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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: J Smith

Southampton 3–2 Watford

Full time · half time 2–1 · season 2023/2024

Home ✓ 1.44 fair 1.90
Draw 5.00 fair 4.53
Away 6.50 fair 3.98
Under 2.5 2.50 fair 2.65
Over 2.5 ✓ 1.53 fair 1.60

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Southampton Watford
13 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 6
6 Corners 3
6 Fouls 15
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (503 league matches this season so far).
Result Southampton to win
Goals Over 2.5
Both teams score Yes fair 1.62
Expected goals 1.94 – 1.28
Home / Draw / Away
SouthamptonDrawWatford
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–1 9.9% 2–1 9.6% 1–0 7.8%

Statistics 2023/2024, before this match

Southampton before this match, all matches
1.95points / match
1.95scored / match
1.30conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 40 played · 78:52
Watford before this match, all matches
1.24points / match
1.36scored / match
1.31conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 42 played · 57:55
Southampton all matches all matches Watford

Per match

1.95 Goals scored 1.36
1.30 Goals conceded 1.31
3.25 Total goals 2.67
15.58 Shots 13.36
5.98 Shots on target 4.17
11.08 Shots faced 12.52
7.80 Corners 5.43
4.13 Corners against 4.79
10.10 Fouls 12.64
2.28 Yellow cards 2.17
0.95 1st-half goals scored 0.60
0.58 1st-half goals conceded 0.69

How often Full Time

57% Wins 29%
23% Draws 38%
20% Losses 33%
98% Over 0.5 goals 88%
85% Over 1.5 goals 69%
63% Over 2.5 goals 50%
38% Over 3.5 goals 31%
20% Over 4.5 goals 19%
10% Over 5.5 goals 10%
68% Both teams scored 55%
28% Clean sheets 29%
8% Failed to score 29%

How often Half Time

50% Wins 10%
30% Draws 64%
20% Losses 26%
78% Over 0.5 goals 60%
45% Over 1.5 goals 40%
20% Over 2.5 goals 17%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Southampton all matches
Watford all matches
Southampton before this match, at home
2.10points / match
2.40scored / match
1.30conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 20 played · 48:26
Watford before this match, away
1.38points / match
1.24scored / match
1.29conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 21 played · 26:27
Southampton at home away Watford

Per match

2.40 Goals scored 1.24
1.30 Goals conceded 1.29
3.70 Total goals 2.52
16.00 Shots 11.33
6.55 Shots on target 3.43
10.35 Shots faced 15.52
7.80 Corners 3.86
3.75 Corners against 6.19
9.85 Fouls 13.24
2.55 Yellow cards 2.38
1.10 1st-half goals scored 0.38
0.70 1st-half goals conceded 0.62

How often Full Time

65% Wins 33%
15% Draws 38%
20% Losses 29%
100% Over 0.5 goals 86%
90% Over 1.5 goals 62%
75% Over 2.5 goals 43%
45% Over 3.5 goals 24%
25% Over 4.5 goals 19%
15% Over 5.5 goals 19%
70% Both teams scored 48%
25% Clean sheets 29%
5% Failed to score 38%

How often Half Time

55% Wins 5%
15% Draws 67%
30% Losses 29%
90% Over 0.5 goals 52%
55% Over 1.5 goals 29%
20% Over 2.5 goals 10%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Southampton at home
Watford away

Last 10 matches before this match

Southampton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.04.24 Southampton – Coventry 2–1 (2–0) 1.754.004.20 1.44 2.75
06.04.24 Blackburn – Southampton 0–0 (0–0) 4.004.001.80 1.50 2.63
01.04.24 Ipswich – Southampton 3–2 (1–2) 2.503.602.70 1.57 2.35
29.03.24 Southampton – Middlesbrough 1–1 (1–0) 1.574.505.25 1.48 2.60
09.03.24 Southampton – Sunderland 4–2 (2–0) 1.444.507.00 1.57 2.35
02.03.24 Birmingham – Southampton 3–4 (2–1) 4.003.801.85 1.62 2.25
24.02.24 Southampton – Millwall 1–2 (1–2) 1.365.008.00 1.62 2.25
20.02.24 Southampton – Hull 1–2 (0–2) 1.574.335.50 1.53 2.40
16.02.24 West Brom – Southampton 0–2 (0–1) 2.883.602.30 1.75 2.05
13.02.24 Bristol City – Southampton 3–1 (0–0) 4.203.601.80 1.93 1.93

Watford all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.04.24 Ipswich – Watford 0–0 (0–0) 1.504.336.50 1.62 2.30
06.04.24 Watford – Preston 0–0 (0–0) 2.053.403.75 2.10 1.73
01.04.24 West Brom – Watford 2–2 (0–0) 1.853.504.33 2.08 1.73
29.03.24 Watford – Leeds 2–2 (2–1) 6.004.331.55 1.70 2.10
16.03.24 Birmingham – Watford 0–1 (0–1) 2.453.253.00 1.93 1.93
09.03.24 Watford – Coventry 1–2 (1–1) 2.883.402.40 1.85 2.00
06.03.24 Watford – Swansea 1–1 (0–1) 2.203.503.25 1.93 1.93
02.03.24 Millwall – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 2.383.303.00 2.10 1.70
24.02.24 Watford – Huddersfield 1–2 (0–0) 1.953.504.00 1.98 1.88
17.02.24 Rotherham – Watford 0–1 (0–0) 4.333.501.85 2.05 1.75

Southampton at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.04.24 Southampton – Coventry 2–1 (2–0) 1.754.004.20 1.44 2.75
29.03.24 Southampton – Middlesbrough 1–1 (1–0) 1.574.505.25 1.48 2.60
09.03.24 Southampton – Sunderland 4–2 (2–0) 1.444.507.00 1.57 2.35
24.02.24 Southampton – Millwall 1–2 (1–2) 1.365.008.00 1.62 2.25
20.02.24 Southampton – Hull 1–2 (0–2) 1.574.335.50 1.53 2.40
10.02.24 Southampton – Huddersfield 5–3 (0–2) 1.305.5010.00 1.60 2.30
13.01.24 Southampton – Sheffield Weds 4–0 (1–0) 1.404.757.00 1.70 2.10
29.12.23 Southampton – Plymouth 2–1 (0–0) 1.335.757.50 1.40 2.88
26.12.23 Southampton – Swansea 5–0 (1–0) 1.405.007.50 1.57 2.35
16.12.23 Southampton – Blackburn 4–0 (1–0) 1.654.005.00 1.53 2.40

Watford away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
10.04.24 Ipswich – Watford 0–0 (0–0) 1.504.336.50 1.62 2.30
01.04.24 West Brom – Watford 2–2 (0–0) 1.853.504.33 2.08 1.73
16.03.24 Birmingham – Watford 0–1 (0–1) 2.453.253.00 1.93 1.93
02.03.24 Millwall – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 2.383.303.00 2.10 1.70
17.02.24 Rotherham – Watford 0–1 (0–0) 4.333.501.85 2.05 1.75
13.02.24 Norwich – Watford 4–2 (2–1) 2.103.403.40 1.93 1.93
31.01.24 Sheffield Weds – Watford 0–0 (0–0) 2.633.302.63 2.00 1.85
20.01.24 Bristol City – Watford 1–1 (1–1) 2.453.253.00 2.08 1.73
14.01.24 QPR – Watford 1–2 (0–0) 3.003.252.45 2.15 1.67
01.01.24 Plymouth – Watford 3–3 (3–2) 3.103.602.20 1.67 2.15

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Southampton winsDrawsWatford wins
3matches
2.00goals / match
33%over 2.5
67%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
09.12.23E1 Watford – Southampton 1–1 (0–0) 3.253.402.20 1.98 1.88
13.03.22E0 Southampton – Watford 1–2 (1–2) 1.604.205.25 1.80 2.00
30.10.21E0 Watford – Southampton 0–1 (0–1) 3.203.302.30 1.90 1.90

England Championship table 2023/2024, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Leicester 42 28 4 10 79 38 +41 88
2 Ipswich 42 26 10 6 84 52 +32 88
3 Leeds 43 26 9 8 76 34 +42 87
4 Southampton 40 23 9 8 78 52 +26 78
5 West Brom 42 20 12 10 66 41 +25 72
6 Norwich 42 20 8 14 75 60 +15 68
7 Coventry 41 17 12 12 66 49 +17 63
8 Preston 41 18 9 14 56 56 0 63
9 Middlesbrough 42 18 8 16 60 55 +5 62
10 Hull 41 17 11 13 59 54 +5 62
11 Cardiff 42 18 5 19 47 57 -10 59
12 Bristol City 42 16 9 17 49 45 +4 57
13 Sunderland 42 15 8 19 51 50 +1 53
14 Watford 42 12 16 14 57 55 +2 52
15 Swansea 42 13 11 18 52 62 -10 50
16 Blackburn 43 13 10 20 57 71 -14 49
17 Plymouth 43 12 12 19 58 66 -8 48
18 QPR 42 12 11 19 40 54 -14 47
19 Millwall 42 12 11 19 39 54 -15 47
20 Stoke 42 12 10 20 40 59 -19 46
21 Huddersfield 42 9 16 17 46 69 -23 43
22 Sheffield Weds 42 12 7 23 35 66 -31 43
23 Birmingham 42 11 9 22 45 64 -19 42
24 Rotherham 42 4 11 27 32 84 -52 23
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Leeds 22 16 5 1 44 14 +30 53
2 Ipswich 21 15 5 1 56 31 +25 50
3 Norwich 21 15 2 4 40 19 +21 47
4 Leicester 20 15 1 4 40 15 +25 46
5 West Brom 21 14 4 3 35 16 +19 46
6 Southampton 20 13 3 4 48 26 +22 42
7 Preston 21 11 4 6 35 32 +3 37
8 Coventry 20 9 8 3 32 20 +12 35
9 Bristol City 21 10 3 8 28 20 +8 33
10 Plymouth 22 9 5 8 40 35 +5 32
11 Sunderland 21 10 2 9 30 27 +3 32
12 Middlesbrough 21 9 4 8 24 21 +3 31
13 Birmingham 21 8 6 7 27 25 +2 30
14 Cardiff 21 9 3 9 24 27 -3 30
15 Hull 21 7 8 6 29 24 +5 29
16 Sheffield Weds 21 7 6 8 23 26 -3 27
17 Swansea 21 7 5 9 25 27 -2 26
18 Millwall 21 7 5 9 18 28 -10 26
19 Huddersfield 21 6 7 8 25 31 -6 25
20 Blackburn 21 6 6 9 26 31 -5 24
21 Stoke 21 6 6 9 17 27 -10 24
22 Watford 21 5 8 8 31 28 +3 23
23 QPR 21 5 6 10 23 32 -9 21
24 Rotherham 21 4 7 10 19 26 -7 19
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Leicester 22 13 3 6 39 23 +16 42
2 Ipswich 21 11 5 5 28 21 +7 38
3 Southampton 20 10 6 4 30 26 +4 36
4 Leeds 21 10 4 7 32 20 +12 34
5 Hull 20 10 3 7 30 30 0 33
6 Middlesbrough 21 9 4 8 36 34 +2 31
7 Watford 21 7 8 6 26 27 -1 29
8 Cardiff 21 9 2 10 23 30 -7 29
9 Coventry 21 8 4 9 34 29 +5 28
10 West Brom 21 6 8 7 31 25 +6 26
11 Preston 20 7 5 8 21 24 -3 26
12 QPR 21 7 5 9 17 22 -5 26
13 Blackburn 22 7 4 11 31 40 -9 25
14 Bristol City 21 6 6 9 21 25 -4 24
15 Swansea 21 6 6 9 27 35 -8 24
16 Stoke 21 6 4 11 23 32 -9 22
17 Sunderland 21 5 6 10 21 23 -2 21
18 Millwall 21 5 6 10 21 26 -5 21
19 Norwich 21 5 6 10 35 41 -6 21
20 Huddersfield 21 3 9 9 21 38 -17 18
21 Plymouth 21 3 7 11 18 31 -13 16
22 Sheffield Weds 21 5 1 15 12 40 -28 16
23 Birmingham 21 3 3 15 18 39 -21 12
24 Rotherham 21 0 4 17 13 58 -45 4

Southampton   Watford

Under / Over goals 2023/2024, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 16 Blackburn 43 15 28 1.3 1.7 13 10 20 57 71 49
2 6 Norwich 42 15 27 1.8 1.4 20 8 14 75 60 68
3 2 Ipswich 42 16 26 2.0 1.2 26 10 6 84 52 88
4 4 Southampton 40 15 25 1.9 1.3 23 9 8 78 52 78
5 7 Coventry 41 16 25 1.6 1.2 17 12 12 66 49 63
6 1 Leicester 42 18 24 1.9 0.9 28 4 10 79 38 88
7 8 Preston 41 17 24 1.4 1.4 18 9 14 56 56 63
8 10 Hull 41 17 24 1.4 1.3 17 11 13 59 54 62
9 15 Swansea 42 18 24 1.2 1.5 13 11 18 52 62 50
10 17 Plymouth 43 19 24 1.3 1.5 12 12 19 58 66 48
11 3 Leeds 43 21 22 1.8 0.8 26 9 8 76 34 87
12 24 Rotherham 42 20 22 0.8 2.0 4 11 27 32 84 23
13 9 Middlesbrough 42 21 21 1.4 1.3 18 8 16 60 55 62
14 13 Sunderland 42 21 21 1.2 1.2 15 8 19 51 50 53
15 14 Watford 42 21 21 1.4 1.3 12 16 14 57 55 52
16 11 Cardiff 42 22 20 1.1 1.4 18 5 19 47 57 59
17 21 Huddersfield 42 22 20 1.1 1.6 9 16 17 46 69 43
18 23 Birmingham 42 22 20 1.1 1.5 11 9 22 45 64 42
19 5 West Brom 42 23 19 1.6 1.0 20 12 10 66 41 72
20 22 Sheffield Weds 42 23 19 0.8 1.6 12 7 23 35 66 43
21 18 QPR 42 24 18 1.0 1.3 12 11 19 40 54 47
22 20 Stoke 42 24 18 1.0 1.4 12 10 20 40 59 46
23 12 Bristol City 42 26 16 1.2 1.1 16 9 17 49 45 57
24 19 Millwall 42 26 16 0.9 1.3 12 11 19 39 54 47
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 2 Ipswich 21 4 17 2.7 1.5 15 5 1 56 31 50
2 8 Preston 21 5 16 1.7 1.5 11 4 6 35 32 37
3 4 Southampton 20 5 15 2.4 1.3 13 3 4 48 26 42
4 17 Plymouth 22 8 14 1.8 1.6 9 5 8 40 35 32
5 3 Leeds 22 9 13 2.0 0.6 16 5 1 44 14 53
6 13 Sunderland 21 8 13 1.4 1.3 10 2 9 30 27 32
7 1 Leicester 20 8 12 2.0 0.8 15 1 4 40 15 46
8 14 Watford 21 9 12 1.5 1.3 5 8 8 31 28 23
9 15 Swansea 21 9 12 1.2 1.3 7 5 9 25 27 26
10 16 Blackburn 21 9 12 1.2 1.5 6 6 9 26 31 24
11 6 Norwich 21 10 11 1.9 0.9 15 2 4 40 19 47
12 18 QPR 21 10 11 1.1 1.5 5 6 10 23 32 21
13 21 Huddersfield 21 10 11 1.2 1.5 6 7 8 25 31 25
14 7 Coventry 20 10 10 1.6 1.0 9 8 3 32 20 35
15 22 Sheffield Weds 21 11 10 1.1 1.2 7 6 8 23 26 27
16 23 Birmingham 21 11 10 1.3 1.2 8 6 7 27 25 30
17 10 Hull 21 12 9 1.4 1.1 7 8 6 29 24 29
18 11 Cardiff 21 12 9 1.1 1.3 9 3 9 24 27 30
19 5 West Brom 21 13 8 1.7 0.8 14 4 3 35 16 46
20 19 Millwall 21 13 8 0.9 1.3 7 5 9 18 28 26
21 20 Stoke 21 13 8 0.8 1.3 6 6 9 17 27 24
22 24 Rotherham 21 13 8 0.9 1.2 4 7 10 19 26 19
23 12 Bristol City 21 14 7 1.3 1.0 10 3 8 28 20 33
24 9 Middlesbrough 21 15 6 1.1 1.0 9 4 8 24 21 31
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 6 Norwich 21 5 16 1.7 2.0 5 6 10 35 41 21
2 16 Blackburn 22 6 16 1.4 1.8 7 4 11 31 40 25
3 7 Coventry 21 6 15 1.6 1.4 8 4 9 34 29 28
4 9 Middlesbrough 21 6 15 1.7 1.6 9 4 8 36 34 31
5 10 Hull 20 5 15 1.5 1.5 10 3 7 30 30 33
6 24 Rotherham 21 7 14 0.6 2.8 0 4 17 13 58 4
7 1 Leicester 22 10 12 1.8 1.0 13 3 6 39 23 42
8 15 Swansea 21 9 12 1.3 1.7 6 6 9 27 35 24
9 5 West Brom 21 10 11 1.5 1.2 6 8 7 31 25 26
10 11 Cardiff 21 10 11 1.1 1.4 9 2 10 23 30 29
11 4 Southampton 20 10 10 1.5 1.3 10 6 4 30 26 36
12 17 Plymouth 21 11 10 0.9 1.5 3 7 11 18 31 16
13 20 Stoke 21 11 10 1.1 1.5 6 4 11 23 32 22
14 23 Birmingham 21 11 10 0.9 1.9 3 3 15 18 39 12
15 2 Ipswich 21 12 9 1.3 1.0 11 5 5 28 21 38
16 3 Leeds 21 12 9 1.5 1.0 10 4 7 32 20 34
17 12 Bristol City 21 12 9 1.0 1.2 6 6 9 21 25 24
18 14 Watford 21 12 9 1.2 1.3 7 8 6 26 27 29
19 21 Huddersfield 21 12 9 1.0 1.8 3 9 9 21 38 18
20 22 Sheffield Weds 21 12 9 0.6 1.9 5 1 15 12 40 16
21 8 Preston 20 12 8 1.1 1.2 7 5 8 21 24 26
22 13 Sunderland 21 13 8 1.0 1.1 5 6 10 21 23 21
23 19 Millwall 21 13 8 1.0 1.2 5 6 10 21 26 21
24 18 QPR 21 14 7 0.8 1.0 7 5 9 17 22 26

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 30 Oct 2026, 22:44