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BetGPS Football Betting Resources
England Championship · ·Referee: J Smith

Luton 2–0 Watford

Full time · half time 1–0 · season 2022/2023

Home ✓ 2.15 fair 2.29
Draw 3.25 fair 3.53
Away 3.60 fair 3.58
Under 2.5 ✓ 1.57 fair 1.63
Over 2.5 2.38 fair 2.58

Bet365 odds before kick-off. Highlighted = our prediction. ✓ = what happened. "Fair" = odds that would match our model's probability.

Match facts

Luton Watford
13 Shots 2
6 Shots on target 1
9 Corners 3
14 Fouls 12
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Our pre-match prediction

✓ Result correct ✓ Goals correct ✓ BTTS correct Calculated after the match, using only matches played before kick-off (454 league matches this season so far).
Result Luton to win
Goals Under 2.5
Both teams score No fair 1.80
Expected goals 1.28 – 0.96
Home / Draw / Away
LutonDrawWatford
Under / Over 2.5 goals
Under 2.5Over 2.5
Both teams to score
NoYes
Total goals in the match
Most likely scores
1–0 13.6% 1–1 13.1% 0–0 10.6%

Statistics 2022/2023, before this match

Luton before this match, all matches
1.68points / match
1.21scored / match
0.92conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 38 played · 46:35
Watford before this match, all matches
1.45points / match
1.18scored / match
1.05conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 38 played · 45:40
Luton all matches all matches Watford

Per match

1.21 Goals scored 1.18
0.92 Goals conceded 1.05
2.13 Total goals 2.24
11.71 Shots 11.32
3.74 Shots on target 3.82
11.11 Shots faced 11.79
5.92 Corners 4.92
4.87 Corners against 5.11
12.50 Fouls 11.82
1.89 Yellow cards 2.03
0.61 1st-half goals scored 0.55
0.42 1st-half goals conceded 0.55

How often Full Time

45% Wins 37%
34% Draws 34%
21% Losses 29%
92% Over 0.5 goals 89%
66% Over 1.5 goals 71%
32% Over 2.5 goals 37%
16% Over 3.5 goals 21%
5% Over 4.5 goals 5%
3% Over 5.5 goals 0%
45% Both teams scored 42%
42% Clean sheets 37%
21% Failed to score 32%

How often Half Time

39% Wins 29%
45% Draws 45%
16% Losses 26%
63% Over 0.5 goals 71%
26% Over 1.5 goals 32%
8% Over 2.5 goals 8%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Luton all matches
Watford all matches
Luton before this match, at home
1.53points / match
1.26scored / match
1.00conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 19 played · 24:19
Watford before this match, away
1.16points / match
0.89scored / match
1.21conceded / match
WonDrawnLost 19 played · 17:23
Luton at home away Watford

Per match

1.26 Goals scored 0.89
1.00 Goals conceded 1.21
2.26 Total goals 2.11
13.95 Shots 10.05
4.16 Shots on target 3.11
10.74 Shots faced 13.00
7.26 Corners 4.89
4.63 Corners against 5.58
11.84 Fouls 11.63
1.47 Yellow cards 2.11
0.74 1st-half goals scored 0.37
0.37 1st-half goals conceded 0.68

How often Full Time

37% Wins 26%
42% Draws 37%
21% Losses 37%
89% Over 0.5 goals 89%
58% Over 1.5 goals 68%
37% Over 2.5 goals 32%
26% Over 3.5 goals 21%
11% Over 4.5 goals 0%
5% Over 5.5 goals 0%
53% Both teams scored 37%
37% Clean sheets 32%
21% Failed to score 42%

How often Half Time

53% Wins 16%
32% Draws 53%
16% Losses 32%
68% Over 0.5 goals 68%
16% Over 1.5 goals 32%
16% Over 2.5 goals 5%

Goals in the last 10 matches (scored up, conceded down; oldest left)

Luton at home
Watford away

Last 10 matches before this match

Luton all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
18.03.23 Sunderland – Luton 1–1 (0–0) 2.603.302.70 2.20 1.67
15.03.23 Luton – Bristol City 1–0 (1–0) 1.853.504.50 2.10 1.73
11.03.23 Sheffield United – Luton 0–1 (0–0) 1.953.504.00 2.20 1.67
04.03.23 Luton – Swansea 1–0 (1–0) 2.003.304.00 2.10 1.73
28.02.23 Luton – Millwall 2–2 (0–1) 2.203.103.60 2.63 1.50
25.02.23 Birmingham – Luton 0–1 (0–0) 2.903.202.55 2.30 1.62
18.02.23 Luton – Burnley 0–1 (0–0) 3.303.302.20 2.20 1.67
15.02.23 Preston – Luton 1–1 (0–0) 2.883.002.70 2.38 1.57
11.02.23 Coventry – Luton 1–1 (1–1) 2.253.403.20 2.10 1.73
04.02.23 Luton – Stoke 1–0 (1–0) 2.253.303.30 2.20 1.67

Watford all matches

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
18.03.23 Watford – Wigan 1–1 (1–0) 1.703.605.25 2.20 1.67
14.03.23 Watford – Birmingham 3–0 (2–0) 1.833.604.33 2.38 1.57
11.03.23 QPR – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 3.203.252.30 2.10 1.73
04.03.23 Watford – Preston 0–0 (0–0) 1.833.504.50 2.20 1.67
25.02.23 Sheffield United – Watford 1–0 (0–0) 1.853.603.80 2.02 1.83
20.02.23 Watford – West Brom 3–2 (1–0) 2.633.402.55 2.10 1.73
14.02.23 Burnley – Watford 1–1 (0–1) 1.673.805.25 1.95 1.90
11.02.23 Watford – Blackburn 1–1 (0–1) 1.913.404.33 2.10 1.73
04.02.23 Reading – Watford 2–2 (0–1) 2.803.302.55 2.20 1.67
28.01.23 Middlesbrough – Watford 2–0 (2–0) 1.913.404.33 2.10 1.73

Luton at home

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
15.03.23 Luton – Bristol City 1–0 (1–0) 1.853.504.50 2.10 1.73
04.03.23 Luton – Swansea 1–0 (1–0) 2.003.304.00 2.10 1.73
28.02.23 Luton – Millwall 2–2 (0–1) 2.203.103.60 2.63 1.50
18.02.23 Luton – Burnley 0–1 (0–0) 3.303.302.20 2.20 1.67
04.02.23 Luton – Stoke 1–0 (1–0) 2.253.303.30 2.20 1.67
31.01.23 Luton – Cardiff 1–0 (0–0) 2.003.404.20 2.30 1.62
14.01.23 Luton – West Brom 2–3 (2–1) 3.003.202.45 2.20 1.67
26.12.22 Luton – Norwich 2–1 (0–0) 2.603.302.75 2.10 1.73
12.11.22 Luton – Rotherham 1–1 (0–1) 1.703.755.25 1.95 1.90
01.11.22 Luton – Reading 0–0 (0–0) 1.953.404.20 2.20 1.66

Watford away

Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
11.03.23 QPR – Watford 1–0 (1–0) 3.203.252.30 2.10 1.73
25.02.23 Sheffield United – Watford 1–0 (0–0) 1.853.603.80 2.02 1.83
14.02.23 Burnley – Watford 1–1 (0–1) 1.673.805.25 1.95 1.90
04.02.23 Reading – Watford 2–2 (0–1) 2.803.302.55 2.20 1.67
28.01.23 Middlesbrough – Watford 2–0 (2–0) 1.913.404.33 2.10 1.73
02.01.23 Norwich – Watford 0–1 (0–0) 1.913.603.80 1.98 1.88
30.12.22 Swansea – Watford 4–0 (1–0) 2.253.303.25 2.10 1.73
17.12.22 Huddersfield – Watford 0–2 (0–0) 3.753.302.10 2.20 1.67
12.11.22 Bristol City – Watford 0–0 (0–0) 3.003.402.37 2.00 1.85
02.11.22 Cardiff – Watford 1–2 (1–1) 2.903.202.50 2.10 1.72

Score badge: green win, amber draw, red loss for the team named above. Half-time score in brackets. Bold odds = the outcome that happened. A league code next to the date means the match was played in another league.

Head-to-head since 2021/2022, before this match

Luton winsDrawsWatford wins
1matches
4.00goals / match
100%over 2.5
0%both scored
Date Match Score 1 X 2 O U
23.10.22E1 Watford – Luton 4–0 (2–0) 2.203.303.40 2.10 1.72

England Championship table 2022/2023, before this match

All matches – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Burnley 38 24 12 2 74 29 +45 84
2 Sheffield United 37 21 7 9 58 33 +25 70
3 Middlesbrough 38 20 7 11 69 42 +27 67
4 Luton 38 17 13 8 46 35 +11 64
5 Blackburn 37 19 4 14 43 42 +1 61
6 Millwall 38 17 9 12 48 40 +8 60
7 Norwich 38 16 9 13 52 41 +11 57
8 Coventry 38 15 12 11 47 37 +10 57
9 West Brom 37 15 10 12 47 39 +8 55
10 Watford 38 14 13 11 45 40 +5 55
11 Sunderland 39 14 12 13 53 46 +7 54
12 Preston 38 14 11 13 34 43 -9 53
13 Stoke 38 13 9 16 48 45 +3 48
14 Bristol City 38 12 12 14 45 46 -1 48
15 Hull 38 12 11 15 43 53 -10 47
16 Swansea 38 12 10 16 51 57 -6 46
17 Birmingham 38 12 9 17 42 50 -8 45
18 Reading 38 13 6 19 40 58 -18 45
19 QPR 38 11 9 18 38 59 -21 42
20 Rotherham 37 9 13 15 41 51 -10 40
21 Cardiff 37 10 9 18 28 41 -13 39
22 Huddersfield 38 9 9 20 32 53 -21 36
23 Blackpool 38 8 11 19 40 58 -18 35
24 Wigan 38 7 13 18 33 59 -26 34
Home – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Burnley 20 14 6 0 43 13 +30 48
2 Blackburn 18 13 1 4 25 14 +11 40
3 Middlesbrough 19 11 6 2 36 14 +22 39
4 Sheffield United 18 11 3 4 35 17 +18 36
5 Millwall 19 10 5 4 29 17 +12 35
6 West Brom 19 10 5 4 26 15 +11 35
7 Reading 19 10 4 5 28 21 +7 34
8 Watford 19 9 6 4 28 17 +11 33
9 Coventry 19 9 6 4 24 17 +7 33
10 Bristol City 19 8 5 6 24 18 +6 29
11 Luton 19 7 8 4 24 19 +5 29
12 Norwich 19 8 4 7 27 22 +5 28
13 Swansea 19 8 3 8 30 28 +2 27
14 Rotherham 18 7 5 6 30 23 +7 26
15 Hull 19 7 4 8 21 26 -5 25
16 Sunderland 19 6 6 7 24 25 -1 24
17 Cardiff 19 6 6 7 16 17 -1 24
18 Stoke 19 6 5 8 23 21 +2 23
19 Birmingham 19 6 5 8 22 21 +1 23
20 Huddersfield 19 6 5 8 17 21 -4 23
21 QPR 19 6 4 9 20 27 -7 22
22 Blackpool 19 5 6 8 24 26 -2 21
23 Preston 19 5 6 8 14 22 -8 21
24 Wigan 19 3 6 10 14 32 -18 15
Away – league table
# Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Burnley 18 10 6 2 31 16 +15 36
2 Luton 19 10 5 4 22 16 +6 35
3 Sheffield United 19 10 4 5 23 16 +7 34
4 Preston 19 9 5 5 20 21 -1 32
5 Sunderland 20 8 6 6 29 21 +8 30
6 Norwich 19 8 5 6 25 19 +6 29
7 Middlesbrough 19 9 1 9 33 28 +5 28
8 Stoke 19 7 4 8 25 24 +1 25
9 Millwall 19 7 4 8 19 23 -4 25
10 Coventry 19 6 6 7 23 20 +3 24
11 Hull 19 5 7 7 22 27 -5 22
12 Watford 19 5 7 7 17 23 -6 22
13 Birmingham 19 6 4 9 20 29 -9 22
14 Blackburn 19 6 3 10 18 28 -10 21
15 West Brom 18 5 5 8 21 24 -3 20
16 QPR 19 5 5 9 18 32 -14 20
17 Bristol City 19 4 7 8 21 28 -7 19
18 Swansea 19 4 7 8 21 29 -8 19
19 Wigan 19 4 7 8 19 27 -8 19
20 Cardiff 18 4 3 11 12 24 -12 15
21 Blackpool 19 3 5 11 16 32 -16 14
22 Rotherham 19 2 8 9 11 28 -17 14
23 Huddersfield 19 3 4 12 15 32 -17 13
24 Reading 19 3 2 14 12 37 -25 11

Luton   Watford

Under / Over goals 2022/2023, before this match

Goals
All matches – Under/Over goals
#
1 3 Middlesbrough 38 14 24 1.8 1.1 20 7 11 69 42 67
2 16 Swansea 38 16 22 1.3 1.5 12 10 16 51 57 46
3 18 Reading 38 17 21 1.1 1.5 13 6 19 40 58 45
4 11 Sunderland 39 19 20 1.4 1.2 14 12 13 53 46 54
5 19 QPR 38 18 20 1.0 1.6 11 9 18 38 59 42
6 1 Burnley 38 19 19 1.9 0.8 24 12 2 74 29 84
7 7 Norwich 38 20 18 1.4 1.1 16 9 13 52 41 57
8 20 Rotherham 37 19 18 1.1 1.4 9 13 15 41 51 40
9 23 Blackpool 38 20 18 1.1 1.5 8 11 19 40 58 35
10 5 Blackburn 37 20 17 1.2 1.1 19 4 14 43 42 61
11 13 Stoke 38 21 17 1.3 1.2 13 9 16 48 45 48
12 15 Hull 38 21 17 1.1 1.4 12 11 15 43 53 47
13 17 Birmingham 38 21 17 1.1 1.3 12 9 17 42 50 45
14 2 Sheffield United 37 21 16 1.6 0.9 21 7 9 58 33 70
15 22 Huddersfield 38 22 16 0.8 1.4 9 9 20 32 53 36
16 24 Wigan 38 22 16 0.9 1.6 7 13 18 33 59 34
17 6 Millwall 38 23 15 1.3 1.1 17 9 12 48 40 60
18 12 Preston 38 23 15 0.9 1.1 14 11 13 34 43 53
19 10 Watford 38 24 14 1.2 1.1 14 13 11 45 40 55
20 14 Bristol City 38 24 14 1.2 1.2 12 12 14 45 46 48
21 4 Luton 38 26 12 1.2 0.9 17 13 8 46 35 64
22 8 Coventry 38 26 12 1.2 1.0 15 12 11 47 37 57
23 9 West Brom 37 26 11 1.3 1.1 15 10 12 47 39 55
24 21 Cardiff 37 28 9 0.8 1.1 10 9 18 28 41 39
Home – Under/Over goals
#
1 1 Burnley 20 8 12 2.1 0.7 14 6 0 43 13 48
2 16 Swansea 19 7 12 1.6 1.5 8 3 8 30 28 27
3 18 Reading 19 8 11 1.5 1.1 10 4 5 28 21 34
4 19 QPR 19 8 11 1.1 1.4 6 4 9 20 27 22
5 20 Rotherham 18 7 11 1.7 1.3 7 5 6 30 23 26
6 2 Sheffield United 18 8 10 1.9 0.9 11 3 4 35 17 36
7 3 Middlesbrough 19 9 10 1.9 0.7 11 6 2 36 14 39
8 11 Sunderland 19 9 10 1.3 1.3 6 6 7 24 25 24
9 7 Norwich 19 10 9 1.4 1.2 8 4 7 27 22 28
10 15 Hull 19 10 9 1.1 1.4 7 4 8 21 26 25
11 23 Blackpool 19 10 9 1.3 1.4 5 6 8 24 26 21
12 5 Blackburn 18 10 8 1.4 0.8 13 1 4 25 14 40
13 6 Millwall 19 11 8 1.5 0.9 10 5 4 29 17 35
14 10 Watford 19 11 8 1.5 0.9 9 6 4 28 17 33
15 13 Stoke 19 11 8 1.2 1.1 6 5 8 23 21 23
16 17 Birmingham 19 11 8 1.2 1.1 6 5 8 22 21 23
17 4 Luton 19 12 7 1.3 1.0 7 8 4 24 19 29
18 24 Wigan 19 12 7 0.7 1.7 3 6 10 14 32 15
19 12 Preston 19 13 6 0.7 1.2 5 6 8 14 22 21
20 14 Bristol City 19 13 6 1.3 0.9 8 5 6 24 18 29
21 22 Huddersfield 19 13 6 0.9 1.1 6 5 8 17 21 23
22 8 Coventry 19 14 5 1.3 0.9 9 6 4 24 17 33
23 9 West Brom 19 15 4 1.4 0.8 10 5 4 26 15 35
24 21 Cardiff 19 15 4 0.8 0.9 6 6 7 16 17 24
Away – Under/Over goals
#
1 3 Middlesbrough 19 5 14 1.7 1.5 9 1 9 33 28 28
2 11 Sunderland 20 10 10 1.4 1.1 8 6 6 29 21 30
3 16 Swansea 19 9 10 1.1 1.5 4 7 8 21 29 19
4 18 Reading 19 9 10 0.6 1.9 3 2 14 12 37 11
5 22 Huddersfield 19 9 10 0.8 1.7 3 4 12 15 32 13
6 5 Blackburn 19 10 9 0.9 1.5 6 3 10 18 28 21
7 7 Norwich 19 10 9 1.3 1.0 8 5 6 25 19 29
8 12 Preston 19 10 9 1.1 1.1 9 5 5 20 21 32
9 13 Stoke 19 10 9 1.3 1.3 7 4 8 25 24 25
10 17 Birmingham 19 10 9 1.1 1.5 6 4 9 20 29 22
11 19 QPR 19 10 9 0.9 1.7 5 5 9 18 32 20
12 23 Blackpool 19 10 9 0.8 1.7 3 5 11 16 32 14
13 24 Wigan 19 10 9 1.0 1.4 4 7 8 19 27 19
14 14 Bristol City 19 11 8 1.1 1.5 4 7 8 21 28 19
15 15 Hull 19 11 8 1.2 1.4 5 7 7 22 27 22
16 1 Burnley 18 11 7 1.7 0.9 10 6 2 31 16 36
17 6 Millwall 19 12 7 1.0 1.2 7 4 8 19 23 25
18 8 Coventry 19 12 7 1.2 1.1 6 6 7 23 20 24
19 9 West Brom 18 11 7 1.2 1.3 5 5 8 21 24 20
20 20 Rotherham 19 12 7 0.6 1.5 2 8 9 11 28 14
21 2 Sheffield United 19 13 6 1.2 0.8 10 4 5 23 16 34
22 10 Watford 19 13 6 0.9 1.2 5 7 7 17 23 22
23 4 Luton 19 14 5 1.2 0.8 10 5 4 22 16 35
24 21 Cardiff 18 13 5 0.7 1.3 4 3 11 12 24 15

U / O = matches with fewer / more goals than the line (both teams' goals). BTTS = both teams to score: Yes when both teams scored, No when at least one didn't. Pos = position in the league table. Click a column heading to sort; click again to reverse.

Results and odds courtesy of football-data.co.uk · updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:51