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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: L Smith

Watford 3–0 Birmingham

Full time · half time 2–0 · season 2025/2026

Home ✓ 2.30 fair 2.05
Draw 3.25 fair 4.01
Away 2.95 fair 3.81
Under 2.5 1.80 fair 2.03
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.00 fair 1.98

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Watford Birmingham
13 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 2
4 Corners 4
5 Fouls 14
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (287 league matches this season so far).
Result Watford to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.88
Expected goals 1.60 – 1.10
Home / Draw / Away
WatfordDrawBirmingham
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.8% 1–0 10.7% 2–1 9.5%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Watford before this match, all matches
1.58points / match
1.42scored / match
1.21conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 24 played · 34:29
Birmingham before this match, all matches
1.29points / match
1.33scored / match
1.29conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 24 played · 32:31
Watford all matches all matches Birmingham

Per match

1.42 Goals scored 1.33
1.21 Goals conceded 1.29
2.63 Total goals 2.63
13.92 Shots 14.50
4.71 Shots on target 3.83
11.75 Shots faced 10.13
4.50 Corners 5.46
5.25 Corners against 4.25
11.13 Fouls 11.29
2.00 Yellow cards 2.00
0.63 1st-half goals scored 0.58
0.88 1st-half goals conceded 0.75

How often Full Time

42% Wins 33%
33% Draws 29%
25% Losses 38%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
75% Over 1.5 goals 79%
54% Over 2.5 goals 50%
25% Over 3.5 goals 25%
8% Over 4.5 goals 8%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
71% Both teams scored 58%
13% Clean sheets 21%
17% Failed to score 21%

How often Half Time

21% Wins 29%
42% Draws 21%
38% Losses 50%
79% Over 0.5 goals 83%
50% Over 1.5 goals 33%
21% Over 2.5 goals 13%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Watford all matches
Birmingham all matches
Watford before this match, at home
2.08points / match
1.67scored / match
1.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 20:12
Birmingham before this match, away
0.67points / match
0.67scored / match
1.67conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 12 played · 8:20
Watford at home away Birmingham

Per match

1.67 Goals scored 0.67
1.00 Goals conceded 1.67
2.67 Total goals 2.33
16.92 Shots 10.00
5.92 Shots on target 2.17
11.08 Shots faced 11.75
5.25 Corners 4.67
4.75 Corners against 4.42
11.00 Fouls 11.42
1.58 Yellow cards 2.00
0.83 1st-half goals scored 0.17
0.83 1st-half goals conceded 1.08

How often Full Time

58% Wins 17%
33% Draws 17%
8% Losses 67%
100% Over 0.5 goals 100%
83% Over 1.5 goals 75%
58% Over 2.5 goals 50%
17% Over 3.5 goals 8%
8% Over 4.5 goals 0%
0% Over 5.5 goals 0%
75% Both teams scored 50%
17% Clean sheets 8%
8% Failed to score 42%

How often Half Time

25% Wins 8%
42% Draws 8%
33% Losses 83%
83% Over 0.5 goals 92%
58% Over 1.5 goals 25%
25% Over 2.5 goals 8%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Watford at home
Birmingham away

Last 10 matches before this match

Watford all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
29.12.25 Norwich – Watford 0–1 (0–0) 2.503.402.65 1.80 2.00
26.12.25 Leicester – Watford 1–2 (1–1) 2.253.303.05 1.95 1.90
20.12.25 Watford – Stoke 1–0 (0–0) 2.013.203.20 1.91 1.91
13.12.25 Wrexham – Watford 2–2 (1–2) 2.503.202.70 2.00 1.80
09.12.25 Watford – Sheffield Weds 1–1 (0–1) 1.534.335.00 1.57 2.38
06.12.25 Watford – Norwich 3–2 (1–2) 1.863.603.80 1.85 2.00
01.12.25 Birmingham – Watford 2–1 (2–0) 1.793.604.33 2.10 1.73
25.11.25 Watford – Preston 1–1 (1–1) 1.813.604.20 2.10 1.73
22.11.25 Derby – Watford 2–3 (1–0) 2.453.202.82 2.30 1.62
07.11.25 Watford – Bristol City 1–1 (1–1) 2.013.403.60 2.20 1.67

Birmingham all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
29.12.25 Birmingham – Southampton 1–1 (0–0) 2.303.402.85 1.80 2.00
26.12.25 Birmingham – Derby 1–1 (0–1) 1.863.404.20 2.10 1.73
20.12.25 Sheffield United – Birmingham 3–0 (2–0) 2.253.502.95 1.93 1.93
13.12.25 Birmingham – Charlton 1–1 (1–0) 1.534.005.75 2.00 1.80
09.12.25 QPR – Birmingham 2–1 (1–0) 2.853.302.35 1.98 1.88
06.12.25 Southampton – Birmingham 3–1 (2–0) 2.253.502.85 1.93 1.93
01.12.25 Birmingham – Watford 2–1 (2–0) 1.793.604.33 2.10 1.73
26.11.25 West Brom – Birmingham 1–1 (1–0) 2.653.052.65 2.38 1.57
22.11.25 Birmingham – Norwich 4–1 (3–1) 1.623.705.00 1.90 1.95
08.11.25 Middlesbrough – Birmingham 2–1 (2–1) 2.553.252.65 2.30 1.62

Watford at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
20.12.25 Watford – Stoke 1–0 (0–0) 2.013.203.20 1.91 1.91
09.12.25 Watford – Sheffield Weds 1–1 (0–1) 1.534.335.00 1.57 2.38
06.12.25 Watford – Norwich 3–2 (1–2) 1.863.603.80 1.85 2.00
25.11.25 Watford – Preston 1–1 (1–1) 1.813.604.20 2.10 1.73
07.11.25 Watford – Bristol City 1–1 (1–1) 2.013.403.60 2.20 1.67
01.11.25 Watford – Middlesbrough 3–0 (2–0) 2.653.402.45 2.05 1.80
22.10.25 Watford – West Brom 2–1 (1–1) 2.653.252.55 2.20 1.67
04.10.25 Watford – Oxford 2–1 (2–1) 1.963.253.90 2.00 1.80
27.09.25 Watford – Hull 2–1 (0–1) 2.203.403.10 1.95 1.90
13.09.25 Watford – Blackburn 0–1 (0–0) 2.153.503.10 2.20 1.67

Birmingham away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
20.12.25 Sheffield United – Birmingham 3–0 (2–0) 2.253.502.95 1.93 1.93
09.12.25 QPR – Birmingham 2–1 (1–0) 2.853.302.35 1.98 1.88
06.12.25 Southampton – Birmingham 3–1 (2–0) 2.253.502.85 1.93 1.93
26.11.25 West Brom – Birmingham 1–1 (1–0) 2.653.052.65 2.38 1.57
08.11.25 Middlesbrough – Birmingham 2–1 (2–1) 2.553.252.65 2.30 1.62
25.10.25 Bristol City – Birmingham 1–0 (1–0) 2.153.303.30 2.10 1.73
21.10.25 Preston – Birmingham 0–1 (0–1) 2.823.052.45 2.20 1.67
03.10.25 Wrexham – Birmingham 1–1 (1–0) 3.103.102.40 2.38 1.57
27.09.25 Coventry – Birmingham 3–0 (1–0) 1.963.503.60 1.98 1.88
13.09.25 Stoke – Birmingham 1–0 (1–0) 3.003.202.35 2.30 1.62

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Watford winsDrawsBirmingham wins
5matches
2.20goals / match
40%over 2.5
40%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.12.25E1 Birmingham – Watford 2–1 (2–0) 1.793.604.33 2.10 1.73
16.03.24E1 Birmingham – Watford 0–1 (0–1) 2.453.253.00 1.93 1.93
16.09.23E1 Watford – Birmingham 2–0 (0–0) 1.953.304.00 2.10 1.73
14.03.23E1 Watford – Birmingham 3–0 (2–0) 1.833.604.33 2.38 1.57
16.08.22E1 Birmingham – Watford 1–1 (1–0) 3.603.402.00 2.10 1.72

England Championship table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 24 15 6 3 54 25 +29 51
2 Middlesbrough 24 12 7 5 33 25 +8 43
3 Ipswich 24 11 8 5 40 23 +17 41
4 Hull 24 12 5 7 40 37 +3 41
5 Millwall 24 11 6 7 27 32 -5 39
6 Watford 24 10 8 6 34 29 +5 38
7 Preston 24 9 10 5 31 25 +6 37
8 Wrexham 25 9 10 6 36 31 +5 37
9 Bristol City 24 10 6 8 33 27 +6 36
10 QPR 24 10 5 9 34 37 -3 35
11 Stoke 24 10 4 10 29 23 +6 34
12 Leicester 24 9 7 8 34 34 0 34
13 Southampton 24 8 8 8 38 34 +4 32
14 Derby 24 8 8 8 33 33 0 32
15 Birmingham 24 8 7 9 32 31 +1 31
16 West Brom 24 9 4 11 28 32 -4 31
17 Sheffield United 24 9 2 13 33 37 -4 29
18 Swansea 24 8 5 11 25 31 -6 29
19 Blackburn 24 7 6 11 22 28 -6 27
20 Charlton 23 7 6 10 22 29 -7 27
21 Portsmouth 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
22 Oxford 24 5 7 12 24 33 -9 22
23 Norwich 24 5 6 13 26 36 -10 21
24 Sheffield Weds 23 1 8 14 18 45 -27 11
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 12 9 2 1 27 9 +18 29
2 Ipswich 12 7 4 1 22 10 +12 25
3 Watford 12 7 4 1 20 12 +8 25
4 Middlesbrough 12 7 3 2 16 11 +5 24
5 Birmingham 12 6 5 1 24 11 +13 23
6 Wrexham 13 6 5 2 24 19 +5 23
7 Hull 12 7 2 3 19 18 +1 23
8 Millwall 13 7 2 4 15 16 -1 23
9 West Brom 12 6 4 2 16 11 +5 22
10 Stoke 12 6 2 4 18 10 +8 20
11 QPR 11 6 2 3 20 15 +5 20
12 Preston 12 5 5 2 16 12 +4 20
13 Southampton 11 5 4 2 17 11 +6 19
14 Leicester 12 5 4 3 17 14 +3 19
15 Bristol City 12 5 3 4 18 13 +5 18
16 Portsmouth 13 5 3 5 14 14 0 18
17 Swansea 12 5 3 4 15 16 -1 18
18 Charlton 10 5 2 3 12 11 +1 17
19 Sheffield United 11 4 2 5 15 12 +3 14
20 Derby 12 3 5 4 15 18 -3 14
21 Oxford 12 3 4 5 13 17 -4 13
22 Norwich 12 3 1 8 12 17 -5 10
23 Blackburn 12 2 3 7 11 18 -7 9
24 Sheffield Weds 13 0 4 9 7 29 -22 4
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Coventry 12 6 4 2 27 16 +11 22
2 Middlesbrough 12 5 4 3 17 14 +3 19
3 Derby 12 5 3 4 18 15 +3 18
4 Hull 12 5 3 4 21 19 +2 18
5 Bristol City 12 5 3 4 15 14 +1 18
6 Blackburn 12 5 3 4 11 10 +1 18
7 Preston 12 4 5 3 15 13 +2 17
8 Ipswich 12 4 4 4 18 13 +5 16
9 Millwall 11 4 4 3 12 16 -4 16
10 Leicester 12 4 3 5 17 20 -3 15
11 Sheffield United 13 5 0 8 18 25 -7 15
12 QPR 13 4 3 6 14 22 -8 15
13 Wrexham 12 3 5 4 12 12 0 14
14 Stoke 12 4 2 6 11 13 -2 14
15 Southampton 13 3 4 6 21 23 -2 13
16 Watford 12 3 4 5 14 17 -3 13
17 Norwich 12 2 5 5 14 19 -5 11
18 Swansea 12 3 2 7 10 15 -5 11
19 Charlton 13 2 4 7 10 18 -8 10
20 Oxford 12 2 3 7 11 16 -5 9
21 West Brom 12 3 0 9 12 21 -9 9
22 Birmingham 12 2 2 8 8 20 -12 8
23 Sheffield Weds 10 1 4 5 11 16 -5 7
24 Portsmouth 10 1 4 5 7 16 -9 7

Watford   Birmingham

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 4 Hull 24 8 16 1.7 1.5 12 5 7 40 37 41
2 13 Southampton 24 8 16 1.6 1.4 8 8 8 38 34 32
3 10 QPR 24 9 15 1.4 1.5 10 5 9 34 37 35
4 12 Leicester 24 9 15 1.4 1.4 9 7 8 34 34 34
5 1 Coventry 24 10 14 2.2 1.0 15 6 3 54 25 51
6 17 Sheffield United 24 10 14 1.4 1.5 9 2 13 33 37 29
7 24 Sheffield Weds 23 9 14 0.8 2.0 1 8 14 18 45 11
8 6 Watford 24 11 13 1.4 1.2 10 8 6 34 29 38
9 2 Middlesbrough 24 12 12 1.4 1.0 12 7 5 33 25 43
10 3 Ipswich 24 12 12 1.7 1.0 11 8 5 40 23 41
11 14 Derby 24 12 12 1.4 1.4 8 8 8 33 33 32
12 15 Birmingham 24 12 12 1.3 1.3 8 7 9 32 31 31
13 16 West Brom 24 12 12 1.2 1.3 9 4 11 28 32 31
14 22 Oxford 24 12 12 1.0 1.4 5 7 12 24 33 22
15 5 Millwall 24 13 11 1.1 1.3 11 6 7 27 32 39
16 9 Bristol City 24 13 11 1.4 1.1 10 6 8 33 27 36
17 11 Stoke 24 13 11 1.2 1.0 10 4 10 29 23 34
18 18 Swansea 24 13 11 1.0 1.3 8 5 11 25 31 29
19 23 Norwich 24 13 11 1.1 1.5 5 6 13 26 36 21
20 7 Preston 24 14 10 1.3 1.0 9 10 5 31 25 37
21 8 Wrexham 25 15 10 1.4 1.2 9 10 6 36 31 37
22 21 Portsmouth 23 13 10 0.9 1.3 6 7 10 21 30 25
23 19 Blackburn 24 15 9 0.9 1.2 7 6 11 22 28 27
24 20 Charlton 23 14 9 1.0 1.3 7 6 10 22 29 27
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 10 QPR 11 3 8 1.8 1.4 6 2 3 20 15 20
2 24 Sheffield Weds 13 5 8 0.5 2.2 0 4 9 7 29 4
3 3 Ipswich 12 5 7 1.8 0.8 7 4 1 22 10 25
4 4 Hull 12 5 7 1.6 1.5 7 2 3 19 18 23
5 6 Watford 12 5 7 1.7 1.0 7 4 1 20 12 25
6 8 Wrexham 13 6 7 1.8 1.5 6 5 2 24 19 23
7 22 Oxford 12 5 7 1.1 1.4 3 4 5 13 17 13
8 1 Coventry 12 6 6 2.2 0.8 9 2 1 27 9 29
9 2 Middlesbrough 12 6 6 1.3 0.9 7 3 2 16 11 24
10 5 Millwall 13 7 6 1.2 1.2 7 2 4 15 16 23
11 9 Bristol City 12 6 6 1.5 1.1 5 3 4 18 13 18
12 11 Stoke 12 6 6 1.5 0.8 6 2 4 18 10 20
13 12 Leicester 12 6 6 1.4 1.2 5 4 3 17 14 19
14 13 Southampton 11 5 6 1.5 1.0 5 4 2 17 11 19
15 15 Birmingham 12 6 6 2.0 0.9 6 5 1 24 11 23
16 17 Sheffield United 11 5 6 1.4 1.1 4 2 5 15 12 14
17 18 Swansea 12 6 6 1.2 1.3 5 3 4 15 16 18
18 21 Portsmouth 13 7 6 1.1 1.1 5 3 5 14 14 18
19 23 Norwich 12 6 6 1.0 1.4 3 1 8 12 17 10
20 7 Preston 12 7 5 1.3 1.0 5 5 2 16 12 20
21 16 West Brom 12 7 5 1.3 0.9 6 4 2 16 11 22
22 19 Blackburn 12 7 5 0.9 1.5 2 3 7 11 18 9
23 14 Derby 12 8 4 1.2 1.5 3 5 4 15 18 14
24 20 Charlton 10 6 4 1.2 1.1 5 2 3 12 11 17
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 13 Southampton 13 3 10 1.6 1.8 3 4 6 21 23 13
2 4 Hull 12 3 9 1.8 1.6 5 3 4 21 19 18
3 12 Leicester 12 3 9 1.4 1.7 4 3 5 17 20 15
4 1 Coventry 12 4 8 2.2 1.3 6 4 2 27 16 22
5 14 Derby 12 4 8 1.5 1.2 5 3 4 18 15 18
6 17 Sheffield United 13 5 8 1.4 1.9 5 0 8 18 25 15
7 10 QPR 13 6 7 1.1 1.7 4 3 6 14 22 15
8 16 West Brom 12 5 7 1.0 1.8 3 0 9 12 21 9
9 2 Middlesbrough 12 6 6 1.4 1.2 5 4 3 17 14 19
10 6 Watford 12 6 6 1.2 1.4 3 4 5 14 17 13
11 15 Birmingham 12 6 6 0.7 1.7 2 2 8 8 20 8
12 24 Sheffield Weds 10 4 6 1.1 1.6 1 4 5 11 16 7
13 3 Ipswich 12 7 5 1.5 1.1 4 4 4 18 13 16
14 5 Millwall 11 6 5 1.1 1.5 4 4 3 12 16 16
15 7 Preston 12 7 5 1.2 1.1 4 5 3 15 13 17
16 9 Bristol City 12 7 5 1.2 1.2 5 3 4 15 14 18
17 11 Stoke 12 7 5 0.9 1.1 4 2 6 11 13 14
18 18 Swansea 12 7 5 0.8 1.2 3 2 7 10 15 11
19 20 Charlton 13 8 5 0.8 1.4 2 4 7 10 18 10
20 22 Oxford 12 7 5 0.9 1.3 2 3 7 11 16 9
21 23 Norwich 12 7 5 1.2 1.6 2 5 5 14 19 11
22 19 Blackburn 12 8 4 0.9 0.8 5 3 4 11 10 18
23 21 Portsmouth 10 6 4 0.7 1.6 1 4 5 7 16 7
24 8 Wrexham 12 9 3 1.0 1.0 3 5 4 12 12 14

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51