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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
Portugal Primeira Liga ·

Estrela 4–0 Casa Pia

Full time · half time 3–0 · season 2025/2026

Home ✓ 2.40 fair 2.22
Draw 3.10 fair 4.05
Away 3.10 fair 3.31
Under 2.5 1.65 fair 2.17
Over 2.5 ✓ 2.20 fair 1.85

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Estrela Casa Pia
23 Shots 8
8 Shots on target 2
6 Corners 1
18 Fouls 20
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✗ BTTS missed Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (232 league matches this season so far).
Result Estrela to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.76
Expected goals 1.59 – 1.26
Home / Draw / Away
EstrelaDrawCasa Pia
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 11.6% 1–0 9.3% 2–1 9.2%

Statistics 2025/2026, before this match

Estrela before this match, all matches
0.96points / match
1.12scored / match
1.73conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 26 played · 29:45
Casa Pia before this match, all matches
0.96points / match
1.04scored / match
1.76conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 25 played · 26:44
Estrela all matches all matches Casa Pia

Per match

1.12 Goals scored 1.04
1.73 Goals conceded 1.76
2.85 Total goals 2.80
10.85 Shots 8.48
3.62 Shots on target 2.80
13.81 Shots faced 14.12
3.31 Corners 3.64
5.73 Corners against 6.00
14.69 Fouls 15.72
2.50 Yellow cards 3.00
0.50 1st-half goals scored 0.52
0.77 1st-half goals conceded 0.80

How often Full Time

19% Wins 20%
38% Draws 36%
42% Losses 44%
85% Over 0.5 goals 88%
77% Over 1.5 goals 84%
54% Over 2.5 goals 48%
38% Over 3.5 goals 32%
15% Over 4.5 goals 12%
8% Over 5.5 goals 8%
50% Both teams scored 48%
23% Clean sheets 20%
42% Failed to score 44%

How often Half Time

19% Wins 28%
35% Draws 32%
46% Losses 40%
73% Over 0.5 goals 72%
31% Over 1.5 goals 36%
19% Over 2.5 goals 16%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Estrela all matches
Casa Pia all matches
Estrela before this match, at home
1.08points / match
1.23scored / match
1.62conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 13 played · 16:21
Casa Pia before this match, away
0.92points / match
0.77scored / match
1.69conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 13 played · 10:22
Estrela at home away Casa Pia

Per match

1.23 Goals scored 0.77
1.62 Goals conceded 1.69
2.85 Total goals 2.46
13.46 Shots 9.15
3.92 Shots on target 2.85
12.54 Shots faced 14.46
3.69 Corners 4.38
4.85 Corners against 6.15
13.92 Fouls 14.69
2.46 Yellow cards 3.00
0.62 1st-half goals scored 0.23
0.62 1st-half goals conceded 0.85

How often Full Time

23% Wins 23%
38% Draws 23%
38% Losses 54%
92% Over 0.5 goals 85%
77% Over 1.5 goals 77%
54% Over 2.5 goals 54%
38% Over 3.5 goals 31%
15% Over 4.5 goals 0%
8% Over 5.5 goals 0%
46% Both teams scored 31%
23% Clean sheets 31%
38% Failed to score 54%

How often Half Time

23% Wins 15%
31% Draws 38%
46% Losses 46%
77% Over 0.5 goals 69%
31% Over 1.5 goals 31%
15% Over 2.5 goals 8%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Estrela at home
Casa Pia away

Last 10 matches before this match

Estrela all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
15.03.26 Rio Ave – Estrela 2–1 (1–0) 2.253.253.10 2.05 1.75
08.03.26 Estrela – Gil Vicente 2–2 (0–1) 4.753.201.79 2.25 1.62
28.02.26 AVS – Estrela 0–0 (0–0) 2.553.202.65 2.20 1.65
20.02.26 Estrela – Tondela 0–2 (0–1) 2.503.202.70 2.25 1.62
14.02.26 Guimaraes – Estrela 2–1 (0–1) 1.623.505.50 2.15 1.67
07.02.26 Estrela – Santa Clara 1–0 (0–0) 3.402.852.30 2.88 1.40
31.01.26 Alverca – Estrela 1–1 (0–0) 2.053.103.70 2.40 1.53
25.01.26 Benfica – Estrela 4–0 (1–0) 1.109.0019.00 1.50 2.50
19.01.26 Estrela – Estoril 0–5 (0–1) 2.703.302.45 1.93 1.93
03.01.26 Estrela – Sp Braga 3–3 (1–1) 6.504.331.45 1.85 2.00

Casa Pia all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
07.03.26 Estoril – Casa Pia 0–0 (0–0) 1.663.804.50 1.73 2.08
01.03.26 Casa Pia – Moreirense 1–1 (1–0) 2.653.002.75 2.50 1.50
23.02.26 Famalicao – Casa Pia 2–0 (1–0) 1.613.605.50 2.00 1.80
14.02.26 Casa Pia – Arouca 3–2 (3–2) 2.653.202.55 2.20 1.65
08.02.26 Nacional – Casa Pia 0–0 (0–0) 2.053.103.75 2.10 1.70
02.02.26 Casa Pia – Porto 2–1 (2–0) 12.005.001.25 1.80 2.00
23.01.26 Casa Pia – AVS 3–3 (1–0) 2.013.104.00 2.40 1.53
16.01.26 Sp Lisbon – Casa Pia 3–0 (2–0) 1.176.5013.00 1.57 2.35
04.01.26 Rio Ave – Casa Pia 3–1 (0–0) 2.323.053.05 2.40 1.53
28.12.25 Casa Pia – Guimaraes 0–0 (0–0) 3.302.952.25 2.40 1.53

Estrela at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
08.03.26 Estrela – Gil Vicente 2–2 (0–1) 4.753.201.79 2.25 1.62
20.02.26 Estrela – Tondela 0–2 (0–1) 2.503.202.70 2.25 1.62
07.02.26 Estrela – Santa Clara 1–0 (0–0) 3.402.852.30 2.88 1.40
19.01.26 Estrela – Estoril 0–5 (0–1) 2.703.302.45 1.93 1.93
03.01.26 Estrela – Sp Braga 3–3 (1–1) 6.504.331.45 1.85 2.00
20.12.25 Estrela – Moreirense 0–0 (0–0) 2.353.252.85 2.15 1.67
07.12.25 Estrela – Arouca 3–1 (2–0) 2.103.203.50 2.10 1.70
09.11.25 Estrela – Nacional 1–1 (0–1) 2.703.202.50 2.15 1.67
25.10.25 Estrela – Rio Ave 1–2 (1–0) 2.573.202.70 2.15 1.67
27.09.25 Estrela – AVS 3–0 (3–0) 2.053.103.80 2.40 1.53

Casa Pia away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
07.03.26 Estoril – Casa Pia 0–0 (0–0) 1.663.804.50 1.73 2.08
23.02.26 Famalicao – Casa Pia 2–0 (1–0) 1.613.605.50 2.00 1.80
08.02.26 Nacional – Casa Pia 0–0 (0–0) 2.053.103.75 2.10 1.70
16.01.26 Sp Lisbon – Casa Pia 3–0 (2–0) 1.176.5013.00 1.57 2.35
04.01.26 Rio Ave – Casa Pia 3–1 (0–0) 2.323.053.05 2.40 1.53
21.12.25 Tondela – Casa Pia 1–2 (0–0) 2.153.253.40 2.25 1.62
06.12.25 Santa Clara – Casa Pia 1–0 (1–0) 1.813.055.00 2.60 1.48
09.11.25 Benfica – Casa Pia 2–2 (1–0) 1.137.5013.00 1.53 2.40
26.10.25 Sp Braga – Casa Pia 4–0 (2–0) 1.394.507.00 1.90 1.95
27.09.25 Moreirense – Casa Pia 2–1 (1–1) 2.053.303.60 2.50 1.50

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Estrela winsDrawsCasa Pia wins
5matches
3.00goals / match
40%over 2.5
40%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
01.11.25P1 Casa Pia – Estrela 3–5 (1–2) 2.013.053.90 2.40 1.53
09.02.25P1 Casa Pia – Estrela 1–0 (1–0) 1.803.404.50 2.30 1.60
31.08.24P1 Estrela – Casa Pia 0–1 (0–0) 2.303.203.20 2.35 1.57
08.03.24P1 Estrela – Casa Pia 3–1 (0–0) 2.203.003.60 2.40 1.53
08.10.23P1 Casa Pia – Estrela 0–1 (0–0) 1.953.203.60 2.15 1.67

Portugal Primeira Liga table 2025/2026, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 26 22 3 1 52 10 +42 69 DWWWDW
2 Sp Lisbon 25 19 5 1 64 14 +50 62 WDWWWD
3 Benfica 26 18 8 0 55 17 +38 62 WWWWDW
4 Sp Braga 25 13 7 5 52 25 +27 46 WWLWWD
5 Gil Vicente 26 11 9 6 39 27 +12 42 WWLLDD
6 Famalicao 26 12 6 8 32 22 +10 42 WLWDWW
7 Estoril 26 10 7 9 47 42 +5 37 DLWLDW
8 Moreirense 26 10 5 11 31 38 -7 35 LWLDDL
9 Guimaraes 26 9 5 12 29 39 -10 32 LWLDLL
10 Alverca 26 7 8 11 26 41 -15 29 LDDDDD
11 Rio Ave 26 6 9 11 26 45 -19 27 LLLDWW
12 Arouca 26 7 5 14 33 55 -22 26 WLWLLL
13 Santa Clara 26 6 7 13 23 31 -8 25 LLDDWW
14 Estrela 26 5 10 11 29 45 -16 25 WLLDDL
15 Casa Pia 25 5 9 11 26 44 -18 24 WDWLDD
16 Nacional 26 5 7 14 29 38 -9 22 DLLLDL
17 Tondela 25 4 7 14 19 39 -20 19 DDDWDL
18 AVS 26 1 7 18 18 58 -40 10 LWLDDL
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 13 11 2 0 27 4 +23 35 WWDWWW
2 Sp Lisbon 12 10 1 1 36 4 +32 31 WWWWWW
3 Benfica 13 8 5 0 30 10 +20 29 WWWWWD
4 Sp Braga 12 7 3 2 27 11 +16 24 WDWWWD
5 Gil Vicente 13 7 3 3 22 12 +10 24 DWWWLD
6 Famalicao 13 7 2 4 22 9 +13 23 WLWWWW
7 Estoril 13 6 5 2 26 17 +9 23 WWWDWD
8 Guimaraes 14 6 4 4 19 18 +1 22 WLWWDL
9 Moreirense 12 6 2 4 16 17 -1 20 LWWLLD
10 Alverca 13 5 4 4 11 16 -5 19 LWWDDD
11 Arouca 13 4 3 6 18 25 -7 15 WDLWWL
12 Santa Clara 13 4 2 7 12 14 -2 14 DLLLLW
13 Estrela 13 3 5 5 16 21 -5 14 DDLWLD
14 Rio Ave 13 3 4 6 13 21 -8 13 WLLLDW
15 Casa Pia 12 2 6 4 16 22 -6 12 DDDWWD
16 Nacional 13 3 2 8 17 21 -4 11 DWDLLL
17 Tondela 13 1 5 7 9 17 -8 8 WLDDDL
18 AVS 14 1 4 9 10 24 -14 7 LLLWDL
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts Streak
1 Porto 13 11 1 1 25 6 +19 34 WWWLWD
2 Benfica 13 10 3 0 25 7 +18 33 DWDWWW
3 Sp Lisbon 13 9 4 0 28 10 +18 31 WDWDWD
4 Sp Braga 13 6 4 3 25 14 +11 22 LDWWLW
5 Famalicao 13 5 4 4 10 13 -3 19 LWLLDW
6 Gil Vicente 13 4 6 3 17 15 +2 18 DDLWLD
7 Moreirense 14 4 3 7 15 21 -6 15 WLLWDL
8 Estoril 13 4 2 7 21 25 -4 14 LWWLLW
9 Rio Ave 13 3 5 5 13 24 -11 14 DLLLLW
10 Casa Pia 13 3 3 7 10 22 -12 12 WLLDLD
11 Nacional 13 2 5 6 12 17 -5 11 DLLLLD
12 Santa Clara 13 2 5 6 11 17 -6 11 DLLDDW
13 Estrela 13 2 5 6 13 24 -11 11 WLDLDL
14 Tondela 12 3 2 7 10 22 -12 11 WLLLDW
15 Arouca 13 3 2 8 15 30 -15 11 LWWLLL
16 Alverca 13 2 4 7 15 25 -10 10 LLLDDD
17 Guimaraes 12 3 1 8 10 21 -11 10 WDLLLL
18 AVS 12 0 3 9 8 34 -26 3 LLDLLD

Estrela   Casa Pia

Under / Over goals 2025/2026, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 3 Benfica 26 8 18 2.1 0.7 18 8 0 55 17 62 OOOOOO
2 4 Sp Braga 25 7 18 2.1 1.0 13 7 5 52 25 46 OOOOOO
3 12 Arouca 26 8 18 1.3 2.1 7 5 14 33 55 26 OOOOUO
4 2 Sp Lisbon 25 8 17 2.6 0.6 19 5 1 64 14 62 OUUOOO
5 7 Estoril 26 9 17 1.8 1.6 10 7 9 47 42 37 OOOOUU
6 11 Rio Ave 26 10 16 1.0 1.7 6 9 11 26 45 27 OOUUUO
7 18 AVS 26 10 16 0.7 2.2 1 7 18 18 58 10 OOOUUU
8 8 Moreirense 26 11 15 1.2 1.5 10 5 11 31 38 35 OOOUUO
9 1 Porto 26 12 14 2.0 0.4 22 3 1 52 10 69 UUUOOO
10 14 Estrela 26 12 14 1.1 1.7 5 10 11 29 45 25 UOUUOO
11 5 Gil Vicente 26 13 13 1.5 1.0 11 9 6 39 27 42 OOOOOO
12 10 Alverca 26 13 13 1.0 1.6 7 8 11 26 41 29 OUUUUO
13 16 Nacional 26 13 13 1.1 1.5 5 7 14 29 38 22 UUOOUU
14 17 Tondela 25 12 13 0.8 1.6 4 7 14 19 39 19 UOUUOU
15 9 Guimaraes 26 14 12 1.1 1.5 9 5 12 29 39 32 OOOUUO
16 15 Casa Pia 25 13 12 1.0 1.8 5 9 11 26 44 24 OUOUUU
17 6 Famalicao 26 16 10 1.2 0.8 12 6 8 32 22 42 OUUUUO
18 13 Santa Clara 26 17 9 0.9 1.2 6 7 13 23 31 25 UOUOUU
Home – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 2 Sp Lisbon 12 3 9 3.0 0.3 10 1 1 36 4 31 OOOOUO
2 3 Benfica 13 4 9 2.3 0.8 8 5 0 30 10 29 UOOOOO
3 4 Sp Braga 12 3 9 2.2 0.9 7 3 2 27 11 24 UOOOOO
4 12 Arouca 13 4 9 1.4 1.9 4 3 6 18 25 15 UOOOOO
5 8 Moreirense 12 4 8 1.3 1.4 6 2 4 16 17 20 OUUOOU
6 9 Guimaraes 14 6 8 1.4 1.3 6 4 4 19 18 22 OUUOUO
7 11 Rio Ave 13 5 8 1.0 1.6 3 4 6 13 21 13 OUOOUO
8 16 Nacional 13 5 8 1.3 1.6 3 2 8 17 21 11 OOUUOU
9 1 Porto 13 6 7 2.1 0.3 11 2 0 27 4 35 UOUUOO
10 6 Famalicao 13 6 7 1.7 0.7 7 2 4 22 9 23 OOOOUU
11 7 Estoril 13 6 7 2.0 1.3 6 5 2 26 17 23 UOOOOU
12 14 Estrela 13 6 7 1.2 1.6 3 5 5 16 21 14 UOOUUO
13 18 AVS 14 7 7 0.7 1.7 1 4 9 10 24 7 UUOOUU
14 5 Gil Vicente 13 7 6 1.7 0.9 7 3 3 22 12 24 UOOOOO
15 10 Alverca 13 8 5 0.8 1.2 5 4 4 11 16 19 OUOUUU
16 13 Santa Clara 13 8 5 0.9 1.1 4 2 7 12 14 14 UUUOOU
17 15 Casa Pia 12 7 5 1.3 1.8 2 6 4 16 22 12 UUOOOU
18 17 Tondela 13 8 5 0.7 1.3 1 5 7 9 17 8 OUUUOU
Away – Under/Over goals
# Streak
1 7 Estoril 13 3 10 1.6 1.9 4 2 7 21 25 14 OOOOOU
2 3 Benfica 13 4 9 1.9 0.5 10 3 0 25 7 33 OUUOOO
3 4 Sp Braga 13 4 9 1.9 1.1 6 4 3 25 14 22 UOUOOO
4 12 Arouca 13 4 9 1.2 2.3 3 2 8 15 30 11 OUOOOU
5 18 AVS 12 3 9 0.7 2.8 0 3 9 8 34 3 OUOOOU
6 2 Sp Lisbon 13 5 8 2.2 0.8 9 4 0 28 10 31 OUOUOO
7 10 Alverca 13 5 8 1.2 1.9 2 4 7 15 25 10 OOOUUO
8 11 Rio Ave 13 5 8 1.0 1.8 3 5 5 13 24 14 OOOOUU
9 17 Tondela 12 4 8 0.8 1.8 3 2 7 10 22 11 UOUOOU
10 1 Porto 13 6 7 1.9 0.5 11 1 1 25 6 34 OUUOUO
11 5 Gil Vicente 13 6 7 1.3 1.2 4 6 3 17 15 18 UOOOOO
12 8 Moreirense 14 7 7 1.1 1.5 4 3 7 15 21 15 UOUOUO
13 14 Estrela 13 6 7 1.0 1.8 2 5 6 13 24 11 OOUOUO
14 15 Casa Pia 13 6 7 0.8 1.7 3 3 7 10 22 12 OOOUUU
15 16 Nacional 13 8 5 0.9 1.3 2 5 6 12 17 11 OOOOOU
16 9 Guimaraes 12 8 4 0.8 1.8 3 1 8 10 21 10 UUOOOU
17 13 Santa Clara 13 9 4 0.8 1.3 2 5 6 11 17 11 OUUUOU
18 6 Famalicao 13 10 3 0.8 1.0 5 4 4 10 13 19 UUOUUO

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Streak = last 6 matches, oldest left: O / U over or under the line, Y / N on the BTTS tab. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 4 Nov 2026, 21:10