.6 1.5 6 2 5 21 20 20 OOUOOO
3 18 AVS 13 4 9 0.7 2.4 0 3 10 9 31 3 OUOUOO
4 2 Sp Lisbon 13 5 8 2.5 0.5 10 2 1 32 7 32 UOUOOU
5 3 Benfica 13 5 8 2.0 0.6 8 5 0 26 8 29 UOOOOU
6 9 Rio Ave 13 5 8 1.3 1.6 3 7 3 17 21 16 OOOUUO
7 17 Arouca 12 4 8 1.1 2.8 2 3 7 13 34 9 OUOUOO
8 1 Porto 12 5 7 2.1 0.2 11 1 0 25 3 34 OUOOUU
9 11 Estoril 13 6 7 1.7 1.6 3 5 5 22 21 14 OUOOUO
10 12 Alverca 12 5 7 1.2 1.6 4 2 6 14 19 14 UOOUUU
11 15 Tondela 12 5 7 0.6 1.7 2 3 7 7 20 9 OOOOUU
12 16 Casa Pia 13 7 6 1.0 2.1 2 3 8 13 27 9 OOOOUU
13 8 Guimaraes 12 7 5 1.2 1.4 5 2 5 14 17 17 UOUOUO
14 10 Santa Clara 13 8 5 0.8 1.1 4 3 6 11 14 15 OUUOUU
15 14 Estrela 12 7 5 1.1 1.5 2 5 5 13 18 11 OUOOUO
16 6 Famalicao 13 9 4 1.1 0.7 5 5 3 14 9 20 UUUUOO
17 13 Nacional 12 8 4 1.0 1.4 3 3 6 12 17 12 UOUUUO
18 4 Gil Vicente 12 10 2 1.3 0.5 7 2 3 16 6 23 OUOUUU
Home – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 7 Moreirense 6 1 5 2.0 1.2 4 1 1 12 7 13 OUOOOO
2 2 Sp Lisbon 6 2 4 2.8 0.5 4 1 1 17 3 13 OOOUUO
3 3 Benfica 7 3 4 2.1 0.9 3 4 0 15 6 13 UUOOOU
4 5 Sp Braga 6 2 4 1.8 0.8 3 1 2 11 5 10 OOUUOO
5 8 Guimaraes 6 2 4 1.8 1.3 3 2 1 11 8 11 OUUOOO
6 9 Rio Ave 6 2 4 1.2 1.8 1 3 2 7 11 6 UOOOOU
7 13 Nacional 6 2 4 1.0 2.2 1 0 5 6 13 3 UOOOUO
8 17 Arouca 7 3 4 1.0 2.4 1 2 4 7 17 5 OUOUUO
9 18 AVS 7 3 4 0.7 2.0 0 2 5 5 14 2 UOOOUO
10 1 Porto 6 3 3 1.8 0.2 5 1 0 11 1 16 OOUUOU
11 6 Famalicao 7 4 3 1.0 0.7 2 2 3 7 5 8 UOUUUO
12 10 Santa Clara 7 4 3 1.0 0.9 3 1 3 7 6 10 UOOUOU
13 11 Estoril 7 4 3 1.7 1.6 2 3 2 12 11 9 UOUUOO
14 12 Alverca 6 3 3 0.8 1.7 2 1 3 5 10 7 OOUUOU
15 14 Estrela 6 3 3 1.2 1.3 1 2 3 7 8 5 UOUOOU
16 15 Tondela 5 3 2 0.4 1.4 0 2 3 2 7 2 UOUOU
17 16 Casa Pia 6 4 2 1.0 2.3 0 2 4 6 14 2 UUUOOU
18 4 Gil Vicente 6 6 0 1.2 0.5 4 0 2 7 3 12 UUUUUU
Away – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 5 Sp Braga 7 2 5 2.0 1.0 3 3 1 14 7 12 OUUOOO
2 15 Tondela 7 2 5 0.7 1.9 2 1 4 5 13 7 OUOOOU
3 18 AVS 6 1 5 0.7 2.8 0 1 5 4 17 1 OOOOUO
4 1 Porto 6 2 4 2.3 0.3 6 0 0 14 2 18 UOOOOU
5 2 Sp Lisbon 7 3 4 2.1 0.6 6 1 0 15 4 19 OOUOOU
6 3 Benfica 6 2 4 1.8 0.3 5 1 0 11 2 16 UOOUOO
7 7 Moreirense 7 3 4 1.3 1.9 2 1 4 9 13 7 UOOUOO
8 9 Rio Ave 7 3 4 1.4 1.4 2 4 1 10 10 10 OUUOUO
9 11 Estoril 6 2 4 1.7 1.7 1 2 3 10 10 5 OOUOOU
10 12 Alverca 6 2 4 1.5 1.5 2 1 3 9 9 7 OOOOUU
11 16 Casa Pia 7 3 4 1.0 1.9 2 1 4 7 13 7 OUOOOU
12 17 Arouca 5 1 4 1.2 3.4 1 1 3 6 17 4 OUOOO
13 4 Gil Vicente 6 4 2 1.5 0.5 3 2 1 9 3 11 UUUOOU
14 10 Santa Clara 6 4 2 0.7 1.3 1 2 3 4 8 5 OUUOUU
15 14 Estrela 6 4 2 1.0 1.7 1 3 2 6 10 6 UUUUOO
16 6 Famalicao 6 5 1 1.2 0.7 3 3 0 7 4 12 UUUUUO
17 8 Guimaraes 6 5 1 0.5 1.5 2 0 4 3 9 6 OUUUUU
18 13 Nacional 6 6 0 1.0 0.7 2 3 1 6 4 9 UUUUUU

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Streak = last 6 matches, oldest left: O / U over or under the line, Y / N on the BTTS tab. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 2 Nov 2026, 20:47