If you ever searched internet for a betting-related word or phrase, chances are your screen will be cluttered with offers to "make 2.899 $ weekly without any effort"; and if you regularly leave your mail address over internet, chances are your inbox will be congested with mails that remind you "Not to miss this chance of a lifetime - only 5 places left for this incredibly profitable system!".
So, I have always wondered how it comes there are still poor people? All it takes is to subscribe to one of those services mentioned above, and say goodbay to any financial trouble! They will do all the hard work for you, you just need to place your bets with several clicks of a mouse, and then watch the money pouring into your wallet, 399$, 189 EUR or 456.34 GBP day in, day out!
Of course, such a winnings will endanger bookmakers, they will realize you ruin their bussinness, and they will suspend or severely restrict your account; you will hop from one bookmaker to another, untill you eventually drain a shitload of money from them all, and all the bookmakers ban you from their sites.
But you don't have to worry - since you know it's such a profitable service, it will be well worth efforts to convince someone from your vicinity to open an account with bookmakers again and again, untill they are all banned or restricted, too.
After that, you will have no choice but to hire someone to do it for you. You know that those paid betting services regularly deliver 325$ a week, so it's a no brainer for you to offer someone 150$ a week to open and maintain accounts at bookmakers with the picks you provide; you will be still in profit 175$ a week, without virtually any efforts but to regularly check your mail or SMS for picks.
The catch is, word about those magnificient betting services will spread quickly worldwide; people are always eager to earn more money, it's one of the things you can't have too much of, along with education, clothes or children. So, they will start using the same services and earning 488 $ a week each!
Eventually, bookmakers will bankrupt and cease to exist. Or they will ban or restrict all the punters, so there will be no-one left to bet, so bookmakers will cease to exist, too.
But somehow, it does not happen. I see bookmakers still operate, I'd say more numerous than ever, and punters still whinge around about their losses. So something must have been wrong with above scenario, eh? Maybe people don't like the cash, or feel sorry for poor bokmakers, so they don't use these services to their full strength! Or, maybe, the picks didn't work as promised, maybe they delivered only 1.09 $ a month instead of 382 $ a day?
I'm not gonna say there are not people who make their living from betting; sure enough, there are, so betting is their bussinness, and if bussinness goes well, it's their golden hen. And betting is like any other trading bussinness: it adjusts itself, through the available odds, in accordance with public demand. So, if too many people demand the same product, its price will increase (which means the odds will drop) beyond profitability, or the market will be suspended entirely (often case of so-called "public bet", when every Joe and his dog rush to back the same team). That's the simple reason why mass betting services, those who would be delivered to thousands of people, will not work in a long term. If profitable bettors, those who make consistent profit, intend to share their picks, they will do it in a strictly closed forum, and not via mails sent to lists simply scrapped from a mail farm, like in this case:
Now, let's take a closer look at the offer I've just received in my mailbox...
This offer was so spectacular that i received it from several sources; the other ones look exactly like this one, but just received from different spamme… errrm, senders.
Anyone into betting will know that strike rate of 79% at odds of 4.50 is not a golden hen; it is botomless golden mine!
Let's look this system for a moment: let's say that average punter can afford to stake 10 GBP a match, if there are 3 matches per day. At the pace described in this mail, you'd place 90 bets a month; at strike rate they claim, 79%, you'd find 71 out of your 90 bets won. So, at average odds of 4.50, at the end of the month you would have 2.485 GBP of net profit in your pocket! And all that risking just 10 GBP at time!
If you reinvest half of your profit in next month with pretty moderate staking of 2% per bet (although you could easily go for 20% with this great system, ensuring you have sufficient funds for 5 bets - at strike rate of 79%, you are not expected to have more than 2.88 losing bets in a row over the course of 90 bets, so, for insurance, let's keep it at 4 losing bets in a row), at the end of next month you will have robbed bookmakers for 6.175 GBP. Continuing to reinvest only half of your profit each month (the other half you can use to buy more betting systems), you will earn your own very first million after only 8 months, and your bank account at the end of the year will be standing at whooping 38 millions!
I have neither time nor patience now to calculate the winnings for second year - I'm off to buy this magnificient system while it's still available!
I mean, I love this guy, he is pure genius, he is a new Salvador Dali! I read once that Mr. Dali used to sell banknotes of 10$ for 9$; this guy is willing to sell me 38 millions for only 15.95 quid! So how could I not love him, he's such a philanthropist!
On a serious note, though, number of sites that sell betting picks (or other sources, like newspapers that advertise picks sent via text messages) has been constantly growing, so there is obviously demand for such a content. Betting turned into industry long time ago; with growing availability of online payment gateways in last decade, we have witnessed ourselves that sales of picks, systems, seminars and other stuff that promise quick cash from betting has also become a huge industry, with its own marketplaces, rules and trends. Its turnover is probably high, otherwise it would extinct rather than grow.
What about services whose authors claim it would be delivered only to a small number of persons? For example, the invitation I recived this morning in my inbox:
If a service is really that good, it will not need an open promotion - the word will spread quickly so the author will not have to waste his time to promotion, as simple as that. Here, the seller targets only 20 persons, which surelly cannot impact the betting odds. In the same time, it means, eventual profit from his system is comparable with that figure, and is volatile - if he earned more from betting himself, he would not waste time on marketing and mailing of his picks. But his profit is either lower, either not reliable over the long run, so he rather stick to having 200 GBP from subscribers.
However, how can you know that he sent his picks to only 20 people? In world of web hosting, there is a term known as "overselling"; let's say, hosting provider owns a server with 100 GB disk space; he sells packages of 1 GB disk space each, which means he can place 100 customers on that server. However, he knows that very few customers use their entire space, so he comfortably places 200 customers on that server. Each customer believes he has 1 GB of disk space, but if they all tried to use 1 GB simultaneously, they would find themselves stucked. I am convinced the same logic applies here - customer prefers to buy a product which is in possession of only 19 more people... yet hundreds of people receive the same content.
The product is usually worth the money you pay for, no chance manufacturer will screw the price to the benefit of customer; he can do it only other way round, to its own benefit. If you buy North Face shoes, you are likely to enjoy hitch-hiking with them for years; but if you buy Khao-Jai-Mai shoes from the nearby Chinese shop, you are likely to look for the new ones very next month. So can you imagine the value of a system above, sold at 15.95 GBP for lifetime? Will it survive this month, let alone "months and years to come"? I highly doubt, but if you have 15.95 quid to waste, go on and check it!
I sometimes wonder who buys those services, who is foolish enough to believe such a claims. But, as a proverb says, each product eventually meets its buyer. If seller makes nice, attractive, appealing, convincing presentation of his product, eventually someone will get hooked. There are complete novices to sports betting; there are gamblers who lost a fortune, and are desperate to find their way to win back the money they lost; there are gamblers who can't win at specific sport, and they heard another sport is easire to maker profits, or those who heard sports trading at exchamges is guaranteed way to win; there are curious people, who believe 15.95 GBP is quite acceptable cost just to see what sort of picks will they deliver and how will they behave if they don't deliver profit as promised (I'd rather say when, not if)…
The bottom line is, if picks are indeed so profitable as their sellers claim, they would not sell them - they would bet for themselves and earn those money they promise you. Otherwise, they would not add small prints to their services, likes of "All types of betting involve risk, and [picks' seller] cannot be held liable for any financial losses incurred - you place bets at your own risk!"
So, you can't say you've not been warned - just read the offers carefully, and you'll find a reason why you should invest all your money into paid betting services: they are easiest way to lose your money on betting. If you choose and place the bets yourself, it takes time and efforts to spend the money; if you buy a betting system, you've spent the money in the glimpse of an eye! So, what are you waiting for?! Head over and buy a betting system! But don't buy it blindly - look at their site first; don't allow them to make you look foolish - profitability of the system has nothing to do with quality of their picks and betting knowledge, no! The more colours there are on their site and more money they promise to make, the system is better, and faster you will spend the money! I for one, wholeheartedly recommend THIS ONE!
For more systematic approach to this issue, read Football-Data.co.uk's article on Luck Versus Skill in Sports Betting: Analysing a Betting Record
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